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I can understand wanting to take the over here. It's a small number and the Lions should be in passing situations while playing from behind. But the more I dig in, the more I think Stafford will struggle on Monday.
For starters, Stafford isn't the gunslinger he once was. The Lions have featured a more run-heavy offense this season, as the veteran quarterback has attempted more than 34 passes just once. He's also only produced more than 22 completions in one game. On Monday, he'll get a Green Bay defense that ranks No. 5 in opponent completion rate (58.2%) and has allowed fewer than 21 completions per game.
Graham was a player I targeted last week when Davante Adams was sidelined, and the star receiver has also been ruled out for Week 7. Meanwhile, Detroit's defense gave up just three catches for 29 yards to tight ends over the first two games, but it allowed 13 combined catches for 194 yards to Philadelphia's Zach Ertz and Kansas City's Travis Kelce over the past two. Graham isn't in their class, but he's competent enough to make plays in an offense that's missing its top wideout.
A Packers defense that didn't allow more than 16 points in any of the first three games has come back down to earth a bit. Green Bay gave up 34 at home to the Eagles and then 24 to the Cowboys last week. And in three of the last four contests, the Packers' secondary allowed the opposing No. 1 wide receiver to find the end zone. Dallas' Amari Cooper went off for 11 catches, 226 yards and a score in Week 5, Philadelphia's Alshon Jeffery posted three catches for 38 yards and a touchdown in Week 4, and Minnesota's Stefon Diggs hauled in a touchdown grab in Week 3.
Golladay has been Stafford's favorite option by a mile this season, as he's seen 12 more targets than any other Lion to date.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.