NFL Monday wild-card bets: Will Texans rain on Rodgers' parade?
The wild-card round concludes Monday night with a meeting between the Steelers and Texans.
Pittsburgh punched its playoff ticket on a missed field goal from Ravens kicker Tyler Loop in the regular-season finale, while Houston and its league-best defense earned the AFC's top wild-card spot by winning its final nine games.
Let's get to our pick against the spread, favorite props, touchdown scorers, and parlay for the final game of Wild Card Weekend.
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Jump to: Picks summary
🏈 Pick: Texans -3 (+100)
Deeg - Bet $120 to win $120
I don't see the Steelers' offense moving the ball efficiently in this game. The Texans' defense ranks first in yards allowed per contest (277.2) and second in success rate (39.5%). They blitz at the fifth-lowest rate yet recorded the seventh-most sacks in the league. Their secondary can slow down DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh's only threat in the passing game, as Houston's EPA/dropback (-.26) was by far the best in the league.
The Texans' offense, meanwhile, can make enough explosive plays through the air against the Steelers' mediocre back seven to cover this number. I'm always wary of Mike Tomlin as a home underdog, but his group has lost its last four playoff games by a combined 58 points, with the lowest margin of defeat being 11. Houston is the better team, and this is a low spread for the difference in talent across the board.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+210)
Oshtry - Bet $25 to win $52.50
Gainwell is the Steelers' second-leading rusher and leading pass-catcher. It's rare to see a running back pace a team in receptions, so Gainwell's dual ability as a runner and receiver makes him a unique weapon. Aaron Rodgers likes to target him in short-yardage situations, meaning that the fifth-year back, who has eight total touchdowns this season, is always a threat to reach the end zone.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+375)
Deeg - Bet $25 to win $93.75
Higgins has emerged as a legitimate weapon for the Texans' passing attack. The rookie has played over 62% of the team's snaps since Week 8 and has scored four touchdowns in his last nine games, including one in each of his two most recent contests. Pittsburgh's defense ranked in the bottom five in targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to wideouts this season.
🏈 Bet: Over 39.5 receiving yards (+135)
Patterson - $30 to win $40.50
The Texans are elite at stopping the run, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (93.7), but they can give up receiving yardage to opposing backs (31.4 yards per contest). Gainwell, who hauled in 73 receptions on the year, is an above-average pass-catcher, having surpassed 40 receiving yards in three of the final four regular-season games.
🏈 Bet: Over 0.5 sacks (+125)
Patterson - $20 to win $25
Watt remains a premier pass-rusher despite recording only seven sacks this season. Houston's offensive line is its weakest element, owning just a 56% pass-blocking win rate (30th in the league), according to ESPN Analytics. Pittsburgh needs Watt to show up to have a chance in this game.
🏈 Bet: Longest reception over 24.5 yards (-120)
Patterson - $30 to win $25
Collins is one of the best downfield threats in the NFL, and C.J. Stroud throws a fantastic deep ball, which is why this duo has found so much success. Collins' longest reception surpassed this number eight times this season and in 19 of his last 29 outings. Plus, the Steelers' secondary allowed the fifth-most yards to opposing wide receivers this season (163.7).
🏈 Bet: Texans ML + Stroud over 199.5 passing yards (+114)
Oshtry - Bet $50 to win $56.92
For all the reasons Deeg laid out previously, I'm riding with the Texans. The Steelers' passing defense was a disaster all season, allowing the league's fourth-most passing yards per game and the most among playoff teams. Stroud should let it rip against Pittsburgh. He didn't have the greatest campaign but still threw for over 200 yards in 10 of the 13 games he started and finished.
Texans-Steelers summary
| Patterson | Oshtry | Deeg |
|---|---|---|
| Gainwell o39.5 rec. yards | Gainwell TD | Texans (-3) |
| Watt o0.5 sacks | Texans parlay | Higgins TD |
| Collins o24.5 long rec. |
Odds and lines derived from theScore Bet sportsbook and are subject to change. Real money was not used to make these wagers on theScore Bet.
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