3e:I[29208,["/_next/static/chunks/2jhrjnncm5raz.js","/_next/static/chunks/1gw-kb5iisnl3.js","/_next/static/chunks/1yt446igj3lq7.js","/_next/static/chunks/0l-6rirxtdwmo.js","/_next/static/chunks/2garizayuhlpl.js","/_next/static/chunks/3-0vwtd1eg-pp.js","/_next/static/chunks/2udqgiyebnpne.js","/_next/static/chunks/2l-gom9jx5wxg.js","/_next/static/chunks/0dsjsiwpje-72.js","/_next/static/chunks/3vdprxpabg9bg.js","/_next/static/chunks/0s7b7lxeeaa3w.js"],"default"] 3a:T2359,

Imagine a world where it doesn't matter who's the starting signal-caller in the NFL. Like any good bettor, we fight the concept that the quarterback is the be-all and end-all. But that's usually an argument relative to the overall valuation of a team. When it comes to betting markets, that's the universe where the 49ers reside, as it doesn't matter whether it's Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or maybe even Sam Darnold playing quarterback.

Apparently, Kyle Shanahan is just on that level. It seemed to matter for a while that Jimmy Garoppolo started San Francisco's games. But then Purdy was thrust into action last year and went full DJ Khaled - all he did was win - until he broke his arm in the NFC Championship Game.

Beyond a lack of concern about the quarterback, the other point of emphasis for how the betting market feels about the 49ers (11-6 ATS last year) is that the NFC might stink.

We dealt with the AFC in recent weeks, often alluding to the conference's loaded list of quarterbacks. It's fitting we start the NFC portion with San Francisco, projected as the conference's second-best team despite what would typically be a question mark at the most important position.

2023 season odds

MARKET	ODDS (O/U)
Win total	10.5 (-140/+120)
Division	-155
Conference	+400
Super Bowl	+900
Estimated rating	63/100

The 49ers' win total can be found at 11.5, with their under juiced as high as -165, or 10.5 with their over juiced to -140. Either way, that middle point of 11 projected wins suggests a .647 win percentage. In a relatively weak division within the weaker conference, the number should dip if we translate that to a league-wide rating. As such, we'll call the 49ers a 63/100.

Schedule outlook

WEEK	OPPONENT	LOOKAHEAD LINE
1	@PIT	SF -3
2	@LAR	SF -4.5
3	NYG	SF -6
4	ARI	SF -9.5
5	DAL	SF -2.5
6	@CLE	SF -1
7	@MIN	SF -2.5
8	CIN	SF -1
10	@JAX	SF -1
11	TB	SF -7.5
12	@SEA	SF -1.5
13	@PHI	PHI -2.5
14	SEA	SF -4
15	@ARI	SF -6.5
16	BAL	SF -3
17	@WSH	SF -3.5
18	LAR	SF -7

While our estimated rating calculations have often worked nicely in figuring out why various point spreads are what they are this season, it feels like San Francisco could be rated higher than 63.

If we take the 27-point scale we've been using to determine point spreads, the 49ers are worth 17 points. They visit a Steelers (55/100) team worth 14.85 in Week 1. That makes San Francisco just over two points better than Pittsburgh, which means this line should be close to pick'em. San Francisco is a field goal favorite.

Confusingly, the 49ers are also projected to be favored in all but one of their games this season. They appear to be rated higher on a game-to-game basis than in season-long markets.

What's to like about the 49ers

Even a casual NFL fan should be familiar with San Francisco since it's made the playoffs in three of the last four seasons and played nine postseason games over the stretch. That level of exposure and success, along with minimal roster turnover, means we know what we're getting from the Niners.

The 49ers' front office has done another good job managing key roster departures - Mike McGlinchey, Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Moseley - with veteran plug-ins thanks to an inexpensive quarterback room. The biggest names are all back on both sides of the ball, and Shanahan is still there to call the plays for whoever takes the snaps.

What's not to like about the 49ers

While Shanahan's the constant, the offensive coaching staff has taken hits year after year, and losing Demeco Ryans to the Texans is a big deal. He replaced Robert Saleh. Steve Wilks comes in as defensive coordinator after a successful stint in Carolina, but there's lost continuity. On the field, the secondary - always something of a concern with "the Faithful" - continues to get thinner.

With McGlinchey scoring a big payday from the Broncos, the 49ers' depth chart lists 2020 fifth-round pick Colton McKivitz as the starter at right tackle next to Spencer Burford. If you were looking to put the heat on their young quarterback, the defensive left side would be your attack point.

Other notable betting markets

PLAYER	MARKET	ODDS
Brock Purdy	MVP	+5000
	Most passing yards	+7000
	Most passing TD	+4000
Trey Lance	Comeback POTY	+3500
Christian McCaffrey	MVP	+8000
	Offensive POTY	+1500
	Most rushing yards	+3500
	Most rushing TD	+2500
	Most receptions	+4000
Deebo Samuel	Offensive POTY	+4000
	Most receptions	+7500
	Most receiving yards	+5000
	Most receiving TD	+4000
Nick Bosa	Defensive POTY	+1200
	Most sacks	+550
Fred Warner	Defensive POTY	+4500
Kyle Shanahan	Coach of the Year	+3000

Nick Bosa is +550 to defend his 2022 season sack title but has odds twice as long to get credit as the best defender in the league, which is intriguing.

The offense is expected to run through Christian McCaffrey after he recorded 1,200 total yards in just 11 games with the 49ers last season. With a young quarterback relying on him heavily and a real shot at 2,000 all-purpose yards, he'll be in the conversation for Offensive Player of the Year.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

3b:T2359,

Beyond a lack of concern about the quarterback, the other point of emphasis for how the betting market feels about the 49ers (11-6 ATS last year) is that the NFC might stink.

2023 season odds

MARKET	ODDS (O/U)
Win total	10.5 (-140/+120)
Division	-155
Conference	+400
Super Bowl	+900
Estimated rating	63/100

Schedule outlook

WEEK	OPPONENT	LOOKAHEAD LINE
1	@PIT	SF -3
2	@LAR	SF -4.5
3	NYG	SF -6
4	ARI	SF -9.5
5	DAL	SF -2.5
6	@CLE	SF -1
7	@MIN	SF -2.5
8	CIN	SF -1
10	@JAX	SF -1
11	TB	SF -7.5
12	@SEA	SF -1.5
13	@PHI	PHI -2.5
14	SEA	SF -4
15	@ARI	SF -6.5
16	BAL	SF -3
17	@WSH	SF -3.5
18	LAR	SF -7

While our estimated rating calculations have often worked nicely in figuring out why various point spreads are what they are this season, it feels like San Francisco could be rated higher than 63.

Confusingly, the 49ers are also projected to be favored in all but one of their games this season. They appear to be rated higher on a game-to-game basis than in season-long markets.

What's to like about the 49ers

What's not to like about the 49ers

Other notable betting markets

PLAYER	MARKET	ODDS
Brock Purdy	MVP	+5000
	Most passing yards	+7000
	Most passing TD	+4000
Trey Lance	Comeback POTY	+3500
Christian McCaffrey	MVP	+8000
	Offensive POTY	+1500
	Most rushing yards	+3500
	Most rushing TD	+2500
	Most receptions	+4000
Deebo Samuel	Offensive POTY	+4000
	Most receptions	+7500
	Most receiving yards	+5000
	Most receiving TD	+4000
Nick Bosa	Defensive POTY	+1200
	Most sacks	+550
Fred Warner	Defensive POTY	+4500
Kyle Shanahan	Coach of the Year	+3000

Nick Bosa is +550 to defend his 2022 season sack title but has odds twice as long to get credit as the best defender in the league, which is intriguing.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Wisconsin music legend Les Paul is in the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame and the National Inventors Hall of Fame for the creation of the solid-body guitar. Aaron Rodgers is headed for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but his attempt at broadcasting glory as host of "Jeopardy!" won't result in another enshrinement for him.

Paul was the godfather to Steve Miller, who grew up in Milwaukee but moved to the Bay Area to create his eponymously-named band. With this classic matchup between the 49ers and Packers, and Rodgers mirroring Miller's move, we'll turn back the clock to the Steve Miller Band for a classic rock theme for our player prop picks on Saturday night.

"The Joker"

You might think I'm kidding, but I'm going to fade Davante Adams with my best player prop play in this game. That sounds crazy when you look at the box score from Week 3 and see that Adams had 12 catches for 132 yards the last time versus San Francisco. However, that was against a secondary that had Josh Norman, Dontae Johnson, and Deommodore Lenoir play a collective 95 total snaps opposite of Emmanuel Moseley. Meanwhile, K'Waun Williams played just six snaps.

By comparison, that trio played a total of seven snaps last week - all Johnson - while a healthy Williams played 62 and rookie cornerback Ambry Thomas played all 72. Thomas didn't play at all until Week 14, but the 49ers have now sorted out the personnel in their secondary.

We'll take the under on Adams, hoping that Rodgers' pinpoint downfield accuracy will be affected by the cold of January at Lambeau Field and that the 49ers can keep the wideout's average yards per catch down - allowing us to "Take The Money And Run."

Pick: Adams under 94.5 receiving yards

A TD that's definitely going to happen

We can't talk all week about the 49ers' ability to take advantage of the Packers' porous run defense, as we did in the game preview, and then ignore Elijah Mitchell's odds of scoring a touchdown. While Deebo Samuel is San Francisco's "Space Cowboy" with outside runs near the goal line, Kyle Shanahan is fine with having Jimmy Garoppolo hand the ball off for a run through the line where Green Bay is vulnerable.

Pick: Mitchell anytime touchdown (+130)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

Shanahan can be a play-calling magician from the sideline, and Rodgers can be one on the field. We're looking for some "Abracadabra" in a long shot touchdown scorer, and if we had seen the 49ers' "Number 5" on the field recently, I'd try Trey Lance (+600) to score like he did with no time left in the first half the last time these teams met.

At his age, he doesn't "Fly Like An Eagle," but Green Bay's veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis does get looks in the end zone from Rodgers. San Francisco is required to focus on Adams and the Packers' tailbacks near the goal line, which should allow Lewis to use his ample size in one-on-one situations to get position in the end zone.

Pick: Lewis anytime touchdown (+650)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

3d:T138f,

"The Joker"

Pick: Adams under 94.5 receiving yards

A TD that's definitely going to happen

Pick: Mitchell anytime touchdown (+130)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

Pick: Lewis anytime touchdown (+650)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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