Each Monday, we've finished off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game under one condition: You promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football offers an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting. There will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.
We've fought off a case of the Mondays well this season, saving our almost-best for last. We own a 10-7 record on the side/total and a 19-14 record on props to go 29-21 overall, making an even 58% - a number more than adequate over the long term - and adding six units of profit to our Sunday best.
And speaking of, the best is yet to come on Monday night. It won't necessarily be in the form of our bets - there are no guarantees there - but the last regular-season Monday Night Football game is shaping up to be the most entertaining of the campaign and maybe in quite some time.
Bills @ Bengals (+2, 49.5)
This line opened at pick'em, indicating that the Bengals' power rating in the market is as high as it's probably ever been - including at any point during their run to the Super Bowl last year. There's a reason Cincinnati is 20-3 against the spread in its last 23 games. You can't have that record if you've been appropriately valued, so an adjustment was inevitable. However, it may finally be coming at an inopportune time.
For comparison, the last time the Bills went on the road to visit an upper-echelon team, they were 3-point favorites at the Chiefs. A pick'em line suggests that the Bengals are that much better than Kansas City. Cincinnati is now getting what it deserves and then some, but the line slowly moving toward a field goal starts making more sense when you look at it through that lens.
Why have the Bengals suddenly gotten this credit with mainstream media just now noticing their spread record? Seven straight wins help - one came against the aforementioned Chiefs in an evenly played game, with both teams registering 6.5 yards per play. Cincinnati, 2.5-point home underdogs in that contest, might be getting credit for its three straight wins over K.C. - a matchup that's worked in the team's favor.
But this current iteration of the Bengals hasn't played the Bills, meaning we don't know what to expect from either side. However, one factor wasn't present during Cincinnati's win streak.
The Bengals lost right tackle La'el Collins for the season last week. Rebuilding an offensive line at this point in the campaign is a major setback, especially when Collins' addition was the key reason Joe Burrow's protection was no longer a massive issue. While Cincinnati may overcome that in the playoffs, facing Buffalo in the first full game without Collins will be a challenge, given the Bills' depth on the defensive line.
Three games ago, Cincinnati only out-gained the Browns by 19 yards in an improbable cover at home. The Bengals managed just 3.8 yards per play when the Buccaneers' handed them short field after short field two weeks ago. Finally, they nearly blew a 22-0 lead last week to the Patriots, benefitting late from a lazy whistle on Rhamondre Stevenson's fumble inside the 10-yard line.
The Bengals' rating increase is deserved, but it strangely comes when they haven't been playing their best and is overshadowed by their stretch of wins. Meanwhile, the Bills are on a quieter six-game streak and going for the AFC's 1-seed to avoid a return to trip Ohio or having to go to Arrowhead Stadium for a third straight year. Josh Allen and company play to the top of their range offensively and win a close game.
Pick: Bills -2
Joe Burrow under 286.5 passing yards
If Collins' absence does end up being an issue, it's reasonable to think that Burrow throws for less than 287 yards for the sixth time in his last eight games. The Bills' pass defense allows the league's fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt.
You can run on Buffalo, so Cincinnati should try to lean on Joe Mixon to keep some pressure off Burrow. Throwing the ball 52 times in New England almost cost the club last week, so unless the Bengals go down big in the first half, they should take a more conservative approach.
Devin Singletary over 10.5 receiving yards
On the road in a hostile environment, Allen needs to look at his reliable targets. While Devin Singletary's season-long receiving averages suggest a line this low, Allen will be more apt to dump the ball off to him. In the Bills' toughest games this campaign - at the Dolphins, at the Ravens, at the Chiefs, at the Jets, versus Miami in the cold - Singletary has at least three catches on four targets and between 22 and 78 yards receiving.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
