TNF player props: Cowboys, Saints look to get back to winning ways
In Part 1 of Peter Jackson's new documentary, "The Beatles: Get Back," George Harrison repeatedly expresses reverence for Eric Clapton's guitar prowess. If Harrison were alive today, this film would be a painfully ironic reminder that a decade later, Clapton would marry Harrison's ex-wife. This game provides its own painful memory for those of us who backed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving or those who hoped our red-hot start to Thursday props would continue.
The Cowboys and Saints come off midweek losses only to be featured again on Thursday Night Football.
See the over, "Let it Be"
After our words of wisdom started 4-0 for our biggest bet, the player usage prop, we went 0-for-3 on Thanksgiving. While we encountered some bad luck, the responsibility to "Get Back" is "I Me Mine."
After scouring "Across The Universe" for injury information, the one thing that seems certain is that the Cowboys will run Ezekiel Elliott back out there. Whether it's my belief that he won't make it through the game without a limp, the clear evidence that Tony Pollard is the more dangerous weapon, or the Saints' staunch run defense, if a sportsbook is willing to line Elliott any higher than 40 yards, I can "Dig It" to bet the under.
Pick: Ezekiel Elliott under 45.5 rushing yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
For all the sorrow in the yardage prop category, we did cash nicely with Dalton Schultz last week to make us profitable. This week, if Taysom Hill plays, even if not the nominal starter, I'm hitting this like the guy dropping the hammer on the iron block in "Maggie Mae."
Hill has dressed as the emergency quarterback for two weeks after missing a game prior to that. Now, reports indicate he's taking first-team reps in practice as the Saints search for answers on offense after last week's rough effort.
Given that Hill can score on the ground or by catching a pass from Trevor Siemian, there's not a "Long and Winding Road" for him to travel to cash for us.
Pick: Taysom Hill anytime touchdown (+275)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
We nailed our long-shot TD prediction last week, with Matt Breida scooting in for a score (+550) to win back almost six games worth of swings and misses. (The intrepid bettor may have tried his hand with Cowboys tight end Sean McKeon, who was mentioned as a prime candidate and did score.)
Sometimes, these can come down to just "I've Got a Feeling." But with Lil'Jordan Humphrey getting his snaps cranked up to 47% last week (third-most of all Saints WRs), including many that included a route run in the end zone, there's reason to believe Humphrey might be the big target for Hill or Siemian if the Cowboys' corners are shadowing the Saints' top two pass-catchers. It would be nice if the price was "One After 909," but anything better than +500 is worth a shot.
Pick: Lil'Jordan Humphrey anytime touchdown (+850)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.