One year ago, it was understood that the Broncos had acquired one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL with still some time left in his prime. Seventeen games later, we're wondering whether the Broncos' latest big-money hire can salvage Russell Wilson's remaining years.
So, how much is Sean Payton worth? Under Nathaniel Hackett, the Broncos initially had a team total of 10 wins and were the second favorite to win the division. But after they won just five games all season, Denver's rating was in the bottom quartile of the league, lingering in the low 30s in our educated guess of how the market views each team.
With Payton taking over, bettors will need to be agile in trying to assess his effect on this team. Of course, Payton had to think enough of Wilson to come out of quasi-retirement with his pick of head coaching gigs.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.5 (+105) |
| Division | +500 |
| Conference | +2200 |
| Super Bowl | +4000 |
| Estimated rating | 52/100 |
With a flat win total of 8.5 in a top-notch division like the AFC West, we can assign the Broncos a market rating of 52 out of 100. That's a big jump from where they ended last season, but it's lower than where they were one year ago with a comparable roster.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | DEN -4 |
| 2 | WSH | DEN -3.5 |
| 3 | @MIA | MIA -3.5 |
| 4 | @CHI | DEN -1.5 |
| 5 | NYJ | NYJ -1 |
| 6 | @KC | KC -7 |
| 7 | GB | DEN -3.5 |
| 8 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 10 | @BUF | BUF -6 |
| 11 | MIN | DEN -2 |
| 12 | CLE | DEN -1 |
| 13 | @HOU | DEN -4 |
| 14 | @LAC | LAC -3 |
| 15 | @DET | DET -2 |
| 16 | NE | DEN -2 |
| 17 | LAC | DEN -1 |
| 18 | @LV | DEN -1 |
I'd hypothesize that the tight lines late in the schedule are due to oddsmakers not wanting to go too far toward either pole of the Broncos' potential. By example, using just a win total translation to point spreads, the good version of the Broncos should be at least a field-goal favorite at home against the Patriots. Meanwhile, if they're as bad as they were last year, the Broncos would be getting more than a field goal in Detroit.
What's to like about the Broncos
Sean Payton - the genius.
The case for a big first season in Denver is that Payton won a Super Bowl with a previous reclamation project, Drew Brees. Brees broke all sorts of records with different, seemingly interchangeable skill position players as Payton dialed up the plays that always made the Saints a threat to score.
Outside of dealing Bradley Chubb last season, the Broncos have only made upgrades to the roster. They added former 49er Mike McGlinchey to the offensive line, and a Javonte Williams-Samaje Perine combo will be better than Denver's backfield last year after Williams' ACL injury. Even a full offseason for second-year tight end Greg Dulcich is promising.
What's not to like about the Broncos
Sean Payton - overrated.
In 16 seasons - the vast majority with a future Hall of Fame quarterback - Payton only made the playoffs nine times. He got to the NFC championship just thrice, winning once for a single Super Bowl. It's a resume that looks a lot like Mike McCarthy's but with worse public relations. How hopeful would anyone be if Denver had hired McCarthy?
I'll guess we'll know in Week 1 which side of the ledger the Broncos will sit this season. They allowed a league-high 63 sacks last season. Wilson looked panicked on a weekly basis, unable to find anyone downfield and often uninterested in taking off. That would be noticeable very quickly.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | MVP | +3500 |
| Offensive POTY | +7500 | |
| Comeback POTY | +2000 | |
| Most passing yards | +3500 | |
| Most passing TD | +2000 | |
| Javonte Williams | Offensive POTY | +6000 |
| Comeback POTY | +4000 | |
| Most rushing yards | +3500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +7500 | |
| Jerry Jeudy | Offensive POTY | +6500 |
| Most receiving yards | +5000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +4000 | |
| Courtland Sutton | Offensive POTY | +6500 |
| Most receiving yards | +8000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +5000 | |
| Justin Simmons | Defensive POTY | +10000 |
| Marvin Mims | Offensive ROTY | +5500 |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +4500 | |
| Sean Payton | Coach of the Year | +900 |
If Wilson has a transformative season, he'll contend for the Comeback Player of the Year. However, it will have to be so good that he tops any player coming back from injury. If that's the case, Payton will get the most credit for guiding a career Wilson season.
The Broncos need Wilson to have an outstanding season in order for them to surpass their season win total of 8.5. That's why Payton is the second favorite to win Coach of the Year. If you're bullish on Payton's effect on the Broncos in Year 1, that's probably the best way to back Denver in a tough division and even tougher conference. If you're looking to fade Payton, game-by-game betting on the Broncos' opponents will provide ample opportunity.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
