The Western Conference finals feature two teams that have never won a Stanley Cup in the St. Louis Blues and the San Jose Sharks.
The Sharks have never advanced to the championship round, while the Blues haven't reached it since 1970, when they were posterized by Bobby Orr.
The fortunes of one franchise will change over the next four-to-seven games, leaving the other to wear the underachiever tag for at least another year.
Here are three reasons why the Blues will be singing anything but once the dust has settled in this series.
The well runs deep
The fact the Blues outlasted the Chicago Blackhawks and Dallas Stars in back-to-back seven-game series is a testament to the depth of talent put together by general manager Doug Armstrong.
No fewer than a dozen players have recorded at least five points over the course of those 14 games, with half hitting double digits. At the same time, the Blues have limited the likes of Patrick Kane and Jamie Benn to well below average production.
The Sharks have serious bite, boasting three top-10 regular-season scorers in Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, and Brent Burns. On top of that, Logan Couture absolutely torched the Nashville Predators in the second round with 11 points in seven games.
The Blues, however, have three balanced scoring lines that can get the better of the opposition on any given night, with the trio of Robby Fabbri, Paul Stastny, and Troy Brouwer playing as well as any line left in the postseason.
The fact that Blues third line is Berglund, Steen and Backes should scare Sharks. https://t.co/XekzblTHVK
— Kevin Kurz (@KKurzCSN) May 14, 2016
The Blues have the wherewithal to counter the most potent of offensive attacks with a balanced, structured, and physical one of their own, and that will pay dividends against a top-heavy Sharks team.
Battle-tested Elliott
Brian Elliott has developed a reputation for being a good regular-season goalie incapable of carrying a team deep into the playoffs, but he's certainly showing big-game ability this time around.
The 31-year-old has posted a save percentage of .929 through 14 games this postseason, and risen to the occasion by stopping 62 of 65 shots against in two Game 7 situations.
Martin Jones has been solid in net for the Sharks (.918 save percentage), but Elliott - who boasts the added advantage of having the legendary Martin Brodeur in his corner - has been straight-up better all season long.
Compare their save percentages in five-on-five play through the regular season and playoffs:
- Elliott - 56 GP, .939
- Jones - 77 GP, .926
The Blues have a clear advantage in net, and that can't be overlooked.
Possession and special teams
Goaltending is incredibly important at this time of year, but series are often won in the realm of special teams and possession.
When it comes to possession, both teams are fairly even when it comes to total shot attempts (Corsi) and unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick) at even strength. This chart shows the teams' respective success rates in the regular season and playoffs combined - and don't forget the advantage the Blues have in save percentage.
| Blues | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 51.26 | Corsi For % | 51.04 |
| 51.46 | Fenwick For % | 52.47 |
While the power plays are nearly equal, the Blues have been able to kill penalties more consistently than the Sharks (again, this chart includes regular season and playoffs together).
| Blues | Situation | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 23.1% | PP | 23.6% |
| 84.5% | PK | 80.7% |
In short, these lubs are fairly even in terms of possession and on the power play, but St. Louis has a distinct advantage on the penalty kill and in five-on-five save percentage.
This series does appear set to go long, but look for the Blues to prevail in the end.
(Advanced statistical information courtesy: Corsica Hockey)
