Following a head coaching change and the Tyreek Hill addition, there sure is a lot of optimism for the Miami Dolphins heading into 2022.
Lawsuits ensued after Brian Flores was fired; Mike McDaniel now takes over the Dolphins. Miami then traded for Tyreek Hill, handing him the big contract he couldn't get in Kansas City. Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, for now, after playing in 13 games last season.
How does the market begin to evaluate a somewhat bizarre set of circumstances?
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.0 (+105/-125) |
| Division | +450 |
| Conference | +2000 |
| Super Bowl | +4000 |
The AFC East rival Bills will take up a lot of the win probability for a division title, but at nine wins, the Dolphins are being lined as a contender should Buffalo falter. However, reading the market, we see a lean to the under in the Dolphins' win total.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | -2.5 |
| 2 | @BAL | +4 |
| 3 | BUF | +3.5 |
| 4 | @CIN | +4 |
| 5 | @NYJ | -2.5 |
| 6 | MIN | -3 |
| 7 | PIT | -4.5 |
| 8 | @DET | -3 |
| 9 | @CHI | -3 |
| 10 | CLE | N/A |
| 12 | HOU | -7 |
| 13 | @SF | +3.5 |
| 14 | @LAC | +5.5 |
| 15 | @BUF | +6 |
| 16 | GB | +1 |
| 17 | @NE | +1.5 |
| 18 | NYJ | -5.5 |
Week 1's line opened at -3, suggesting that the Dolphins were rated higher than the Patriots as the second-best team in the AFC East. That's been bet down under a field goal this summer. The Fins' first nine games are lined at a field goal, with Miami the favorite more often than not. There is an extremely wide range of records the Dolphins could have heading into their Week 11 bye. The schedule gets even more difficult later in the season with three straight road games against Super Bowl contenders.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
After leading the NFL with 1.8 takeaways per game in 2020, the Dolphins' sustained that production in 2021, turning their opponents over 1.5 times per game. If that's a matter of scheme over luck, McDaniel was right to retain defensive coordinator Josh Boyer as a holdover from Flores' tenure. They'll need to create those turnovers, as the defense has been just average on a yards per play allowed basis.
Weaknesses
Last season, the Panthers had to turn to Cam Newton, and the Giants were running consecutive quarterback sneaks with 10 yards to go at one point. The Dolphins managed to just barely edge those teams in offensive yards per play at 4.8.
The investment in Hill, veteran offensive linemen Terron Armstead and Connor Williams, along with an armada of tailbacks, is designed to see if Tagovailoa can prove it. A 32nd-ranked offensive line, according to PFF, needed desperately to be improved upon. It might just be a one-year audition, but the Dolphins do have two seasons to figure out whether Tua is their long-term answer.
Opportunities
Dolphins-related bets should come from the extremes. Tagovailoa's ability to throw quickly and accurately fits comfortably with the skill sets of Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki. If he misses time, Teddy Bridgewater - he of the outstanding underdog record - might be able to lead the Fins to a big season as a backup. This presumes the defense keeps turning teams over, causing high-variance game results.
Threats
If the defensive turnovers dry up the way they're supposed to based on statistical regression, then the defense - without a name more recognizable than Xavien Howard - becomes merely pedestrian.
How to bet the Dolphins
It's worth mentioning that the last time NFL games were being played, there was a desire for teams to deploy a "Deebo Samuel-type" player. Should Hill provide that threat at peak performance for former 49ers' coach McDaniel, he's capable of winning Offensive Player of the Year (+6000). Something decidedly more likely than an MVP (+5000) from Tagovailoa.
As a general believer in continuity being the most important X-factor in sports, a long shot bet on the Dolphins, for me, would lean to the negative. Given that Bridgewater's presence means their floor is a little higher, I would look at the under on 3950.5 passing yards from Tagovailoa.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
