AFC North title bets: Lamar, Rodgers square off in play-in game
We have a doozy on deck Sunday night as the Ravens visit the Steelers with the AFC North title on the line. The winner advances to the playoffs and hosts a game in the wild-card round, while the loser's season will be over. It's a playoff game before the playoffs start.
Here is our pick against the spread, favorite touchdown scorers, and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.
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π Pick: Steelers (+3.5)
When these teams met in Week 14, the Ravens closed as six-point favorites at home and lost 27-22. The Steelers will be without DK Metcalf, who exploded for 148 yards in their first meeting, but they're getting T.J. Watt back to bolster their defense.
The spread from two weeks ago was clearly incorrect - these two teams are much closer than the betting market believed. However, this 3.5-point spread suggests the Ravens would be roughly 6.5-point favorites (potentially more) this week if this game were in Baltimore. When presented that way, the Steelers become the clear side to back.
Lamar Jackson will return for the Ravens after missing last week with a back injury. There's a good chance he's far from 100% and is pushing himself to play in a must-win game. Jackson hasn't been himself for most of the season and is on pace to record his lowest rushing total by a substantial margin (he's 355 yards short of his career low).
Missing Metcalf is tough for the Steelers, who only scored six points on the road in Cleveland last week. But the Browns' defense is a different beast at home, and the Ravens' defense has been underwhelming all season.
Backing the Steelers as a home underdog has historically been a wise bet. Since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007, the Steelers are 22-9-3 (71% cover rate) when getting points in Pittsburgh.
I expect this game to be a tight defensive AFC North battle decided by one of the final few possessions. If that's the case, getting the Steelers and 3.5 points is too good to pass up.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg is our "Anytime TD Guy," providing touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: To score 2+ TDs (+375)
We'll go with a long shot on Baltimore's side and roll with Henry to score twice. Even with Lamar returning, Henry should see a ton of action. He's been dominant down the stretch, recording six touchdowns in his last two games. The bruising tailback has a good matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks 25th in EPA/rush.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+325)
Freiermuth played a season-high 46 offensive snaps last week and led all Steelers players in receiving yards with 63. He hauled in all five of his targets and should get extended playing time again with Darnell Washington sidelined. This is solid value for a player who will likely be one of Aaron Rodgers' top receiving options Sunday.
π Bet: Over 24.5 rushing yards
While he may be well under his usual rushing numbers for the campaign, you can get good value on Jackson's rushing yards here because it's his first game back from injury. In a do-or-die contest, Lamar will use his legs, and he's been a full participant in practice all week. He's eclipsed this number in four of his last six contests, and he went well over this total against Pittsburgh earlier in the season.
π Bet: Over 4.5 receptions
We expect a heavy dose of Gainwell in the passing game. He's eclipsed this number in five of his last seven contests and will face a Ravens defense that's allowed the third-most receptions and fourth-most targets to running backs this season.
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