Sunday Night Football betting preview: Eagles at Cowboys
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Few matchups, if any, epitomize Sunday Night Football as well as when the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles face off. And this year, it's a game neither can afford to lose.
The Cowboys looked like NFC contenders after trouncing their first three opponents, but three straight losses have their once-touted offense searching for an identity. Conversely, the Eagles looked to be finding their stride before last week's blowout loss in Minnesota forced them back to the drawing board.
Here's everything you need to know about Sunday's prime-time matchup from a betting perspective.
Line movement
The Cowboys opened as 3-point favorites, but bettors hopped on the Eagles to push the line down to -2.5, where it sits at theScore Bet in New Jersey as of Sunday morning. The total has also been nudged from 48.5 to 49.
Betting trends
Neither team has impressed against the spread, but the Cowboys have been especially costly as of late, dropping three consecutive games ATS despite giving points in each. Since 2015, favorites that have dropped three straight as chalk are 3-16-1 ATS (15.8%) - suggesting oddsmakers and bettors just won't quit on teams that consistently underwhelm.
When oddsmakers value two division rivals this closely, take the points. Short road 'dogs in a divisional matchup are 34-22-4 ATS (60.7%) since 2015 and 20-10-3 ATS (66.7%) since 2017. In the NFC East, short road 'dogs are 15-10 ATS (60%) in their last 25 games, including a 5-2 record for Philly in that spot.
The coaching edge also favors Philadelphia in a game this close. Cowboys coach Jason Garrett is 7-13-3 ATS (35%) as a short favorite (three points or less), while Eagles coach Doug Pederson is 6-4 ATS (60%) as a short 'dog with four wins in his last five.
In this decade of their rivalry, neither team has won or covered more than three straight times. Dallas has won three straight ATS / SU over Philly entering Sunday.
The X-factor
In four career games versus the Eagles, Ezekiel Elliott has gashed their defense for 115.8 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. But he could struggle this year against Philadelphia's run defense, which is ranked second by DVOA - and if he does, so too could Dallas' offense.
When Elliott rushes for at least 70 yards, the Cowboys are 25-11-1 ATS. When he doesn't? They're 2-7 ATS. Teams that are winning often rush more - but consider that Dallas is 24-13-1 ATS when he averages 3.6 yards per carry and 3-5 ATS when he falls below that number.
The Eagles have held five of their six opponents below 3.6 yards per carry and haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Elliott a year ago. Philadelphia's secondary is banged up, but so are tackle Tyron Smith and receiver Amari Cooper, and both are critical to Dallas' passing success.
Pick
On the surface, two 3-3 divisional rivals facing off favors the home team. Yet the Eagles are likely better, as evidenced by wins over the Packers and Jets. Dallas' best win came in Week 1 versus Eli Manning and the Giants.
If the Cowboys can get their run game going, Dak Prescott could have a big day. Recent history suggests they'll struggle to do so, however, setting Philadelphia up for a huge divisional victory on the road instead.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.