Defensive Rookie of the Year odds, best bets: Paying for name brands

The "cheerleader effect" is a theory postulated by one of the most scrutinized philosophers of our time, Barney Stinson. To paraphrase the concept: When grouped together, a subset of the population appears more impressive than the same people do when evaluated individually.

That might have been the situation in the 2021 NFL Draft. No single defensive player stood out for teams, eventually allowing some of us to cash Jaycee Horn as the first defender off the board. As we look at the odds for DROY, it's a solid group - but is any individual player worth the investment of our time and money?

The Defensive Rookie of the Year market is a different handicap than its offensive counterpart: Talent is less important, while opportunity is even more so. These players have been evaluated from a talent standpoint and checked all the same boxes. Opportunity is crucial because, for defenders, there's less of it. Sacks and interceptions are counting stats they only get a few chances to accumulate each week. Edge rushers need to convert when they've got a shot at wrapping up the quarterback, and corners can't drop those wayward throws.

For years, linebackers usually won this award, but from Sheldon Richardson's 2013 victory onward, only defensive linemen or cornerbacks have received the honor. That shouldn't be surprising - good defenses in this era need to pressure the passer and apply tight coverage in the secondary.

Kwity Paye (+1000)

DROY is the only market where the preseason actually matters. Top defensive players play more than their offensive counterparts, and the reps can show you whether a player who's expected to be a key cog is actually ready for that NFL smoke. With apologies to Joe Tryon, who's impressed but needs to find a way into the mix with the Buccaneers, we're hoping Kwity pay(e)s off for us. The numbers and tape both flatter Paye, as the Colts appear to be getting exactly what they hoped for when they nabbed the Michigan product to help their pass rush.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (+1200)

It's tough to find a DROY winner whose team missed the playoffs, and Owusu-Koramoah should get some quality chances on Myles Garrett's defense. The Browns moved the former Notre Dame edge rusher to weak-side linebacker, with an eye to giving him a running start at various holes in opponents' offensive lines. Not a first-round pick, but a first-round talent, Owusu-Koramoah should get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to playing time over the veteran incumbents in Cleveland.

Asante Samuel Jr. (+4000)

Patrick Surtain II looked good in the preseason, even taking an interception to the house, but that sapped some of his value, as he's jumped fellow "corners who are sons of former NFLers" on the oddsboard. So while there is risk in fading Surtain, I'll take the value with Asante Samuel Jr., who is on a less stacked Los Angeles Chargers defense rather than the veteran-laden Broncos corps Surtain is joining. Samuel will have plenty of opportunity, and if he's half the ball hawk his dad was, he'll get a few chances for pick-6s when the games count. Plus, his familiar name means he's more likely to pop up on voters' radars early in the season.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.