Although every NFL team heads into training camp with a sense of optimism after a busy offseason, only so many can be on an upward trajectory.
Meanwhile, a slew of clubs are bound to fall short of expectations. Let's take a swing at picking out where all 32 teams might land using preseason win totals available on theScore Bet.
Win total: 4.5
Arizona likely has more talent than most realize, and the offense could be set up for long-term success under Mike LaFleur. If they can eventually find a franchise quarterback, the Cardinals should become everyone's favorite upstart team. Still, it's going to be tough sledding until then. Entering camp with a competition between Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, and third-round rookie Carson Beck isn't ideal, especially with the NFL's toughest schedule on deck. Pick: Under (-165)
Win total: 7.5
The Falcons won eight games last year, and this is the NFC South we're talking about - anything could happen. However, at a time when the rest of the division is seemingly making the right moves to take a step forward, I feel pretty strongly that Atlanta is the weakest of the bunch. While that could flip when Kevin Stefanski gets his quarterback, eight wins might prove difficult for a team with either Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. under center. Pick: Under (-145)
Win total: 11.5
The Ravens have let me down before, but there's a reason they stand alone atop the AFC in preseason win totals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry leading the way, Baltimore should once again have one of the league's best offenses. Jesse Minter's arrival as head coach, along with a splashy move to boost the pass rush by signing Trey Hendrickson, could make the team's defense every bit as good. If that happens, we'll be talking about the Ravens alongside the Rams as the top Super Bowl contenders. Pick: Over (+120)
Win total: 10.5
I didn't love the decision to promote Joe Brady as Sean McDermott's successor - if it was time for a new voice, why not look outside the organization? But that doesn't mean I'm out on the Bills. Now that Brady is the one calling the shots, who's to say he won't open up the playbook to maximize Josh Allen? Adding DJ Moore to upgrade the receiving corps should also help. And new defensive coordinator Jim Leonard's pressure-heavy system could be the key to overcoming any lingering personnel issues on defense. Pick: Over (-125)
Win total: 7.5
The Panthers still have a long way to go before they're threatening the NFC's true contenders, but this organization is slowly trending in the right direction. The offensive line received some important reinforcements this offseason, while rookie Chris Brazzell III brings a much-needed field-stretcher on the outside. On defense, Ejiro Evero's unit could take a step forward after adding Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips to the front seven. At the very least, repeating last year's eight-win output seems reasonable. Pick: Over (+115)
Win total: 9.5
I'm smashing the over here. Even if the Bears fail to live up to the hype following a strong first season under Ben Johnson, this number feels extremely gettable for them. With more time in the system, I think Caleb Williams and the rest of this offense are in for another significant jump. Though it would've been nice to see Chicago make a few moves to address the pass rush, I trust Dennis Allen to make it work on defense. Pick: Over (+110)
Win total: 9.5
I'm officially back in on the Bengals. Some horrifically bad defense made it impossible to take this team seriously over the last few seasons, but those issues could be a thing of the past. Highlighted by the additions of Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe up front, a series of offseason moves should push Cincinnati's defense into league-average territory. That's all you need when you have Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins lighting up the scoreboard on offense. Pick: Over (-170)
Win total: 5.5
The excitement surrounding Cleveland's rebuild is warranted. Another strong offseason, highlighted by an A-plus draft haul, has helped set the foundation for a bright future. Still, it might be another year - and another draft to chase a potential franchise quarterback - before the offense finds consistent success. It also probably goes without saying, but the defense, the Browns' biggest strength, is in for a step back after trading Myles Garrett to the Rams. Pick: Under (-110)
Win total: 8.5
This is an easy over for me, and the reasoning is similar to the one I made for the Bengals. After Dallas spent the offseason overhauling the defense, this previously dreadful unit has a chance to start trending toward the middle of the pack. And with one of the few offenses that can match Cincinnati's firepower, I think any such progression could be enough to make this number look extremely low in hindsight. The Cowboys should challenge the Eagles for the NFC East title. Pick: Over (-150)
Win total: 9.5
When searching for teams that might fall short of expectations, I often end up coming back to the Broncos. Sustaining elite defense is tough, and Bo Nix has been far too inconsistent for my liking. Sean Payton is also curiously giving up offensive play-calling duties to first-time coordinator Davis Webb. That all said, I just can't bring myself to forecast a significant drop-off for a defense consisting of this much talent. And with Jaylen Waddle joining Nix's supporting cast - which already features one of the NFL's premier offensive lines - it's tough to imagine Denver not easily hitting double digits. Pick: Over (-115)
Win total: 10.5
Detroit seems poised for a major rebound after a frustrating 2025 campaign. A secondary already plagued with injury questions did take another hit this month when the club released 2024 first-rounder Terrion Arnold amid felony kidnapping and robbery charges, but the floor is just so high for the Lions' impressive core. They're also set to benefit from the NFL's easiest strength of schedule after last year's last-place finish in the NFC North, an advantage that should help them cruise back into the playoffs. Pick: Over (-125)
Win total: 10.5
I'm a little torn here because I love what the Packers are building. Jordan Love has quietly become one of the best quarterbacks in football, and the bizarre questions about Matt LaFleur's job status seemed to have conveniently overlooked his place among the NFL's premier play-callers. Green Bay's defense also has a chance to be special when operating at full strength. Crucially, though, it might be a while before the unit gets there, as Micah Parsons' ACL rehab could extend into late October. In a wildly difficult NFC North, I'm wondering if the Packers drop a few too many games early before hitting their stride late. Pick: Under (-150)
Win total: 9.5
I've got the Texans on par with the Ravens as the top teams in the AFC. It's deep group of contenders, but Houston's defense might be the only unit in football that can rival what we saw on Seattle's run to the Super Bowl last season. And while many are likely down on C.J. Stroud after an embarrassing playoff run, I think improvements made to the offensive line will help the former No. 2 pick recapture the form from his rookie season. Zero hesitation on the over here. Pick: Over (-130)
Win total: 8.5
The Colts raced out to an 8-2 start last season before Daniel Jones went down with a torn Achilles tendon. Indy could perhaps get back on that pace with the veteran quarterback returning to action this fall, but it's tough to have any lofty expectations for a small-sample, late-breakout player now coming off a major injury. Add in the challenge of an increasingly competitive division, and the Colts could very well toil in mediocrity this year. Pick: Under (-170)
Win total: 9.5
I can understand expecting the Jaguars to regress after last year's surprising 13-win showing, but you'd have to believe this team was a complete flash in the pan to hit the under here and forecast a four-win slide. I'm not buying that. Liam Coen's arrival finally helped Trevor Lawrence put it all together, and the QB has the weapons to build on that progress in 2026. Maybe Jacksonville's defense will struggle to uphold the same standard it set for most of last season, but it would take a dramatic drop-off to weigh down what this offense is cooking. The Jaguars are for real. Pick: Over (+110)
Win total: 10.5
The Chiefs are a tough one to predict. On one hand, it's difficult to imagine a team that reached five Super Bowls in the previous six years not finding a way to bounce back after a 6-11 outlier. The run-game possibilities created by signing Kenneth Walker have the potential to completely change the makeup of Kansas City's offense, and the pair of first-round talents added on defense should make an immediate impact. But on the other hand, what version of Patrick Mahomes will this squad get after he tore his ACL in December? Asking him to compensate for another underwhelming group of pass-catchers seems borderline reckless. I'll put the Chiefs at 10 wins. Pick: Under (-140)
Win total: 5.5
There was nothing the Raiders could do in such a short period to find a quick fix for last year's circus, but an incredibly productive offseason should have them optimistic about the future. However, even if Las Vegas is more competitive in Year 1 under Klint Kubiak, it'll still likely take some time for the progress to translate into results. Picking out wins on the Raiders' gauntlet of a schedule this year isn't an easy task. Pick: Under (+120)
Win total: 9.5
Is it just me, or is the football world sleeping on the Chargers? I've been burned by this team before, but it's tough for me to square the idea that an 11-win playoff club is in for a multi-win slide after going from Greg Roman to Mike McDaniel at offensive coordinator. Perhaps Los Angeles' defense falls off a cliff without Minter - I honestly have no idea what to expect from that unit under former Western Michigan DC Chris O'Leary. But I'm unbelievably bullish on the idea of a creative McDaniel offense finally unlocking Justin Herbert's potential. Pick: Over (-135)
Win total: 11.5
By addressing their one glaring weakness at corner with both Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, the Rams became the clear Super Bowl favorite early in the offseason. The blockbuster deal for Garrett in June then elevated them to juggernaut status. Matthew Stafford's back flaring up is the one variable that could derail Los Angeles' championship hopes. Working under the assumption that the 38-year-old will stay on the field, we should be able to count the Rams' losses on one hand. Pick: Over (-120)
Win total: 4.5
The Dolphins are my front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick. The new regime may well build a contender in time, but this seems like a situation that'll likely get a whole lot worse before it gets better. Miami asking Malik Willis to elevate one of the NFL's worst rosters in his first opportunity as a full-time starter figures to be a problem for all. Pick: Under (-155)
Win total: 8.5
Minnesota won nine games despite some truly horrific quarterback play last year. I imagine this line is heavily influenced by public perception about Kyler Murray, but you can't tell me he's not a significant upgrade over J.J. McCarthy. Assuming Murray can stay healthy after injury issues in Arizona, his presence should help the Vikings' talented offense bounce back. Combine that boost with everything you get from a Brian Flores defense, and the result is Minnesota taking people by surprise. Pick: Over (-105)
Win total: 9.5
Leaning into narratives about Super Bowl hangovers, I was tempted to go with the under. But come on, Drake Maye was one of the best quarterbacks on the planet in his first full season as a starter. With A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs providing a major upgrade to his receiver room, Maye might take his game to another level. The Patriots are here to stay. Pick: Over (-135)
Win total: 7.5
I'm a big fan of what the Saints are building under Kellen Moore. Tyler Shough looked like a promising young quarterback during the second half of his rookie season, and he has the offensive line and cast of playmakers to take a significant step forward in Year 2. New Orleans also quietly finished the 2025 campaign tied with the Patriots for 10th in defensive EPA/play, according to TruMedia. Faced with the NFL's second-hardest schedule, though, this ascending team might still be another year away from playoff contention. Pick: Under (+105)
Win total: 7.5
After years of dysfunction, John Harbaugh's arrival in New York could quickly prove that he was the driving force behind the Ravens' 12 playoff appearances in 18 seasons. Then again, if he won only eight games before being shown the door in Baltimore, can we really get carried away with expectations for the Giants? Harbaugh having to settle for Matt Nagy and Greg Roman as his top offensive assistants after missing out on Todd Monken gives me some pause about the short-term outlook of Jaxson Dart's development. Pick: Under (-7.5)
Win total: 5.5
The Jets did a nice job upgrading their talent level across the board this offseason. With an intriguing collection of veterans and rookies brought in to overhaul the defense, and the Geno Smith reunion providing some semblance of short-term stability at quarterback, you could argue that this is one of the most improved rosters in football. But New York had a long way to go after last year's 3-14 record, and the club won't get any favors from the NFL's fifth-hardest schedule. Meaningful progress being delayed another year wouldn't be the worst outcome if it helps the Jets land a franchise quarterback at the top of the 2027 draft. Pick: Under (-110)
Win total: 10.5
I have no idea what to think about the Eagles' offense. Change was needed after last year's issues, but does a shift to a Kyle Shanahan-style system under first-time OC Sean Mannion really fit with Jalen Hurts? And while more under-center snaps should be a plus for the run game, how much will the loss of legendary offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland hurt the group up front? I'm tempted to hit the over anyway, because I think Philly will have a top-five defense. But any growing pains on the other side of the ball could make things dicey. Pick: Under (-130)
Win total: 7.5
Pittsburgh has long resisted a rebuild, and the Mike McCarthy hire signals a clear belief within that organization that this team is still in a position to compete. I'd be more inclined to entertain the idea if it didn't hinge upon a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers rediscovering a level of play we haven't seen since 2021. This is the season the Steelers finally bottom out. It'll be a bitter pill to swallow after a 22-year run without a losing record, but the temporary setback might be what they need to get out of purgatory. Pick: Under (+125)
Win total: 10.5
The 49ers suffered a rash of injuries last season and still rattled off 12 wins. Four games against the Rams and Seahawks will make it difficult to improve on that total, but it's tough to imagine a healthy San Francisco falling off enough for the under to hit here. The offense will be among the best in the business as long as Shanahan is running the show. The defense should also be in for a rebound after adding Osa Odighizuwa and Dre Greenlaw alongside the cast of impact players returning from injury. Pick: Over (+120)
Win total: 10.5
Mike Macdonald's defense alone might be good enough to get the reigning champs to 10 wins regularly. Although it's fair to have some concern about what the offense will look like following Kubiak's departure, I'm confident that it won't spontaneously combust in a way that tanks Seattle's playoff chances. Sam Darnold's late breakout was no mirage, and his connection with reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba should keep this passing game rolling. Pick: Over (-130)
Win total: 8.5
The Bucs entering the year with the highest NFC South win total at just 8.5 perfectly encapsulates the state of the division. Nobody should be surprised if that eternally mediocre group produces another eight-win champion, but I'm expecting more from Tampa Bay this season. Even with Mike Evans' departure, a healthy offensive line should go a long way toward getting Baker Mayfield and the rest of the offense back on track. Rookies Reuben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter should also be excellent fits to bolster the front seven of Todd Bowles' defense. Pick: Over (+115)
Win total: 6.5
Tennessee is another team that probably needs to stay patient. Robert Saleh and his staff should provide a significant upgrade in the coaching department, and the roster has undergone a Patriots-like transformation in just one offseason. I'm particularly excited about Carnell Tate stepping in as Cam Ward's No. 1 receiver and a new-look defensive line giving Saleh an excellent foundation up front. But unless Ward mirrors Maye's rare trajectory and earns MVP consideration as a sophomore, the Titans may have to settle for baby steps before targeting a 2027 playoff push. Pick: Under (-125)
Win total: 7.5
A healthy Jayden Daniels will get the Commanders back in this ballpark after a disappointing 5-12 record in 2025. An offseason spent remodeling the defense opens the door for more, but it remains to be seen whether the collection of names acquired will be enough to make a playoff push. I'm still looking at Washington as a tier or two below the top dogs in the NFC East. Pick: Under (+110)
US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
CA: Please play responsibly. AB (18+) & ON (19+) only. If gambling is affecting your mental health or well-being, 211 Alberta is here to help. Call or text 211 or visit ab.211.ca (AB). Call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca (ON).
