Two AFC division leaders meet in a potential playoff preview Sunday night, as the red-hot New England Patriots square off against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium.
New England (7-2) has won five consecutive games and ought to be well-rested coming off its bye week. During the winning streak, Tom Brady has thrown 18 touchdowns against a lone interception.
Indianapolis (6-3) has won five of its last six games and is led by MVP candidate Andrew Luck at quarterback. Luck has thrown for a league-high 3,085 yards this season, and the Colts are looking to extend their two-game division lead over the Houston Texans.
Here's what you need to know:
Time-of-possession battle may be the key to victory
Indianapolis enters Sunday's game with the top-ranked offense by most traditional metrics (yards, points per game). The Colts manage the clock better than any other team in the NFL and lead the league in time of possession. If the Colts jump out to an early lead, they can suffocate their opponent.
New England's offense has been firing on all cylinders and may be the perfect antidote to the Colts' clock-eating tactics. Brady has been known to go into the hurry-up offense to throw opposing defenses off balance, and will likely target Colts cornerback Greg Toler often.
The Colts will try to employ their typical method of attack by sustaining long drives down the field. The task is easier said than done against a resurgent Patriots defense, but the Colts' ability to move the chains will dictate the game's outcome. Usually, the best defense against New England is to limit Brady and company's number of possessions.
How do the Colts account for Rob Gronkowski?
Gronkowski is back at full strength and has been unstoppable, catching four touchdowns in his last two games. His combination of size, speed and strength is tough for any defense to contain, but could be a particular problem for the Colts, who are poorly equipped to deal with elite tight ends on paper.
Star cornerback Vontae Davis will have to shadow Julian Edelman or Brandon LaFell, leaving Gronkowski against a linebacker or safety. At 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds, strong safety Sergio Brown has the best chance of slowing Gronkowski down.
The Colts' defense will have to account for Gronkowski at all times, likely creating opportunities for LaFell, Edelman, or fellow tight end Tim Wright. All eyes will be on No. 87 - and it still may not be enough.
The Vontae Davis effect
Davis has been the definition of a shutdown cornerback this season, holding opposing quarterbacks to an abysmal 41.1 QB rating when he's been targeted. The Colts star has taken away his side of the field consistently, primarily playing at right cornerback.
So which Patriots receiver will be isolated against him? The shiftier, speedier Edelman could pose problems, but Davis is physical enough to bully him off the line. At 6-foot-3, 210 pounds, LaFell is physical enough to ward off Davis, but isn't as quick as the cornerback.
Brady will likely find success against the rest of the shaky Colts secondary, but it's worth watching Davis, as he's bound to take away one of the Patriots' top options.
