NFL Week 5 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser

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The Cardinals' kicker gets hurt, setting off a series of failed two-point conversions, and a sure-fire over 42.5 falls a half-point short in Carolina. The Raiders beat the Broncos by three field goals, and the winning margin lands on nine - a result that happens in the NFL 1.46% of the time. As a result, two half-points cause a 4.3-unit swing. Welcome to betting on the NFL.

Our record-keeping also includes a pair of pushes on 3-point spreads last week, though intrepid bettors likely found at least one winner, as the Saints and Ravens could be had at +3.5 or better on Sunday. These are the perils of publishing betting plays on deadline.

BET TYPE LAST WEEK SEASON (units)
ATS trio 0-1-2 5-5-2 (-0.5)
ML upset +1.7 3-1 (+4.6)
Totals -1.1 1-3 (-2.3)
Teasers -1.2 2-2 (-0.4)
TOTAL -1.7 +1.4

Best bets ATS

Buccaneers -9.5

This line has jumped up to -9.5 and may be headed to double digits, so if you haven't grabbed the rare valuable favorite, do so ASAP. I'm on record as being confused about how subtracting Matt Ryan and adding a mobile quarterback in Marcus Mariota was the downgrade the market believed it to be in the preseason. However, the line for this matchup last year was close to two touchdowns.

The Buccaneers opened -8 and have risen in part due to Cordarrelle Patterson's injury, Kyle Pitts' questionable availability, and teaser liability piling up. The Falcons' fun offense becomes a lot more pedestrian without those two threats, while the Buccaneers get some continuity for Tom Brady with a healthy wide receiver corps - many of whom were around when Brady threw nine touchdowns and just one interception against Atlanta in two matchups last year.

Patriots -3 (-115)

Bill Belichick was fired up against the Packers last week, potentially thriving on the challenge of slowing down Aaron Rodgers. This week, the Patriots get Jared Goff - whom Belichick neutralized in Super Bowl LIII.

The Lions have pulled off quite the illusion - convincing bettors that they're to be reckoned with, but they also just lost at home to the Seahawks and sit 1-3. The Detroit defense is an abomination, and either Patriots young quarterback can maneuver through it with the aid of a good running game.

Pay the extra five cents to get -3 on a New England team playing just its second home game and whose losses are to the Dolphins, Ravens, and Packers - three teams out of Detroit's league.

Commanders +2.5

Advanced advice would include the recommendation to wait for one possession before you bet on the Commanders since the Titans are 4/4 on their scripted first drives this season. After which, the offense dries right up.

Defensively, Washington has fared well against top tailbacks so far this season. Ryan Tannehill won't be able to take advantage of Washington's weak secondary, especially without Treylon Burks.

As mentioned in the round-robin underdog moneyline parlay, backing Carson Wentz is no party, but the Titans are dead last in the league in opponents' passer rating. Wentz will have the most time he's had all season to find his weapons.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Bears +300

Speaking of our best underdog bets of the week, I'm not surprised the spread has lengthened in the Bears-Vikings game. That's a fair move based on market ratings this season. However, I don't trust Minnesota, and now that we're getting 3-1 on our money, it's worth a shot that the Bears' offense can do enough to counteract what their defense may give up this week.

The expectation will be that Justin Fields has his best passing game of the season in rare dry conditions, and the Bears will continue to run the ball successfully against a Vikings defense that rates in the middle of the pack.

Best total bet

Dolphins-Jets under 46 (-110)

The Jets are going to have a hard time protecting Zach Wilson with backup tackles against the Dolphins' defense, and Teddy Bridgewater's never been known for connecting on deep passes.

Miami has gone over this total once - its track meet in Baltimore. The Jets' miracle in Cleveland didn't just give them a win, but it was their lone game to crack 46 points.

The Jets' defense has been average against quarterbacks this season but better than average against the run. Since Bridgewater is the definition of the median QB, don't expect much punch from the Fins' offense, which is also how we always treat the Jets.

Best 6-point teaser

Packers -2 / Browns +8.5 (-120)

We'll start Sunday with a morning tease of the Packers. Being still able to get Green Bay under a field goal allows the mathematically-best use of a teaser leg this week.

The Bucs' line has pulled up and out of teaser range, but we have a new qualifier since our early-week teaser report: the Browns. Money has come in on Cleveland with rumors that Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney may be ready to return. Moreover, the Chargers haven't fixed their 31st-ranked run defense, which gave up a combined 222 rush yards to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last year.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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NFL Week 5 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser
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