Stanley Cup odds update, analysis: Golden Knights now lead the pack
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The perceived gap between contenders and pretenders in the NHL has begun to grow as we enter the second half of the season.
But really, how important are the standings at the halfway point? Everyone knows about the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues going from last on Jan. 3 to Stanley Cup champions, and while they're certainly an extreme example, a look back at past winners shows that the midpoint of the campaign is hardly a reliable indicator of future success.
In fact, since the 2004-05 lockout season (excluding the shortened 2013 campaign), just three of the 13 Stanley Cup champions were leading their conference on Jan. 3, and none were since 2010. Seven were actually positioned fourth or lower, meaning there's still plenty of value to be found in the futures market right now.
Here are the updated odds and a closer look at some risers and fallers:
| Team | Previous odds (12/2) | Current odds (1/6) |
|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 12-1 | 7-1 |
| Boston Bruins | 7-1 | 8-1 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| St. Louis Blues | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| Washington Capitals | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 14-1 | 12-1 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 12-1 | 12-1 |
| Dallas Stars | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 30-1 | 14-1 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 16-1 | 16-1 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| New York Islanders | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| Calgary Flames | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Florida Panthers | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| Nashville Predators | 20-1 | 30-1 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 25-1 | 40-1 |
| Minnesota Wild | 80-1 | 50-1 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 40-1 | 50-1 |
| San Jose Sharks | 20-1 | 50-1 |
Only showing teams with odds 50-1 or shorter.
Vegas Golden Knights (7-1)
Previous odds: 12-1
Last month, I wrote at length about Vegas as a quintessential buy-low candidate. At the time, the Golden Knights were listed at 14-1 and they've since seen their odds slashed in half as a result of their record more closely mirroring their impressive underlying numbers. They now lead the Pacific Division and, with all due respect to the Arizona Coyotes, shouldn't have any issue holding down the top spot down the stretch. Unfortunately, the time to buy low on Vegas is long gone. There's no value at 7-1.
Pittsburgh Penguins (14-1)
Previous odds: 30-1
The Penguins have seen their odds cut in half after posting a remarkable 10-2 record in December, which has pushed them into a share of third place in the Eastern Conference. But a lot of teams go through big winning streaks without seeing their odds shorten so drastically, so why the big move for Pittsburgh? Well, no team's depth has been tested quite this much. Among players to miss prolonged spells this season are Evgeni Malkin (13 games), Bryan Rust (14), Kris Letang (eight), Patrick Hornqvist (17), Alex Galchenyuk (nine), Brian Dumoulin (19), and none other than Sidney Crosby, who's been limited to just 17 games and remains on injured reserve.
Making matters even worse, Jake Guentzel is set to miss the remainder of this season with a shoulder injury suffered on Dec. 30. Losing their leading scorer might be too much for the Penguins to overcome - and it makes them tough to back at short odds - so sell high on this team and wait for its price to come down again. It almost certainly will.
New York Islanders (25-1)
Previous odds: 20-1
Despite being pegged by many, including myself, as a likely candidate for regression this season, the Barry Trotz-led Islanders sat near the top of the NHL after two months with a 16-3-1 record. What's followed, though, is perhaps a more accurate representation of this team. The Islanders have played just below .500 hockey in 21 games since their hot start, and they've seen their Stanley Cup odds lengthen as a result. In a strong Metropolitan Division, another mediocre stretch could see them fall into a wild-card spot, or even out of the playoffs altogether.
Edmonton Oilers (40-1)
Previous odds: 25-1
Connor McDavid is the best player in the world and Leon Draisaitl isn't far behind him, but those two can only take the Oilers so far. Both stars are on pace to smash their previous career highs in points, yet Edmonton is still struggling to hold onto a playoff spot. The Oilers have posted a 16-16-5 record since starting the season 7-1, and they'll be outside the playoff picture if the teams below them win their games in hand. The latest 40-1 odds are appropriate for what's essentially a .500 hockey team.
San Jose Sharks (50-1)
Previous odds: 20-1
The Sharks endured a brutal start to the campaign and haven't quite been able to recover. They won nine of 10 games during a stretch in November but quickly followed that up with a 2-5-1 run that resulted in the firing of coach Peter DeBoer. Bob Boughner was appointed on an interim basis, but the coaching change hasn't galvanized the Sharks, who've posted a 4-5-2 record since that time. San Jose now sits seven points out of a playoff spot, and its chances of qualifying are down to 3%, according to The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.