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NFL Week 13 player props: Tempering expectations

Simon Bruty / Sports Illustrated / Getty

Parlaying our player props is about as ill-advised as the quarterback scrambling wildly with the ball dangling from his right hand. It's almost definitely going to result in getting benched.

Then, one time, the play works out.

That's what happened last week: We swept all ten of our plays for +10.5 units if bet individually. If you were lucky enough to parlay them, pocket that money and get back to betting them outcome by outcome.

Justin Herbert: Under 248.5 passing yards

In thinking the Patriots have a chance to upset the Chargers, you have to like either New England's offense or its defense to succeed.

Bailey Zappe can keep drives going and not give L.A. short fields, and the Patriots' defense will give Justin Herbert trouble. At best, both Keenan Allen and right tackle Trey Pipkins will be compromised and, if the latter can't go, the Bolts' offensive line gets just as thin as Herbert's list of capable playmakers.

Jared Goff: Over 0.5 interceptions (-105)

Perhaps surprisingly, the Saints have the second-most interceptions in the NFL this season. Jared Goff has thrown an interception in six of 11 games so far and has been loose with the football lately. He may hear footsteps in the pocket while playing in a hostile environment, causing him to toss an inaccurate pass into the hands of an opportunistic defense.

Pat Freiermuth: Over 3.5 receptions

Last week in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh's offense looked its best all season. Under a new play-caller, quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan, the Steelers planned to get Kenny Pickett easy throws to Pat Freiermuth early and often. In the tight end's second game back from a hamstring injury, he hauled in nine catches on 11 targets. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Jaylen Waddle: Longest reception over 24.5 yards

After a relatively slow start to the season - in part due to lingering injuries - Jaylen Waddle caught the ball in each of his eight targets last week. Now the Dolphins visit the Commanders, who give up 7.5 yards per pass attempt (31st in the NFL) and allowed 15 yards per completion last week. Five different Cowboys had receptions of 24 yards or more in that contest and, strangely, CeeDee Lamb wasn't one of them.

Tim Boyle: Under 181.5 passing yards

It took a small miracle - or at least the late disinterest of the Dolphins' defense - for Tim Boyle to creep over his yardage total in his first Jets' start. Going over on Black Friday may have resulted in a higher bar this week, but the market expects a closer game with the Falcons favored by less than a field goal. That means less late-game garbage yardage for Boyle.

Zack Moss: Under 78.5 rushing yards

Zack Moss had a monster outing in the first matchup between the Colts and Titans, but the latter's excellent run defense will probably have more success this time around. Tennessee doesn't have to game plan for Jonathan Taylor (who made his first appearance of the season in that contest) or the threat of Anthony Richardson taking off and running.

Moss is the lone option, so his prescribed yardage total is 11 yards higher than it has been all season. And it comes in a game where the Colts' best method of attack is to focus on throwing against the Titans' suspect secondary.

Russell Wilson: Over 228.5 passing yards

Russell Wilson's gone under his passing yardage total in seven of his last eight games - but he faced seven of the top 14 defenses by yards per attempt in those games. On the road against the current leader in passing yards per game, Wilson gets a rare look at a shaky defense. Only the Bengals and Commanders give up more through the air than his opponent, the Texans.

Rachaad White: Under 68.5 rushing yards

The Buccaneers haven't run the ball effectively in two years. Even though Rachaad White got his first career 100-yard game in Indianapolis last week, I don't think they've turned over a new leaf. The Panthers can defend the run, and it's more likely White hit that milestone thanks to an outlier 38-yard carry in the fourth quarter - just the second 30-yarder of his career.

Tutu Atwell: Longest reception over 14.5 yards

Fear of Cleveland's defense is potentially depressing the Los Angeles' offensive prop totals, but the bet worth looking at is Tutu Atwell to catch a deep pass. Atwell has made a reception of 17 yards or more in eight of Matthew Stafford's ten starts this season, including five straight contests. And the vaunted Browns defense? The unit allows 7.8 yards per pass on the road compared to 3.3 at home. If the campaign ended today, that would be the league's worst overall mark of any single season.

Jalen Hurts: Under 43.5 rushing yards

After four games of going under this total, Jalen Hurts ran for 65 yards last week against Buffalo. But 27 of them came in overtime. Had Jake Elliott missed his 59-yard field goal, Hurts would be on a five-game under streak with his legs. The Bills also don't have the speedy side-to-side linebackers that can deter Hurts the way the 49ers do in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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