A shootout loss for the Stars forced a split Saturday, though we still took home a small profit thanks to backing a pair of 'dogs.
It takes us to 10-2 in our last 12 bets as we look to keep the momentum going Monday.
Jets (+115) @ Oilers (-135)
I predicted the Jets to make the playoffs, and I'm feeling good about that a month into the campaign. They've been pretty strong thus far but are due for some regression. Through 14 games, they've played the Maple Leafs and Canadiens just once combined and have met the Senators five times.
Despite the soft schedule, the Jets are one of the league's worst teams at five-on-five, sitting 30th with just 43.96% of the expected goal share. They've owned a 50%-plus share just once over their last six games - in Saturday's loss to the Senators. The Oilers haven't exactly been incredible in this regard, but they're at least middle-of-the-pack with a 49.65% mark. Seven of Edmonton's 16 games have also come against the division's top two teams.
The Oilers are due for some positive regression. This is a kind price for them on home ice, especially with Pierre-Luc Dubois set to miss out again for Winnipeg.
Pick: Oilers (-135)
Flames (-130) @ Canucks (+110)
Editor's note: Updated to reflect Markstrom starting
The weight of a province was lifted off the Canucks on Saturday night. Having lost six straight, the Canucks were devoid of confidence and playing themselves out of the playoff picture. Playing eight of their first 16 games against the Leafs and Habs didn't help, but there was a lot more to it.
And it was a tough spot for them to be in. Firing Travis Green after last season's playoff run would have been a mistake. Quarantine rules make trading difficult - the Canucks wouldn't want to potentially wait two weeks after a deal for a spark, given the urgency of their situation. The answers had to come from within.
They put in great performances in the series finale against the Leafs and the opener versus the Flames but didn't have a single point to show for it. Desperation was surely setting in, and it showed on Saturday. The Canucks put forth arguably their best performance of the season in a 3-1 win over the Flames, outshooting them 46-19 and controlling 62.37% of the expected goal share at five-on-five.
I originally picked the Canucks, insisting we wait for word of a David Rittich start before locking anything in. Hopefully, you listened, because Calgary is again turning to Jacob Markstrom, who's been nothing short of excellent against Vancouver this season. With the Swede in goal, the Flames are in play at -130. They've been resilient, consistently responding to their worst performances with bounce-back efforts.
The Flames sit eighth in expected goal share at five-on-five and ninth in expected goals per 60 minutes. They'll generate plenty of chances against a Canucks defense that ranks dead last in expected goals against per 60 minutes and 26th in expected goal share at five-on-five. Calgary's loss Saturday was an anomaly against a desperate team; the disappointing effort means the Flames will have plenty left in the tank Monday.
Pick: Flames (-130)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
