TNF player props: Looking for a similar story in Falcons-Panthers rematch
Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.
"You think this is all a big joke, don't ya? ... Maybe that's how you get your kicks, you and your good-time buddies. Well, I gotta flash for you, Joy Boy: Party time is over." - Library cop Joe Bookman investigating Jerry for a book 20 years overdue.
After a six-game cover streak to start the season, the party's been over for Falcons bettors for three straight weeks. Panthers bettors were also hit with a rude awakening last Sunday.
In Season 3, Episode 5 of "Seinfeld," a library cop chases a bewildered Jerry down for two decade's worth of overdue library fees. The confusion stems from mistaking two similar books. If the Panthers and Falcons' Week 8 instant classic was "Tropic of Cancer," hopefully Thursday night's rematch will follow the same indistinguishable plotlines like the follow-up story, "Tropic of Capricorn."
'The Library'
No matter who the quarterback is, our initial reaction to the Panthers' passing game is: "Can't stand ya." Like George's gym teacher/bully turned homeless man at the library, there's plenty to dislike.
Two weeks ago, DJ Moore was lined at 60.5 receiving yards before facing the Falcons' shorthanded secondary. Even before he caught the miracle 62-yard touchdown that sent the game to overtime, he was already at 90 yards.
PJ Walker looked toward Moore for double-digit targets against both the Buccaneers and the Falcons. While last Sunday's contest against the Bengals got away from the Panthers almost immediately, they should get back to forcing looks to Moore with a game script that should be pretty level. Hopefully, that doesn't leave us feeling worse than Costanza after an atomic wedgie.
Pick: DJ Moore over 58.5 receiving yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
Of course George had "Tropic of Cancer!" Sometimes the most obvious answer is the right answer. There are a plethora of options for rushing touchdowns on both sides, but when Cordarrelle Patterson plays, he gets into the end zone.
The Falcons' run-constant approach feels like a bigger scam than the Dewey Decimal System, but whether it's Kramer conversing with Marion the librarian or bettors looking for a touchdown scorer, we're willing to ignore our biases and lean into the numbers.
"The Library" is worth watching just for Philip Baker Hall's scene-stealing monologues, just as this game is worth watching for Patterson's appearances. Before he got hurt, Patterson got the ball 10 times in the red zone in the first four games of the season. He only played 39% of the snaps in his return last Sunday but had a season-high four red-zone looks. This shows that the Falcons are managing Patterson's workload with the intention of making him available in scoring opportunities. He has touchdowns in four of five games played this season, making this bet as appealing as Sherry Becker's orange dress.
Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson anytime touchdown (+100)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
"It reminds me of this pathetic friend that everybody had when they were a little kid who would let you borrow any of his stuff if you would just be his friend. That's what the library is: A government-funded pathetic friend."
The only bet we didn't win last week was our long-shot touchdown, as Boston Scott would skip onto the field only to be used as a decoy at the goal line. That's no different than the ventriloquist dummy Jerry talks about to open "The Library." Like friends, not all snaps are created equal.
Shi Smith is a second-year receiver who had a season-high 80% snap share last Sunday. That was partly due to the need for three-receiver sets in a futile effort to come from behind, but with the Falcons' secondary so thin, the Panthers should rely on that personnel this week. With a need to get a look at younger players, the speedy Smith might have a play or two designed for him to beat Atlanta deep. A connection will have us tearing up like Kramer reading Marion's poetry - even if Mr. Lippman doesn't like it.
Pick: Shi Smith anytime touchdown (+550)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.