NFL Week 11 action report: Sharps all-in on Falcons
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The NFL season is entering Week 11 with some big matchups on the slate. Where is the sharp money going? Which lines are moving the most? We're tracking the games that are drawing the most interest from bettors.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 11 schedule.
All lines courtesy of theScore Bet.
Dallas Cowboys (-7, 47) at Detroit Lions
This game was off the board until news broke that Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford would miss his second straight contest with a back injury. Bettors were quick to back the Cowboys, and Rood expects that to continue until kickoff.
"Everything is Cowboys," Rood said. "I would imagine we're gonna need the Lions there."
Some of the early numbers in the market favored Dallas by four or five points ahead of the Stafford news, which pushed most books to -7. Road favorites of seven points or more have gone 8-4-1 against the spread this year, including a 2-0 record for the Cowboys.
Lions quarterback Jeff Driskel is 4-2 ATS in his career as a starter but just 1-5 straight up, with a loss ATS and SU last week against Chicago.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4.5, 49.5)
The public's been all over the Panthers this week as big home favorites, especially in parlay activity, but sharps are all-in on the Falcons as live road 'dogs.
A week after Atlanta downed New Orleans as a sizable underdog, bettors bought the Dirty Birds down from +7 all the way to +4.5 as of Saturday afternoon. Rood hadn't expected a big movement on Friday, so this game could creep back up depending on Sunday's early activity.
"It could be one of those ones where the sharps take the Falcons and keep you at a depressed number, even with what the public is doing on this game," he said.
New Orleans Saints (-6, 50.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Speaking of New Orleans, the Saints are having no trouble earning the confidence of bettors a week after stumbling versus Atlanta.
Drew Brees and Co. have seen a 4-to-1 ticket-count advantage and a whopping 20-to-1 edge in money over the Buccaneers, who haven't won ATS since Week 4. The Saints opened at -5, but the onslaught of money on the road favorites pushed the line to -6, and Rood said he expects it'll get to at least -6.5 by kickoff.
"That's our heaviest wagered-on game right now," Rood said Friday. "That's gonna be a big game in the morning for us."
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, 45)
It was only two weeks ago when Kyler Murray and the frisky Cardinals nearly toppled an (at the time) undefeated San Francisco team in Arizona. This game will be on the Niners' home turf, but bettors are buying another potential upset.
"We've got a little money going against San Francisco early," Rood said. "Maybe everybody thinks that they got exposed a little bit (in the Week 10 loss to Seattle)."
The early returns have favored the Cardinals with a 4-to-1 ticket-count advantage and a small edge in money, which pushed the Niners down from -11.5 to -10.5 as of Saturday. Some books opened with San Fran as high as -14, but the public is pretty overwhelmingly in support of Arizona.
"Eleven is a big number in the NFL," Rood said of the opening line. "The Cardinals have been scrappy. They've covered a couple big numbers, but they've also been blown out."
Indeed, the Cardinals have covered five of their last six games and are 7-3 ATS overall. But in those three ATS losses, they failed to cover by a combined 41.5 points.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.