Ravens 2020 player props: Lamar Jackson will carve up opposing secondaries
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Remember those conservative, bore-you-to-death Baltimore Ravens offenses? Quarterback Lamar Jackson had about enough of that.
The reigning MVP helped the franchise pace the NFL in both DVOA offense (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and points per game last season. From the last five seasons, the 2019 Ravens' 27.7% DVOA offense - which measures a team's efficiency on a per-play basis - is second to only the 2018 Kansas City Chiefs.
Will Baltimore make another leap in 2020, or come back down to earth? Let's dive into the player props for the upcoming season and see where there's value.
Lamar Jackson - O/U 3,225.5 passing yards
Over: -110
Under: -110
Jackson put up a masterful campaign. He helped the Ravens rank No. 1 in both DVOA pass and rush offense. Baltimore's otherworldly efficiency at running the ball set up the pass, and the result was 3,127 yards and 36 touchdowns through the air for the franchise QB.
Accounting for close to 4,500 yards of total offense over the course of a regular season is a solid day at the office, and this isn't to nitpick the MVP - but it's fair to wonder just how much Jackson left on the table as a passer.
For starters, he was well below league average on passes thrown 15 or more yards down the field. Jackson's 33.3% completion rate on deep balls ranked 23rd among qualified quarterbacks.
Second, there weren't many opportunities in general. The Ravens topped the league in run-play percentage, dialing one up on roughly 54% of their offensive snaps, while their 29.3 pass plays per game ranked last.
Looking at the upcoming season's strength of schedule, Baltimore has it easiest. That could potentially imply more leads - and more running the football - but opposing secondaries are the schedule's obvious weakness: Baltimore will play eight of its regular-season games against teams that ranked 20th or worse in DVOA pass defense last season.
The Ravens' offense has every piece in place to lead the NFL in a plethora of categories once again in 2020. Don't be surprised if it's the passing game that takes a huge step forward.
Pick: Over
Mark Andrews - O/U 850.5 receiving yards
Over: -110
Under: -110
You'd typically think the over on a quarterback's passing yards would correlate to the over on his No. 1 option's receiving yards, but I'm a bit more bearish on Andrews' 2020 outlook.
Not a whole lot went wrong for the tight end last year outside of missing a couple games due to injury. At his position, Andrews ranked first in targets, deep targets, average target distance, touchdowns, and hog rate. He's climbed his way up the tight end rankings with last season's 64-852-10 line, but are his production and role in the offense sustainable?
While I love the prospects of buying Baltimore's passing game in general, I don't specifically love Andrews in this spot. The Ravens should have a lot more balance in the receiving corps, including a potential second-year leap from Marquise Brown, who saw fewer than 70 targets in 2019.
Pick: Under
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.