NFL Week 12 player props: The thin line between love and hate
It's the laughter that's what keeps us from crying in the sports betting space. A 3-7 week was brutal both due to the record and the way in which most of the bets were lost.
|Davis Mills||Over 19.5 comps||19|
|Hunter Henry||Over 23.5 rec yds||1 rec / 20 yds|
|Jonathan Taylor||Over 85.5 rush yds||84 yds|
|Justin Fields||Over 17.5 longest rush||17 yds|
|Kenny Pickett||Under 32.5 longest pass comp||33 yds|
It's a thin line between 8-2 and 3-7. In some cases, it can come down to scorekeeper decisions to round up or down on a play's yardage. However, they say it all evens out, so we'll hope that's the case this week.
Sam Darnold longest pass completion under 31.5 yards
Darnold is back behind center for the Panthers. They've done a full circle at the quarterback position since Darnold finished last season as their No. 1. In those final three games of 2021, Darnold threw 100 total passes following an injury. He completed just one for longer than 30 yards. In what should be a low-scoring game against a tough Broncos defense, and after so much time off, look for Darnold to manage Carolina's offense with shorter passes.
Trevor Lawrence over 14.5 rushing yards
In the first four games of the season, Lawrence recorded no more than three carries. In the six games since, he's had at least three rushes while going over 14.5 yards five times. That may be because he's been able to rekindle his zone-read plays with former Clemson teammate Travis Etienne, who's become Jacksonville's No. 1 tailback. Fresh off of a bye, Lawrence should scramble over this number against the Ravens' pressure.
Mike Evans over 4.5 receptions
Evans has averaged 5.4 catches over nine games this season. Despite the Buccaneers' stubborn desire to run the football, Evans has been targeted 43 times in the last four games while catching at least five passes in each contest. So, what are we missing here? Because it's not an awesome Browns pass defense.
Cordarrelle Patterson under 47.5 rushing yards
Patterson crept over this number last week, but that was just the third time he's done so all season. The Commanders' run defense is too good, and the Falcons have so many options that Patterson might be better used as a receiver. Expect fewer than 10 carries for Patterson, and tough sledding when he gets them.
Joe Burrow over 36.5 pass attempts
The Bengals might have gotten lucky with the timing of Joe Mixon's absence. Samaje Perine thrives in the passing game, which the Titans struggle to defend. Even if Ja'Marr Chase isn't ready to return, there's still reason to believe that Cincinnati will go with a throw-heavy game plan in Tennessee.
Tua Tagovailoa under 291.5 passing yards
It's easy to understand why Tagovailoa would have his highest yardage total of the year here. The Dolphins, who are 14-point favorites, should be able to do whatever they want against Houston's defense. However, since the Texans have been dominated on the ground this season, and because Tua may not be needed in the fourth quarter for a second straight game, he stays under this inflated total.
Michael Carter over 45.5 rushing yards
Expectations on Mike White have to be tempered despite the Jets' recent quarterback change. New York's defense just needs good field position to get its work done, which means a big workload for both Michael Carter and James Robinson. Both tailbacks are worth a play for an anytime touchdown at +150 or better as well.
Kyler Murray under 248.5 passing yards
Hamstring injuries are notoriously sketchy, but this number suggests Murray will make it through the game unscathed. Even if he does, the way to attack the Chargers is on the ground. Those carries will take away from Murray's pass attempts. Plus, the Chargers' offense can sustain drives against the Cardinals, which will limit overall possessions.
Tyler Lockett longest reception over 22.5 yards
Two weeks ago, we correctly faded Lockett against a good Bucs secondary because we didn't think he'd be able to get open. This is the opposite scenario. Lockett can find space down the field against the Raiders' secondary, which gives up the fourth-most yards per pass. Hopefully, Geno Smith will find him deep at least once.
George Kittle under 45.5 receiving yards
On Monday, we were on Kittle to go over his yardage because the Cardinals are the worst in the NFL at defending tight ends. Six days later, he faces the Saints, who've given up the third-fewest yards per game to opposing tight ends. The 49ers have plenty of targets to choose from, so expect them to look elsewhere Sunday.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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