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Earlier in Super Bowl week, we looked at the betting market for the game itself. If you have a side to bet, you can tailor your prop betting portfolio to fit that result, but ideally, there'll be a path to prop victory even if the side or total doesn't come through.
It's said that "he who laughs last laughs longest." But whoever said that didn't bet on Super Bowl props, where there's an entire section of the betting menu reserved for things happening first - allowing for some first-quarter chuckles if things go our way.
49ers stay on script
49ers first - Punt or Points: Points (-105)
49ers first drive - Offensive score: Yes (-105)
49ers first drive - 20-plus-yard play: Yes (+145)
These are all kind of the same bet, but if you have access to the top one, that's the play because if the 49ers turn the ball over or there's a missed field goal on the first drive, you get a second chance to cash a bet on San Francisco to score before they punt. That edge is enough to be a better bet than betting the 49ers to score on their first drive at the same odds.
In 19 opening drives this season, the 49ers failed to get into field-goal range just four times, and they've scored an outrageous 11 first-drive touchdowns. Kyle Shanahan's early play script usually works.
If you have a greater appetite for risk, you can back the 49ers to spring one of their excellent skill-position players for a sizable gain on the way to scoring by betting San Francisco to have a 20-plus-yard play on the first drive at +145.
Rare QB pressure creates value
First Chiefs sack: Chris Jones (+400, 0.5 units)
First 49ers sack: Javon Hargrave (+450, 0.5 units)
For most of the lead-up to Super Bowl LVIII, Chris Jones, the two-time first-team All-Pro defensive lineman, wasn't even lined as the most likely Chiefs defender to get a sack, as George Karlaftis has shorter odds to get to Brock Purdy. Jones and Karlaftis tied for the team lead in the regular season, so there's some value in betting on Jones. If we expect the 49ers to manage the game via an effective rushing attack, then the Chiefs may only get a single sack. So instead of betting on Jones to record a sack at +140, we'll hope "any" sack ends up being the first.
On the 49ers side, Nick Bosa is naturally the most likely player to get a sack in passing situations, but left guard Joe Thuney's likely out again for the Chiefs. So, we'll look at the interior of San Francisco's defensive line to take advantage of backup Nick Allegretti. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave was the second-most frequent quarterback tormentor for the Niners, with a sack in 40% of the games he played in full. With Patrick Mahomes notoriously challenging to bring down, it might take a pocket collapsing - with Allegretti getting pushed deeper up the middle than Mahomes is expecting - to get a sack for the 49ers.
A jumpy Chiefs right tackle
First accepted penalty: Chiefs (-110 or better)
All things are almost equal when it comes to who'll commit an accepted penalty first between two good teams like the Chiefs and 49ers, which is why this is lined like a pick'em.
There's one glaring difference, though: Chiefs offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor. Taylor started the NFL season by constantly jumping the snap and not getting called for it until the fourth quarter of opening night. Well, someone noticed, and Taylor went on to lead the league in penalties.
The nature of offensive line penalties - false starts, holding, etc. - is that they're more likely to be accepted (a key element in qualifying a bet) in nullifying even a moderately successful offensive play. Only three of Taylor's 23 penalties this season have been declined. Taylor's a fly in the Chiefs' offensive ointment and might provide some edge on what's otherwise considered a coin-flip betting market.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
