Super Bowl matchup props: Bet the Bucs to beat the Bills
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Bettors will be in for a treat for Super Bowl LV, no matter how the conference championships pan out. Frankly, there isn't a bad matchup on the board.
Football's version of the Final Four has narratives aplenty. There's MVP hopeful Aaron Rodgers and the Packers taking on Tom Brady in his first year with the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship, and the defending champion Chiefs squaring off with Josh Allen and the high-powered Bills' offense a few hours later.
There are eight potential outcomes for the Super Bowl - again, not one of them would be short on entertainment, especially for those without a dog in the fight. But which is the most intriguing to bet?
Let's dig into the Super Bowl matchup prop market.
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chiefs to beat Packers | +325 |
| Packers to beat Chiefs | +450 |
| Bills to beat Packers | +525 |
| Chiefs to beat Buccaneers | +575 |
| Packers to beat Bills | +575 |
| Buccaneers to beat Chiefs | +825 |
| Bills to beat Buccaneers | +900 |
| Buccaneers to beat Bills | +900 |
Best bet
Buccaneers to beat the Bills +900
We're betting on both underdogs to win outright this weekend, but we're also investing in arguably the two hottest teams in the NFL. Let's start with Tampa Bay.
DVOA sees the Buccaneers as the best team left standing. Truthfully, it's not even close.
| Rank | Team | DVOA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saints | 33.3% |
| 2 | Buccaneers | 31.5% |
| 3 | Packers | 25.9% |
| 4 | Bills | 23.8% |
| 5 | Seahawks | 20.1% |
| 6 | Chiefs | 19.5% |
Tampa Bay's rise from No. 14 in this department last year to No. 2 this season was the third-biggest improvement, behind only Washington (No. 30 to 16) and Miami (No. 32 to 14). As it stands, the Bucs are the only team with both a top-five DVOA offense (No. 3) and defense (No. 5).
The offense is on fire over the last five, cashing all five team total overs to the tune of 36.6 points per game. The defensive unit hasn't allowed more than 27 points in nine straight, ranking No. 7 in yards per play and No. 8 in scoring.
This is the perfect opportunity to invest in Brady and Co. - after all, the future Hall of Famer's a blistering 40-17-1 against the spread as an underdog.
Now, let's turn our attention to the Bills.
They've won nine of their last 10, both straight up and ATS. Buffalo's advanced metrics check out, with the team ranking third in total DVOA. In the last meeting against the Chiefs, Kansas City had the ball for roughly 16 more minutes, ran 22 more plays, and logged 260 more yards. It was a masterful game plan from head coach Andy Reid.
From a pure numbers perspective, this is simply the perfect time to buy the Bills. The club is playing its style of football at the right time and also happens to draw the Chiefs during a week in which quarterback Patrick Mahomes' status is up in the air.
Finally, I'd project Tampa Bay as slight favorites over Buffalo in the Super Bowl. Brady faces a foe he faced twice per season for roughly 20 years and cements his legacy as the GOAT, leading the franchise to a title in his first season and ultimately tying the bow on this 9-1 long shot.
Oh, and if the Bills and Bucs both suffer double-digit losses this weekend, you'll know who to thank for the jinx.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.