NFL Week 10 O/U best bets: Don't overlook Cardinals defense
A late QB change doomed one of our three picks in Week 9, but we still managed a 2-1 record in the most unpredictable week of the season. Can we build upon that in Week 10 with a trio of unders?
Saints @ Titans (-3, 44.5), 1 p.m. ET
If these two teams were at full strength, perhaps the over would be a more intriguing play. But injuries have forced both clubs to rely on their defenses, which have risen to the challenge in recent weeks.
The Titans scored 28 points in their statement win Sunday over the Rams despite mustering just 194 yards of total offense, as two errant throws by Matthew Stafford directly resulted in a pair of Tennessee touchdowns. This unit's relentless pressure will be an issue for Trevor Siemian, who led his team to just three points through the first three quarters of last week's game before a fruitless comeback attempt.
Conversely, despite an off showing against the Falcons, the Saints' defense is still a top-five unit by most metrics and should have an answer for the wounded Titans attack. This is a "first to 21" type of affair, so take advantage.
Pick: Under 44.5
Browns @ Patriots (-1.5, 45.5), 1 p.m.
Sometimes looks can be deceiving. Yes, the Browns scored 41 points a week ago in a blowout win over the Bengals, but they also benefitted from three 60-plus-yard touchdowns (pass, run, interception return) after scoring one such play through their first eight games combined.
Before Sunday's outburst, Cleveland scored 17 or fewer points in three consecutive contests, and its offense still managed just 14 first downs a week ago and converted 3-of-9 third-down attempts. The Patriots' defense is allowing the fourth-fewest first downs per game (18.8) and ranks fourth in scoring defense (18.9 PPG) after smothering the Panthers a week ago.
The X-factor is this New England offense, which dropped 54 points two weeks ago but has otherwise averaged 22 points per game and scored fewer than 30 points in each of its other eight contests. If we see that version of the Patriots' offense Sunday, the Browns will be hard-pressed to carry this one over.
Pick: Under 45.5
Panthers @ Cardinals (-10, 44.5), 4:05 p.m.
If you've been following from the beginning, you know that we identified the Panthers early as a cash cow for the under, especially once the team lost Christian McCaffrey. Sure enough, Carolina is 7-2 to the under this season and scored just six points in McCaffrey's return Sunday, which was marred by yet another turnover-laden day from Sam Darnold.
He's unlikely to fare much better against a Cardinals defense that ranks third in takeaways (17) and has quietly held six of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less. Arizona has managed more than 31 points just twice in those seven games, and it faces a stiff test against the Panthers, who have allowed the NFL's fewest yards per drive (23.8) and fourth-fewest points per drive (1.64).
Pick: Under 44.5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.