Thanksgiving Day picks: Lions, Cowboys, Ravens set to enjoy home cooking

This year's Thanksgiving Day slate is more loaded than your first plate will be for turkey dinner. A pair of divisional games and an intriguing matchup between two of the league's most popular teams will have you stapled to your couch for hours instead of mingling with extended family.

Let's dive into our picks against the spread for the three-game slate. We also have our favorite player props and touchdown scorer bets to help make your holiday a profitable one.

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🏈 Bet: Lions (-2.5)

This is a rematch from Week 1, when the Packers stifled the Lions in a 27-13 victory. However, a lot has changed since then, and Detroit now looks more like the Lions teams of recent years than whatever it fielded at Lambeau in early September.

Green Bay, meanwhile, hasn't looked like a team ready to make a deep playoff run. The Packers lost to the Panthers at home, scored seven points in another home loss to the Eagles, squeaked by the Giants, and beat the Vikings in a game where J.J. McCarthy's passer rating would've been higher had he spiked the ball every play.

Jordan Love is playing with an injured non-throwing shoulder and hasn't hit 200 passing yards in three straight outings. Green Bay relies heavily on its defense to stay in games, which usually works but won't against the Lions at Ford Field.

The Packers have played two indoor games this season, giving up 40 to the Cowboys and 23 to the Cardinals, led by Jacoby Brissett. It's a small sample size, but their defense may not be as effective indoors on turf. In fact, Detroit has a better defense than Green Bay based on expected points added per play (EPA/play), according to SumerSports.

I'll happily lay less than a field goal for a home team with a superior offense (Detroit's 29.6 points per game are the league's second most), especially indoors, and a better defense statistically.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Bet: Cowboys (+3.5)

Is Dallas ... good?

This season has been a roller coaster for the Cowboys, who find themselves 5-5-1 entering Thursday with an outside shot to make the playoffs. Their defense, previously viewed as one of the worst in the NFL, has significantly improved, thanks to the addition of Quinnen Williams and the return of DeMarvion Overshown. Dak Prescott is playing exceptional football, and George Pickens continues to turn in one monster game after another.

The Chiefs will be a great test for the Cowboys as most people settle in for their Thanksgiving dinner. However, Kansas City isn't nearly as daunting an opponent as it once was, especially on the road. Patrick Mahomes and Co. are 1-3 straight up and 1-3 against the spread (ATS) away from Arrowhead this season, which is the main reason they're fighting for a playoff spot at 6-5.

Dallas has the firepower to cover this spread and a defense that's playing well enough to win the game outright. The Cowboys are 3-1-1 at "Jerry World," and getting 3.5 points is too much value to pass up.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Bet: Ravens (-6.5)

Joe Burrow is back, but it may be too little, too late for the Bengals. They're 3-8, and Burrow, while saying he's healthy, seems to be rushing back to try and save a lost season.

Cincinnati will be without Tee Higgins but still has Ja'Marr Chase to feed. The team should be fine on offense, even if Burrow is somewhat limited, but this is a bet against its horrendous defense.

The Bengals' defense has an EPA/play of 0.19, meaning that for every offensive down, the opposing team is expected to score 0.19 points compared to the league average. You aren't going to win - or cover - many games with a defense that allows 32.7 points per contest.

Derrick Henry should have his way with Cincinnati's run defense, which concedes 156 rushing yards per game. Controlling the game on the ground not only sets up Lamar Jackson and the passing attack but also keeps Burrow off the field.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

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