The fifth Sunday of the NFL season has come and gone. I had a second consecutive winning week, posting a 4-2 ATS record on my recommended wagers (although you may have went 5-1 betting my plays as a more favorable line was available on San Francisco after my Friday preview). My pool plays also went 9-4 ATS using Friday’s lines, so you would have likely had a solid week if you were playing all of my predictions.
Week 5 looked like it was headed towards being a major dud with a number of games that looked like blowouts early on, but it produced some of the most exciting action of the season. I can count at least a handful of occasions when I was on the verge of having a stroke, which is bad for my health, but good for the average football fan. Anyways, there’s a lot to talk about this week, so let’s get to it.
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Panthers 24, Bears 17
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Panthers 31, Bears 24
This was just one of many games on Sunday where I have no idea how it ended the way it did. I mean, I picked the Panthers to win, but the series of events that transpired was truly mindboggling.
It all started with Philly Brown’s 79-yard punt return touchdown for the Panthers early in the first quarter. Brown got leveled, fumbled the ball, and then somehow picked it up and returned it for a touchdown in a moment that literally made me spit out my beer all over myself. After that, the Bears seemed to settle down. Chicago reeled off three straight touchdowns to go up 14 points and it looked like this game was simply out of reach for the Panthers. But this is the NFL, and no lead is insurmountable.
Robbie Gould, who is 91% in his career from 30-39 yards out, shanked a 35-yard field goal which would have put the Bears up by 17, and it all went downhill from there. Carolina proceeded to start putting together some lengthy drives. Jay Cutler proceeded to start pissing himself in front of the 73,000 in attendance at Bank of America Stadium, and before you knew it, it was the Bears chasing the lead. Chicago got the ball back inside the last two minutes to try to tie it, but Cutler was sacked on 2nd & 4th down, and that was that.
No one really deserved to win this game, but Carolina did less to lose it. Both teams combined for seven turnovers, but Carolina’s proved to be less back breaking. Both teams are also pretty awful, and should be good fade material for the rest of the season.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Titans 20, Browns 16
Wager: Titans -2
Final Score: Browns 29, Titans 28
I considered skipping this recap altogether because I’m sure I’ll hit a dangerously high level of blood pressure as I write this. I’d like to say that I was caught off guard by this miracle comeback, but the truth is that I was never actually comfortable with my Titans wager, even when they were up big.
Tennessee looked pretty good early on. Jake Locker missed a few throws here and there, but he made up for it with some big plays, including an 11-yard touchdown run to put the Titans up 14-0 early in the second quarter. Locker received a massive cheap shot via forearm to the head after he had already crossed the goal line, which immediately was a cause for concern, but he managed to come back out for the next Titans’ drive.
It didn’t take long for the former Washington standout to get himself hurt again though, as he suffered a hand injury when his arm followed through into a defender’s helmet. I saw Charlie Whitehurst grab his helmet on the sideline and immediately headed towards the liquor cabinet in search of my strongest alcohol.
Whitehurst wasn’t all that bad. He exhibited some pretty outstanding accuracy on an 11-yard touchdown pass to Kendall Wright, and then hooked up with Justin Hunter on a long touchdown shortly thereafter. The Titans were up 28-3 and Titans’ backers everywhere were already counting their cash. And then Ken Whisenhunt struck.
Whisenhunt should be used to playing with an occasional lead. He was the OC is San Diego last season and had a decent team in Arizona for five years before that, so I found it puzzling that he was clueless as to what to do with the lead. For some god forsaken reason, Whitehurst was asked to continuing airing the ball out. I guess it would have made too much sense to run the ball against a Cleveland defense that gives up 5.0 yards per carry. And if that wasn’t enough, Whisenhunt inexplicably went for it on 4th & 1 from their own 42-yard line with three minutes left in the game, predictably getting stuffed on a Whitehurst quarterback sneak. The players on the field obviously have to take a large part of the blame, but this loss is on Whisenhunt as much as anyone else.
The Browns completed the largest regular season comeback by a road team in NFL history. Credit goes to Cleveland for the comeback but it shouldn’t even have been possible if the game was managed properly. Tennessee gets slotted right next to Jacksonville on the “no bet” list for the time being (they’re both conveniently playing each other next week).
St. Louis Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Rams 26, Eagles 23
Wager: Rams +7
Final Score: Eagles 34, Rams 28
This game couldn’t have started out any worse for the Rams. For some inconceivable reason, they decided it would be a great idea to run three consecutive passes on their first drive, all of which ended in incompletions. As if that wasn’t bad enough, their punt on that drive was blocked and returned for a touchdown by the Eagles, who evidently have the most elite special teams punt blocking unit in NFL history.
The comedy didn’t stop there. Check out this series of tweets that I made on Sunday afternoon:
Nick Foles luckboxing again. Unbelievable. Should have never even thrown that ball.
Austin Davis slides feet first at the first down marker. Dive forward you idiot. Punt, unnecessary roughness, Eagles in Rams territory.
Foles another terrible toss. Rams DB drops it... although it was a tough INT.
FOLES IS SO TRASH. My God, this Rams secondary cannot catch a duck.
JARED COOK CAUGHT A BALL. STOP THE F***ING PRESSES.
Not too late to bring in Shaun Hill, Jeff. Swallow that pride.
Seven penalties for the Rams already. Nice coaching Fish.
Eagles return TD. What else is new?
At this point I'm cheering for the Eagles to build up the largest margin possible.
Eagles have four special teams TDs and three on defense this season. Offense has 10 touchdowns.
Despite this complete and utter debacle though, the Rams somehow rallied from a 27-point deficit to make it a one score game. Austin Davis had a second half akin to Dan Marino in his prime, and led a drive into Eagles’ territory with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, Davis didn’t get any help from his name partner, Austin Pettis, who dropped two catches on the final drive to gift wrap the win for the Eagles.
It feels weird to say that I don’t know how the Eagles managed to win a game in which they led by 27 points, but I really don’t know how they managed to win again this week. Philadelphia is going nowhere fast. Nick Foles stinks, their defense is terrible, and Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense isn’t fooling anyone anymore.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Prediction: Giants 31, Falcons 20
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Giants 30, Falcons 20
The first half of this one looked very familiar for Giants’ fans. Ben McAdoo dialing up toss plays on 3rd & 10, Eli having all day in the pocket and scrambling for two yard losses, defense missing tackles—the list goes on and on and on. There were positives from New York though. The Giants held the Falcons to a pair of 20-yard field goals which proved to be huge as they mounted a comeback in the second half.
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly when the wheels fell off for Atlanta, but the wheels did indeed fall off. The Giants had taken back momentum, going ahead 23-20 early in the fourth quarter, and that seemed to be it for Atlanta as their makeshift offensive line just couldn’t keep Matt Ryan upright. The Giants seemed to pressure Ryan on seemingly every dropback including a sack on fourth down that sealed the win for New York.
Something to keep an eye going forward will be the status of Giants’ running back Rashad Jennings, who left the contest with a knee injury. Andre Williams wasn’t as effective as Jennings, although that likely will be a non-issue against the Eagles next week, as they’re capable of turning a subpar back into the second coming of Barry Sanders. As for Atlanta, put a fork in them. Too many injuries on the offensive line and no semblance of any defense whatsoever means I’ll be fading them heavily going forward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Saints 38, Bucs 17
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Saints 37, Bucs 31 (OT)
It’s hard not to be down on the Saints right now. You can argue that “a win is a win”, but this certainly wasn’t an impressive showing follow New Orleans’ embarrassing loss to Dallas in primetime last week.
The biggest cause for concern has to be the play of Drew Brees, who just doesn’t look like the same quarterback we’ve seen in years past. Brees was dreadful this week, and that’s an understatement. He was telegraphing passes all day long and it seemed like the majority of New Orleans’ catches came on some spectacular play by a receiver.
He also threw possibly the worst interception I’ve ever seen in my life. Brees was so bad that he even rattled the FOX commentators, who believed he was looking distressed with head coach “Peyton Manning on the Saints sideline." Some of Brees’ ineffectiveness can be attributed to the absence of tight end Jimmy Graham, who left the game with a shoulder injury and didn’t return, but I’m not giving Brees a free pass because of what we’ve seen in other games this season. This offense looks like it has some major issues.
It was looking as though the Bucs had this in the bag until I tweeted this, which had the predictable reverse mush effect (Reverse mushes are known to work approximately 99% of the time when tweeted by me). Mike Glennon proceeded to take a safety, allowing the Saints to get the ball back with good field position, and tie the game on a Shayne Graham 44-yard field goal. That seemed to be a major pick me up for the Saints, who won the coin toss at the start of overtime and took the ball the length of the field for a game-winning touchdown.
This man’s survivor entry lives to see another day and so do the Saints, who now have a full two weeks to prepare for a big matchup at Detroit in Week 7.
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Cowboys 28, Texans 24
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Cowboys 20, Texans 17 (OT)
The Texans really had no business being in this game, but Dallas did some typical Dallas things to make sure that this was an enjoyable contest on Sunday. Whether it was DeMarco Murray fumbling in the red zone (again), Terrance Williams dropping passes at the Houston goal line, or Tony Romo throwing an interception in the end zone, the Cowboys were making the same mistakes that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing time and time again. Dan Bailey even got in on the action this time, missing a long field goal at the end of regulation which would have given Dallas the victory (he had converted 30 straight field goals prior to that miss).
Fortunately, Houston was just as inept. Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed an interception to Orlando Scandrick, where it looked like Scandrick was the intended receiver on the play. Fitzy didn’t get much help either as his receivers hung him out to dry with several drops. With both teams making countless errors, it was fitting that this game went into the extra period.
The Texans won the coin toss and moved the ball into Cowboys’ territory, but punted on 4th & 2 at the Dallas 48. Maybe I’m too much of a gambler, but I thought that would have been a great opportunity for the Texans to go for it. I probably also would have went for a two-point conversion to win the game on the touchdown that they scored with 41 seconds left in the fourth quarter, but what do I know? Anyways, Dallas got the ball back, carved up the Texans’ defense, yada, yada, yada, and they’re now tied for the best record in the NFL at 4-1.
Oh, and play of the year candidate by Tony Romo.
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
Prediction: Bills 19, Lions 17
Wager: Bills +7
Final Score: Bills 17, Lions 14
Another game, another head-scratcher. I predicted the Bills to beat the Lions outright, but I didn’t expect them to come from fourteen points down to do it. Detroit seemingly had the game in control following a horrendous Kyle Orton pick six, but if there’s anything we’ve learned from the Lions over the years, no lead is safe, and this was just another example of it.
I don’t know what the Lions’ fan base has done to deserve this pain, but the series of events that took place for Buffalo to come from behind is just comical. Sure, Buffalo’s defense came up huge, limiting Matthew Stafford to 221 yards in the dome, but this victory doesn’t happen if Megatron doesn’t leave the game with an injury, and if Alex Henery (a professional kicker whose only job is to kick) could have kicked a single field goal on his three attempts. I don’t know what it is with Lions’ kickers and their inability to make a field goal, but I’m convinced that Detroit should never attempt a field goal ever again.
It looks like all the problems that plagued Jim Schwartz in Detroit are now plaguing Jim Caldwell. Speaking of Schwartz, this is one of the most epic troll jobs of all-time. Getting carried off the field as the defensive coordinator in a regular season victory deserves all the LOLs ever. The only thing that would have made this any more memorable is if Schwartz refused to shake anyone’s hand after game.
If you’re wondering what’s wrong with the Lions, the answer is simple. They are cursed. They obviously built Ford Field on some type of ancient burial ground. That’s the only plausible explanation for losing to Kyle Orton in this manner.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Colts 27, Ravens 14
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Colts 20, Ravens 13
Andrew Luck at home vs. Joe Flacco on the road. Hmmmmm.
I don’t want to spend too much time here because everything happened like it was supposed to, except for the ridiculous steam that came in on Baltimore before the game, dropping Indianapolis to 2.5-point favorites. The Ravens on the road will forever be the Ravens on the road, and I will forever be scratching my head wondering how Flacco ever won a Super Bowl. These things will not change.
The highlight of this game was the Ravens committing a defensive holding penalty on a Colts’ field goal attempt, resulting in an automatic first down for Indianapolis. The play in itself wasn’t that exciting, but the CBS crew’s hot takes on whether or not the Colts should take the automatic first down or keep the three points for the successful field goal was riveting. This happened. In real life.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Steelers 27, Jaguars 23
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Steelers 17, Jaguars 9
Another game where I don’t need to spend much time.
Pittsburgh was predictably awful playing against lesser competition and they still managed to cover the spread. For the millionth straight week, sharp money came pouring in on Jacksonville before the game, and for the millionth straight week, that sharp money was dull.
The score line would indicate that this game was semi-close, and it was on the scoreboard, but that’s only because Todd Haley continues to dial up the worst plays that mankind has ever seen when the Steelers get into the red zone. Once Haley figures out that he has Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount in the backfield (probably never), the Steelers might get back to scoring points again.
Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos
Prediction: Broncos 31, Cardinals 13
Wager: Broncos -7
Final Score: Broncos 41, Cardinals 20
It took a lot of things to go Denver’s way for this outcome to end up the way it did.
The Broncos didn’t look great in the opening half. Peyton Manning led Denver down the field for a touchdown on their first possession, but things didn’t come so easy afterwards. Manning threw an interception directly into the hands of defensive lineman Calais Campbell, which led to an eventual Andre Ellington touchdown run. I’m not quite sure what Manning saw on that play. Maybe he was looking to pad his career tackles number, which is now up to eight following that superb piece of arm tackling.
Anyways, Arizona continued to hang around until a sequence of events ensured that this game would become a gong show.
Calais Campbell (or, as Erin Andrews calls him, Calalis Campbell) suffered a terrible knee injury on a dirty chop block by Julius Thomas. Bruce Arians was predictably furious after the game as the Cardinals’ defensive line has likely taken a huge blow for the next month.
John Fox continued being the most conservative coach on the planet. Does this old man not realize that his quarterback is Peyton Manning? Watching the Broncos run out the clock in the first half with decent field position made me want to stab myself in the eyes.
Drew Stanton left the game with a concussion for the Cardinals. Logan Thomas threw his first career touchdown pass with a horseshoe firmly entrenched in his ass, but aside from that, he was predictably awful. Arizona couldn’t move the ball whatsoever with Thomas in the game.
Montee Ball pulled his groin for the Broncos. This was a huge break for Denver because Ball is absolutely terrible. I’ve never seen anyone other than Trent Richardson turn a should-be 10-yard gain into a no-gain. Ronnie Hillman tallied 64 yards on 15 carries after Ball’s exit.
The Cardinals will have to deal with some major injury concerns moving forward, while the Broncos look solid, with the exception of kicker Brandon McManus, who appears to be a huge lemon. I’m not sure cutting Matt Prater was the optimal choice for Denver.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: 49ers 23, Chiefs 10
Wager: 49ers -5.5
Final Score: 49ers 22, Chiefs 17
The Chiefs had a good chance to win this game outright if anyone other than Andy Reid was manning their sidelines. Reid was up to his old tricks; mismanaging the clock, refusing to give the ball to Jamaal Charles in the fourth quarter, and looking like a confused buffoon on the sidelines. The Chiefs let the 49ers off the hook for attempting a long field goal late in the game, when they inexcusably had 12 men on the field, resulting in a San Fran first down. Jim Harbaugh went on to celebrate as if he had just achieved a life-long goal.
I’ll save the Alex Smith hot takes to ESPN, who will probably still be talking about this game three weeks from now. I’d prefer to focus on the highlight of this game though, when Chiefs’ outside linebacker Dee Ford did everything in his power to avoid tackling Frank Gore. I know that Gore runs hard, but c’mon Dee.
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Chargers 27, Jets 16
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Chargers 31, Jets 0
I’m not going to tell you more than you already know—the Chargers are good, the Jets suck. It’s as simple as that.
New York is approaching a Jacksonville level of ineptness. That’s not an exaggeration. Their defense made a huge play in the first quarter, picking off Philip Rivers in the end zone. All the momentum was back in New York’s favor until Chris Johnson fumbled on the very next play, giving the ball back to San Diego at the Jets’ 20-yard-line. I thought Johnson was being phased out of the Jets’ offense, but obviously that would have been too smart a move for Rex Ryan. Speaking of being phased out, Geno Smith finally grabbed some bench in favor of Michael Vick, who turned out to be even more useless (is that even possible?). I guess torturing dogs carries a lifelong penalty of bad karma.
There was a point in the second half where 39 individual players had outgained the Jets offense on the day. That’s all you need to know.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
Prediction: Patriots 27, Bengals 20
Wager: Patriots +1
Final Score: Patriots 43, Bengals 17
Hot takes everywhere this week included “the Patriots are done” and “Cincinnati may just be the best team in the NFL.” So much for that.
This was a complete destruction, and it was evident that it was headed this way when Tom Brady led the Pats on a 10 play, 80-yard touchdown drive to open the game. Brady was fired up and I knew then that the Bengals didn’t stand a chance. The final score line isn’t even really indicative of how lopsided this game was, because the officiating crew was obviously given the instruction to try to keep this game close.
Jerome Boger’s crew wins the incompetence award for this week. I wish I had kept track of all of the bogus calls on Sunday night, but off the top of my head, I can clearly remember an awful illegal contact penalty on Darrelle Revis to nullify an interception, an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Rob Gronkowski for a “headbutt”, and a personal foul penalty for a blindside hit on a play that was already blown dead. The officiating was an abomination, but even that couldn’t stop the Patriots on Sunday night.
I won’t overreact too much to this week’s game though. Cincinnati is notoriously poor on the road, and they can be exploited by teams that run the ball. The Bengals will be just fine until they get bounced in their first playoff game because of Andy Dalton’s ineffectiveness. New England also isn’t as good as they looked this week. The topic of discussion this week will be “Brady is back," but he missed several easy throws in this contest, one of which should have been a pick six.
Monday Night Football
There’s no doubt that the Seahawks will be the popular pick tonight. They’re the defending Super Bowl Champions coming off of a bye, battling a team that just got lit up in front of a national audience. I just don’t agree with this line though.
Firstly, teams coming off of bye weeks this week weren’t exactly the best prepared. The Rams, Browns, and Bengals all fell into major deficits early on despite having the extra week to prepare. Additionally, the Redskins are coming off of extra rest themselves so that will mitigate the perceived edge that the Seahawks have in that respect.
As we’ve also learned this week, some teams just aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home. You can’t bet against Seattle at CenturyLink Field, but you can fade them away from home, as evidenced already by their 30-21 loss in San Diego as a favorite.
I’m going head-to-head with the OddsShark computer projection tonight. They have the Seahawks rolling, but I’m very tempted by the Redskins getting more than a touchdown at home, especially since I don’t think that they’re one of the league’s worst teams. Redskins +7.5 (Pinnacle).
#SuperContest
The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of the sharpest NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. I went 3-2 with my selections last week and am 3-1 this week, improving to a perfectly mediocre 12-12 this season. If you’re interested, you can track my progress here.
Here’s a quick recap of what I played this week:
Titans -1.5 (L) – I don’t really regret this one. I got a bad number with the Titans closing as underdogs, but it’s hard to be upset about a play on a team that was winning 28-3. Oh well.
Rams +7 (W) – The Rams got steamed heavily prior to this week’s game, leaving me with a great number on St. Louis. At one point in the day, I had marked the Titans as a win and the Rams as a loss. I can’t believe it ended up the other way.
Broncos -7 (W) – It was only a matter of time before Denver obliterated a team and I figured this line would rise before game time, which it did. Obviously no regrets here, although it was dicey at times.
Patriots +1 (W) – I didn’t get the best line value here, but I would have taken the Patriots at -3 or less. This was a great bounce back spot for New England and they didn’t disappoint against an overrated Bengals squad.
Redskins +7 (pending) – Not the greatest of numbers here, but prime time home underdogs always catch my eye, especially when they’re getting a touchdown or more.
Week 6 Early Thoughts
It’s never too early to start taking a look at the next week of action. Here are my early thoughts on every game, using early consensus lines.
Colts @ Texans (+2.5) – Colts or nothing. Indy will be a public play and Andrew Luck is worse on the road, but Luck vs. Fitzpatrick is still a huge mismatch. Houston is also coming off of a tough loss against Dallas.
Broncos @ Jets (+7) – This number will almost certainly rise before game time. I used to blindly bet home dogs of seven or more points, but can’t imagine I can back the inept Jets next week.
Steelers @ Browns (-2) – I can’t help but think that this game should be a pick’em. Yeah, Pittsburgh struggled against Jacksonville, but I don’t put much stock into that. Cleveland could be flat after that epic comeback victory.
Jaguars @ Titans (-6) – This line could move depending on who starts for the Titans. Regardless, I don’t imagine I’ll have any money on this game come next Sunday.
Bears @ Falcons (-3) – The Falcons have some major issues but they are obviously much better at home. I’m still tempted to take the Bears here but Jay Cutler is the great equalizer.
Packers @ Dolphins (+3) – The Fish look like an appealing home dog. Everyone just saw Green Bay annihilate Minnesota on Thursday Night Football. Miami coming off of a bye has had two weeks to prepare for this Packers’ offense.
Lions @ Vikings (+2.5) – Both teams are in bet on spots, so I’ll probably pass here. Lions notoriously stink on the road but did beat an inferior Jets squad in New York two weeks ago.
Panthers @ Bengals (-6.5) – Blowout of the week coming up. Cincinnati struggles against teams that run the ball, but Carolina can’t run the ball. The Bengals just got embarrassed in primetime—time to take out their frustrations at home, where they’re infinitely better than on the road.
Patriots @ Bills (+3) – Both teams are in bad spots coming off of big wins. Bills as a home dog is tempting, but already lost to Chargers in a similar role this year. Probably a pass for me.
Ravens @ Bucs (+3) – I really don’t have any idea how the Ravens can be favored in a road game against anyone other than the Jags or Raiders. This is a terrible team away from home, who pulled out a fluky victory in Cleveland thanks to some Browns’ missed field goals. Bucs or nothing.
Chargers @ Raiders (+7) – I don’t think I’ll bet against the Chargers at all this season. Mike McCoy has won me over, and Oakland is just a terrible football team. The bye week may help them keep this respectable but no interest in grabbing those points.
Cowboys @ Seahawks (-8.5) – At first glance, looks like a solid line. Seattle gets more points for home field than anyone else in the league, so I don’t think this number is too big.
Redskins @ Cardinals (-3.5) – Major issues at quarterback for the Cardinals, but will have to wait to see the Redskins tonight to determine what to do here.
Giants @ Eagles (-2.5) – I grabbed Giants +3 at open and still like them at any underdog price. The Eagles are a major fraud who I will be looking to fade frequently for the remainder of the season.
49ers @ Rams (+3) – I also grabbed Rams +3.5 at open which in my opinion, was an absolute gift. I’ve backed San Francisco in back-to-back weeks and have seen nothing that would warrant backing them as a road favorite in primetime. Time to fade the 49ers.
