NHL weekend betting preview: Buy the Avs at a bargain
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
We gave back Tuesday's profit with a 1-2 night on Thursday, so we'll look to stay in the black ahead of a busy weekend in the NHL.
Here are my favorite bets on the board.
Blue Jackets (-135) @ Blackhawks (+115)
Jan. 29, 8 p.m. ET
We have just one game slated for Friday night, but luckily, it's one I'm keen on betting. I wrote Thursday about the Blue Jackets' tendency to play a lot better their second time seeing a team. Well, this will be Game 1 against the Blackhawks, and it's also a bad spot for Columbus situationally.
The Blue Jackets played at home last night - beating the Panthers in a shootout - and had to fly out late to Chicago after an exhausting game to now take on a much-improved Blackhawks club. Both of these teams are dead-even at five-on-five, controlling 46% of their respective expected goal shares, and are each sitting at 45% when you incorporate special teams.
However, the perception here is the Blackhawks are much worse, which is the main reason for this line. They've been very competitive after a rough opening two-game set against the Lightning and seem to have found some stability in goal with Kevin Lankinen. Chicago is a good value bet at +110 or better.
Pick: Blackhawks (+115)
Islanders (+100) @ Flyers (-120)
Jan. 30, 7 p.m.
Regression looms for a Flyers team that's been among the worst at five-on-five this season. They sit 28th in the NHL with just a 44.4% expected goal share and dead last with a 43.03 Corsi for percentage. They've somehow managed to get out to a 5-2-1 start, but unless they experience a drastic uptick in performance at five-on-five, this team is going to struggle going forward.
The Islanders have been average in that regard, which is right on par with past seasons. You know what you're going to get from this team, and though it's struggled to get points early on, it's too well-coached for these results to continue.
Coming off three consecutive losses, this is an important spot for the Islanders. Expect a strong response from New York, which offers excellent value here at plus money.
Pick: Islanders (+100)
Avalanche (-140) @ Wild (+120)
The Wild have been dominant to start the season, leading the league with a 58.45 xGF% at five-on-five. They've been excellent at generating offense and strong at suppressing it, as well, coming into this game level on points with the Avalanche.
Not to discredit the Wild too much, but we have to take into account that those numbers are exaggerated thanks to the team playing its opening eight games against the Ducks, Kings, and Sharks. This is a massive step up in class, and there's still a big gulf between the two that's not being reflected in this line.
Colorado has a strong 54.48 xGF% and is second in the NHL with a 55.31 CF%. There's no reason to be concerned about the Avalanche despite their mediocre 5-3 start, and we get them at a bargain here thanks to Minnesota's hot start against weaker competition.
Pick: Avalanche (-140)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.