NFL Draft odds: Will a surprise team take Justin Herbert?
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Who knew a sought-after prospect playing a premium position could come with some many draft possibilities?
Oregon product Justin Herbert is the consensus No. 3 quarterback in the 2020 class behind Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, and he could be a potential franchise cornerstone. But it wouldn't be the draft without rumors, smoke, and other rumblings leading up to the event.
Herbert has been linked primarily to the Dolphins (No. 5 pick) and the Chargers (No. 6) based on fit and need. But as we've seen in the past, anything can happen.
Here are the prices for which team will draft the 6-foot-6 signal-caller next Thursday.
Odds to draft Justin Herbert
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dolphins | +100 |
| Chargers | +225 |
| Patriots | +600 |
| Jaguars | +800 |
| Panthers | +950 |
| Raiders | +1600 |
| Colts | +2000 |
| Bengals | +2500 |
| Redskins | +2500 |
| Broncos | +3000 |
| Lions | +3000 |
| Buccaneers | +3000 |
The favorites
The over/under for Herbert's draft spot is 5.5, with the over the chalk. Yet the Dolphins are +100 to draft him? I'm a walking thinking-face emoji. Miami should have its pick of the litter while on the clock. However, deciphering whether the franchise likes Tagovailoa or Herbert has been the obstacle.
The Chargers (+225) are in the same boat. The Dolphins pick before them, which means Los Angeles could be handed the consolation prize, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Do any teams offer value?
Herbert lacking a true landing spot makes this intriguing. Burrow and Chase Young have been slotted into their new homes already, but all it takes is one trade, reach, or surprise pick for the script to alter.
Jacksonville at 8-1 makes a lot of sense for Herbert, and the Jaguars haven't been consistently connected to him. The Jaguars hold two first-round picks (Nos. 9 and 20), traded away quarterback Nick Foles last month, and there wouldn't be a sunk cost at the position because Gardner Minshew was a sixth-round flier last year.
The Raiders are another long shot at 12-1, although I'm not as bullish on buying a team with a starter in place already, and another backup signed this offseason. There are plenty of needs to fill in Oakland, but the Raiders could really use a game-changer under center to counter Patrick Mahomes in the division.
Best bet
Los Angeles Chargers (+225)
Our own Tom Casale linked Tagovailoa to L.A. in his piece this week. I have some skin in on that too, as well as the Chargers drafting Herbert at plus-money.
The Chargers could have made a move in free agency. Instead, their lack of activity to address the quarterback position in a hot market was telling. Their eyes are undoubtedly set on a 2020 prospect.
Rather than try to read the tea leaves, I'll take the Chargers to draft both quarterbacks at plus-money and leave with the small profit.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.