Last week, we knew what to expect from Thursday's starting quarterbacks, Bailey Zappe and Mitch Trubisky: not much. This Thursday, we've got less certainty at the pivot, but that might be a good thing for creating a valuable bet.
With Justin Herbert out for the season, Easton Stick gets his first career start for the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Raiders are rumored to be turning back to one of two veteran QBs who didn't work the first time.
Chargers @ Raiders (-3, 34.5)
In lookahead lines before Herbert's injury, the expectation was that the Chargers would be more than a field-goal favorite in Las Vegas this week - a line similar to where the Raiders closed last week before getting shut out at home in a 3-0 push against the spread. The Vikings couldn't score on Vegas, but was that about the Raiders' impenetrable defense or a lackluster Minnesota offense that's finally benched Josh Dobbs?
Stick is an unknown, but he's not a rookie. Drafted by the Chargers in 2020, Stick's done enough to be considered a worthy backup, staying in the organization for four seasons. While the Chargers changed offensive coordinators in the offseason, he's worked with this personnel, consistently starting preseason games for years. Jumping into action while trailing midgame against the Broncos was a tough ask, and Stick had a hard time adjusting to the pass rush. With some time to prepare a game plan for Stick's skill set and by using Austin Ekeler as an outlet for easy passing yardage, the Chargers' offense can get to 20 points against the Raiders even with Keenan Allen being ruled out.
While Las Vegas's defense was better than expected against Minnesota, only five teams have allowed fewer yards per play than the Chargers over their last three games - against the Broncos, Ravens, and a shutout versus the Patriots.
When the Raiders got their midseason boost from Antonio Pierce replacing Josh McDaniels - Josh Jacobs and Maxx Crosby were leading the way in home wins over the reeling New York teams, and the quarterback play was fresh. Now, the Raiders' stars are frequenting the injury report, and the team has soured on Aidan O'Connell.
Another Thursday night game with a low total sets up differently than last week, where turnovers and high-leverage plays lurked around every corner. With Stick at the helm, the Chargers stay within themselves on offense while constricting whoever starts under center for the Raiders for another uninspiring win.
Pick: Chargers (+3)
Easton Stick: Over 19.5 passing completions
The Chargers weren't afraid to let Stick throw against the Broncos. He attempted 22 passes in the second half, including a deep connection to Quentin Johnston. They should be willing to have him throw frequently on Thursday night and will likely put together a plan to get Stick comfortable with simpler reads and throws. With short to immediate talents in Ekeler and the Chargers' cadre of tight ends, Stick may surprise statistically.
Austin Ekeler: Anytime touchdown (+150)
Remember when Ekeler was a touchdown machine? We weren't getting a plus price for him to score then, but we are now.
Ekeler doesn't have the gaudy touchdown totals he's had in the past, but scoring in half of his games this season isn't terrible. With Stick less likely to try something that Herbert would near the goal line, Ekeler is still the most likely player to score, but he's not being priced like it.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
