NFL Thanksgiving Day action report: Bettors fading injured Lions
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All eyes are on the NFL during Thanksgiving Day, which features three games from Week 13. Where is the sharp money going? What lines are moving the most?
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Thanksgiving schedule.
All lines courtesy of theScore Bet.
Chicago Bears (-4.5, 38) at Detroit Lions
This line has been moving toward Chicago all week with the news that the Lions, already without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, could be without backup Jeff Driskel, too. Undrafted rookie David Blough is getting first-team reps and has never thrown a pass for Detroit, which has lost six straight against the spread.
"As you can imagine, it's mostly Bears," Rood said.
Chicago is seeing a 20-to-1 advantage in money on straight bets and a 10-to-1 money edge on parlays, moving the opening line from -2.5 to -4.5. The line may continue to climb, especially if Blough is declared the starter. The total, meanwhile, has moved to 37.5 after sitting at 39 on Tuesday, which was already low thanks to two inept offenses.
If Stafford was starting this game, Rood says Detroit would likely be between -1 and -2.5. Without him, books will be pulling for the hapless Lions on Thanksgiving Day - a feeling all too familiar over the years.
"It's all straight Bears," Rood said. "There's no getting around it."
Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 46.5)
The Cowboys are often a popular play on Thanksgiving, but the Bills are the ones drawing the slight edge this year.
Buffalo is pulling roughly 60% of the money in straight bets and parlays with a similar ratio in ticket count at +7 (-120). Moneyline bettors are almost exclusively siding with the road 'dog at +255, though the Bills love affair likely won't last into Thursday.
"I think we'll see Cowboy money show up," Rood said. "I would expect this game to close a solid -7 flat."
These two clubs are known to be solid defensive squads, but Dallas' high-powered offense is coaxing bettors into pushing the total from 44.5 to 46.5 as of late Wednesday. A high-scoring game likely wouldn't favor the Bills, whose games have averaged 33.5 points in ATS wins and 44.7 points in ATS losses.
New Orleans Saints (-7, 49) at Atlanta Falcons
The Thanksgiving prime-time game this year is a rematch from three weeks ago when Atlanta pulled off a stunning road upset as a 13.5-point underdog. This line suggests oddsmakers view these teams similarly to then, adjusting for home field. However, bettors aren't expecting a repeat performance from the upstart Falcons.
The Saints are bringing in three times as much money as Atlanta in straight bets and five times as much in parlays, with even higher margins in ticket count. Bettors are also teasing the Saints and Cowboys as public-friendly 7-point favorites, and they're even biting on the moneyline at -320.
"I think it's going to continue to trend this way," Rood said. "We're going to need the Falcons when it's all said and done to play inside a touchdown."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.