Opening a sportsbook app can be overwhelming for many bettors. The offerings feel endless, especially when you wade into the waters of player props.
But if you don't have an opinion on who will win the Big Game, betting on player props can keep you engaged while you devour chicken wings and nachos. Below, we've identified eight player props we think have a better chance of hitting than their odds suggest.
Jalen Hurts - Over 199.5 passing yards (-140)
While much has been made of Jalen Hurts' role in the Eagles' run-heavy offense, Philadelphia came out with a clear plan against the Commanders. Sure, Saquon Barkley broke free for a 60-yard touchdown run on his first carry, but the Eagles passed the ball on nine of their first 14 plays. Even with a lead, Philly stayed aggressive, running more pass plays than run plays in the first half.
That's different from the approach the Eagles displayed much of the season. It's important to earn and maintain a lead in the Super Bowl, and the fastest way to get ahead is through the passing game. Expect the Eagles to follow a similar script to the NFC championship - staying aggressive with their passing while also establishing the run.
The Chiefs' defensive strength is stopping the run; their pass defense falls behind. Hurts totaled 550 passing yards, eight total touchdowns, and zero interceptions in the two most important games of his career thus far: Super Bowl LVII and last week's NFC title game. You can count on Hurts to make plays in the biggest moments, and the Eagles will need that to get their revenge.
Jalen Hurts - Anytime TD scorer (-115)
Are we missing something here? Maybe, but at these odds, backing Hurts to find the end zone is a no-brainer. The Eagles call Hurts' number near the goal line all the time, and their Tush Push is the most successful one in the league.
Hurts has scored 18 rushing touchdowns this season and only failed to cross the goal line in six of 18 games. The -110 odds imply a probability of 52.4%, but he's scored in 66.7% of them. Take that value and run.
Patrick Mahomes - Over 35.5 passing attempts (-130)
Patrick Mahomes' last two Super Bowl wins followed similar scripts: The Chiefs trailed and relied on Mahomes' greatness to will them back to a win. That usually requires Mahomes to throw the ball frequently to get back in the game. He averages 40.7 pass attempts per game across his previous four Super Bowl appearances.
Kansas City's offense is pass-heavy - understandably so with Mahomes behind center. He recorded fewer than 30 passing attempts in the Chiefs' two playoff wins, but he threw at least 36 passes in the last six regular-season games and 11 of the final 14 regular-season games.
A.J. Brown - Longest reception over 24.5 yards (-110)
A.J. Brown is Hurts' top target. He had a down season and still led the Eagles in targets and receiving yards. Philadelphia relies on its running game to move the chains, but its passing game needs to come alive for the Eagles to compete with Mahomes. If Hurts is cooking, it's likely because he's consistently throwing to Brown.
Brown is unstoppable on slants and often breaks free for massive gains. Wagering on Brown's longest reception prop is worth a bet if you - like me - believe Brown will be targeted often.
Brown's over 5.5 receptions could also be worth a look. If he records at least five catches, he'll surely have one for at least 25 yards. Brown's longest reception exceeded 25 yards in nine of the 11 games he had at least five catches.
Dallas Goedert - Under 4.5 receptions (+107)
When everyone zigs, it can be good to zag. Dallas Goedert has been a popular Hurts target throughout their playoff run, so bettors are eager to place wagers on Goedert's over props.
While Goedert is exceptional at gaining extra yards after the catch, he doesn't rack up receptions at a high rate. This is a good fade spot as the market overreacts to Goedert's impressive postseason run. He's recorded less than five catches in eight of his 12 games this year, and he only had four catches in two of the three playoff games.
Xavier Worthy - Over 6.5 rushing yards (-115)
Kansas City isn't afraid to involve dynamic receiver Xavier Worthy in the running game. He's handled 11 carries - some of which are passes from Mahomes that count as laterals - in the last five games and surpassed 6.5 rushing yards in four of those. The Chiefs often give Worthy plenty of action around the line of scrimmage with screens or jet sweeps, and you have to imagine Andy Reid will find creative ways to get the speedster involved.
Xavier Worthy - Anytime TD scorer (+150)
Worthy found the end zone in three of his last four games as his role in the Chiefs' offense grows. He's clearly their best wide receiver, but the betting market isn't treating him as such.
Noah Gray - Under 1.5 receptions (-145)
Noah Gray hasn't been involved in the Chiefs' offense lately. He's caught one pass at most in four of his past five games, including a zero-catch effort against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game when he ran only seven routes.
Travis Kelce is hogging tight end snaps, keeping Gray on the sideline. There's no reason to expect the Chiefs will change that game plan, especially with Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster making bigger contributions.
