NHL weekend betting preview: 4 'dogs you should be backing
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We had a really nice start to the week, and then things got even better as we swept our Wednesday and Thursday card. This is officially a heater.
Let's keep the momentum going this weekend.
Rangers (+120) @ Penguins (-140); Jan. 22, 7 p.m. ET
This price is something of a gift with Pittsburgh depleted on the back end and Tristan Jarry confirmed as tonight's starter. The Penguins are without three left-handed defensemen with Mike Matheson, Marcus Pettersson, and Juuso Riikola injured, leaving them in quite a bind early in the season. That's especially concerning given the level of goaltending they've received thus far. Jarry has posted a miserable minus-1.26 GSAA through two starts.
Meanwhile, the Rangers have been a force since their disastrous opening night against the Islanders. In the two games since, the Rangers have owned a 59.7% share of the expected goals at five-on-five and an absurd 66.5% share at all strengths. They only have one win to show from those two games, largely due to MacKenzie Blackwood's heroics.
Don't expect Jarry to steal the show here, as his confidence will be tested early and often behind a patchwork defense, against a Rangers team that's really hitting its stride early on.
Pick: Rangers (+120)
Predators (-120) @ Stars (+100); Jan. 22, 8:30 p.m.
The only sense I can make of this line is oddsmakers are adjusting for it being the Stars' first game of the season. If so, it's an overcorrection. Dallas shouldn't be 'dogs against the Predators on home ice ever, even accounting for the minimal advantage it brings this season. The Stars haven't played yet, but the extra rest will have been welcomed following a deep playoff run while also affording them the luxury of an extra week of training camp.
Maybe I'm a sucker for biting, but the price is too good to pass up. The Predators have been below average at five-on-five through three games, owning just a 46.1% share of expected goals, a bottom-10 mark in the league. The Stars are one of the league's better five-on-five units and a bargain at the current number.
Pick: Stars (+100)
Senators (+140) @ Jets (-160), Jan. 23, 7 p.m.
We're getting a welcome discount on the Senators on Saturday following their 4-1 loss to the Jets in Ottawa on Thursday night. Truthfully, it was just one bad period that killed the Senators in that game, but they were the better team in the first and third, despite trailing 1-0 after 20 minutes. That's five of six periods the Senators have completely outplayed the Jets at five-on-five, yet have just one point to show for it after blowing a late lead in Wednesday's overtime loss.
Still, if we learned anything over the back-to-back, Ottawa has no issue playing with the Jets. Winnipeg has struggled as a whole this season since a strong opening game against the Flames, suggesting this team is due for regression if its performance doesn't improve.
Add in the fact this is the first game of a back-to-back for the Jets, who are expected to start Laurent Brossoit on Saturday, saving Connor Hellebuyck for Sunday's game against the Oilers, and we're getting a gift of a price here. This is a Senators team due for one against a Jets team they've largely dominated over the last 120 minutes.
Pick: Senators (+140)
Golden Knights (TBD) @ Coyotes (TBD), Jan. 24, 7 p.m.
It's possible I'll be on the Coyotes on Friday and Sunday, but as of now, there's not enough value with Friday's price for me to bite, and I'd rather go against the Knights with Marc-Andre Fleury in net. Vegas has been good about alternating goalies, so the expectation is we see Fleury start Sunday.
The Coyotes have won just once through their first four games, ahead of their weekend doubleheader against the Knights, but the numbers show they've been a bit unlucky. They lost on opening night to the Sharks despite controlling 56.5% of the expected goal share and then managed an almost unheard of 69.1% split in their 5-2 loss to Vegas on Wednesday.
They're playing good hockey, and it's only a matter of time before results start to follow. Arizona is a bet for me on Sunday night, assuming Fleury and Darcy Kuemper get the respective starts in goal and the line sits at +160 or longer.
Pick: Coyotes (+160 or better)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.