Imagine telling someone in August that the Ravens and Lions - who made it to the divisional round of the playoffs last season - would enter the final two weeks of this regular season as massive long shots to even appear in the postseason. Then again, no one expected the Chiefs to miss the playoffs. That's the NFL, where the only thing to expect is the unexpected.
So, what do the odds look like for teams that haven't clinched a playoff spot but are still jockeying for position? And what's the long shots' path to sneak into the dance? Let's break it down.
Playoff odds
| Team | Odds to make playoffs | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Packers | -4000 | 97.6% |
| Steelers | -1600 | 94.1% |
| Buccaneers | -145 | 59.2% |
| Panthers | +125 | 44.4% |
| Ravens | +800 | 11.1% |
| Lions | +1300 | 7.1% |
| Colts | +3500 | 2.8% |
Lions' path to the playoffs
Detroit's heartbreaking and controversial loss to the Steelers on Sunday dimmed its playoff hopes. In a competitive NFC wild-card race, the Lions' path is clear: They have to win their final two games, and the Packers must lose their final two games.
That's why oddsmakers give the Lions a 7% chance to make the playoffs, and that might be generous. Detroit's next two games are against divisional opponents - the lowly Vikings on Christmas Day (the Lions are 6-point favorites) and a season finale against the first-place Bears. It's certainly possible for the Lions to finish the season 2-0; it's just less likely that the Packers go 0-2. They play the injury-ravaged Ravens on Saturday (as 2.5-point favorites) and close the season against the Vikings.
Ravens' path to the playoffs
The Ravens are out of the AFC wild-card race. Their only chance to make the playoffs is to overtake the Steelers for the AFC North crown. But that won't be easy. Baltimore's path to the playoffs requires defeating the Packers on the road as an underdog Saturday and then needing the Steelers to lose to the Browns as 4.5-point favorites. If the Steelers win or the Ravens lose, Baltimore is eliminated. If somehow the Steelers lose and the Ravens win, then Ravens versus Steelers in Week 18 would be for the AFC North title and a trip to the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson's status complicates things even more for the Ravens. He left Sunday night's loss to the Patriots with a back injury, and his Week 17 status is undetermined. Oddsmakers assign Baltimore an 11% chance of earning a playoff appearance.
Panthers and Bucs in tight NFC South race
After the Panthers defeated the Buccaneers on Sunday night, Carolina moved into first place in the division at 8-7, while Tampa Bay fell to 7-8. So, why do the Bucs (-145) still have better odds to win the NFC South and make the playoffs than the Panthers (+125)?
If the Panthers win their final two games, they're in. However, they play the Seahawks and then have a rematch against the Bucs in the season finale. If the Panthers win and the Bucs lose to the Dolphins, then the Panthers clinch the division. However, that's unlikely: The Bucs are 5.5-point favorites over Miami and Carolina is a 7-point underdog to the 12-3 Seahawks.
If the Panthers and Bucs both win this Sunday, the division will come down to their Week 18 showdown. The Bucs own the tiebreakers over the Panthers. If they finish with the same record, Tampa Bay is in. Unless something wild happens, that Week 18 matchup, where the Bucs will be favored at home, will decide who wins the NFC South.
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