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Buccaneers at Packers betting preview: Back Brady as a 'dog

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Tom Brady and the Buccaneers versus Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the NFC Championship Game? Sign us all the way up.

The two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks will go toe-to-toe this weekend with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Will the Bucs win another game as road 'dogs, or will Rodgers register another signature victory for Green Bay (-3.5, 50.5)?

Here's everything bettors should know for Sunday's highly anticipated matchup.

Trends and results

The third time was the charm for Brady and the Bucs, who beat the Saints 30-20 in the divisional round after getting outscored 72-26 in two regular-season games. Tampa Bay has now scored at least 30 points in five straight contests, averaging 36.6 per game over that span.

But if the Bucs' offense is on fire, Green Bay's is scalding-hot - the Packers rank No. 1 in the league in DVOA and have averaged 33 points per game over their last eight contests, going 6-2 to the team total over during that stretch.

Rodgers has been in the zone in this spot, going 12-6-1 against the spread in the postseason and 5-2 ATS as a favorite of three points or more. Meanwhile, bettors who want to bet Brady as an underdog yet again get their wish this weekend. The star quarterback is an impressive 40-17-1 ATS in that role, including 5-3 in the playoffs.

X-factor

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

As impactful as Tampa Bay's offense is, the defense has been equally stellar. The Bucs held Rodgers to season lows in completions (16) and passer rating (35.4) back in Week 6, and they're fresh off limiting New Orleans' Drew Brees to just 134 yards and three picks.

If there's one player who can give Green Bay a spark in the passing game Sunday, it's Valdes-Scantling. He's the league leader in yards per catch (20.9), and he can threaten a secondary that's been plagued by speed at different points this season. Remember what Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill did to Tampa Bay?

Also, bettors might be rooting extra hard for Valdes-Scantling to hit pay dirt: The over has cashed in four of the last six games when he scores a touchdown.

Best bet

Buccaneers +3.5

So, the Packers might be elite? They're far and away the league's best offense, they're at home with a weather advantage, and they have the likely MVP under center. Green Bay is currently on a demolition, covering three straight and outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game. Mind you, we are in the conference championship; the Packers are putting on a clinic at the most important part of the season.

However, I wouldn't pass up the opportunity to play Brady as a 'dog. He's cashed north of 70% of spreads when catching points in his career and Tampa Bay's the only club in the NFL that's top five in both DVOA offense and defense.

Grab the Bucs at anything better than +3.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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