Super Bowl odds update: Chiefs down, Colts up after Week 5 upset
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A week ago, a glut of 2-2 teams complicated the middle of the Super Bowl oddsboard outside of the then-undefeated New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs. Just a week later, we're starting to see some separation at the top, while preseason favorites are showing cracks in the veneer.
Here are the updated Super Bowl odds after five weeks, with a look at a few of the biggest movers and potential values:
| TEAM | ODDS (10/7) | ODDS (9/28) |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 9-5 | 5-2 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-1 | 7-2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8-1 | 12-1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 14-1 | 16-1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 16-1 | 16-1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 16-1 | 10-1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 16-1 | 20-1 |
| Chicago Bears | 20-1 | 14-1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 20-1 | 16-1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 30-1 | 60-1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 35-1 | 40-1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Houston Texans | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 50-1 | 40-1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 60-1 | 80-1 |
| Detroit Lions | 60-1 | 80-1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 60-1 | 100-1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Oakland Raiders | 200-1 | 200-1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 200-1 | 100-1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 200-1 | 100-1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 300-1 | 200-1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 300-1 | 100-1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 500-1 | 2000-1 |
| Denver Broncos | 500-1 | 1000-1 |
| New York Giants | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| New York Jets | 2000-1 | 1000-1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5000-1 | 1000-1 |
| Washington Redskins | 10000-1 | 5000-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 50000-1 | 50000-1 |
Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)
Previous odds: 7-2
So this team isn't unassailable, after all. Kansas City's biggest weakness became its undoing Sunday night when the Colts ran through a thin Chiefs defense for 180 yards and 12 first downs during a bludgeoning 19-13 win in Arrowhead Stadium. Patrick Mahomes didn't look like himself, either, after aggravating his left ankle injury.
Still, this could be a fantastic time to buy. The Chiefs looked like juggernauts through four weeks, beating three teams with winning records and a Jaguars club that still had Nick Foles and Jalen Ramsey. Kansas City's schedule tightens in the coming weeks, but its toughest opponents are at home until a showdown with New England in December. Buy Chiefs stock before then.
New Orleans Saints (8-1)
Previous odds: 12-1
The Saints have been flirting with being the cream of the NFC all season, and three straight wins without Drew Brees has finally pushed them back to the front of the pack. Teddy Bridgewater's career day in Sunday's win over Tampa Bay paired nicely with an emerging defense, which coincides with Marshon Lattimore's shift from early-season liability to reliable shutdown corner.
New Orleans marched along Sunday even without a strong showing from Alvin Kamara, who could be the difference in a potential playoff matchup with Green Bay or Dallas. Once Brees comes back, it's hard to find a real fault in this year's iteration of the Saints - though it's a little too late to get great value, either.
Los Angeles Rams (20-1)
Previous odds: 16-1
New Orleans last lost to Los Angeles, which has since dropped two of three after Thursday's one-point defeat in Seattle and Week 4's embarrassing showing against Tampa Bay.
The ingredients are there for this team, but Jared Goff hasn't broken out of his late-2018 slump and the defense has been trending downward since beating up on a Brees-less Saints team. The contrarian bettor may find value at 20-1, which could very well be the longest we see the Rams' odds all year. This week's divisional test vs. San Francisco should be telling.
Carolina Panthers (30-1)
Previous odds: 60-1
The Panthers saw arguably the most dramatic movement of the week, forcing oddsmakers to half their futures price after another stellar day from MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey. Fill-in quarterback Kyle Allen hasn't looked the same since his impressive season debut in Arizona, but McCaffrey and an opportunistic defense have provided all the scoring that Carolina needs.
Is it enough to actually win the Super Bowl? If Cam Newton comes back healthy (which is a big if), we've already seen that recipe reach the title game, and McCaffrey is playing infinitely better than any skill position player on that 2015 team. The Saints are a safer bet in the division, but the Panthers have more value.
Indianapolis Colts (60-1)
Previous odds: 100-1
What is the deal with this Colts team? One week, they're getting rocked by the Raiders; the next, they're punking the Chiefs in Arrowhead. The real version of Indy likely lies somewhere in the middle, with injuries swinging the pendulum in any given week.
The Colts had Marlon Mack on Sunday, and that's really all that mattered, but Jacoby Brissett has proven competent enough when top target T.Y. Hilton is healthy. Indy's banged-up defense cracked the code Sunday on Mahomes, which is as tough of a test as it'll face all year. This team's price should be more like 40-1, so grab the value ahead of an easier stretch on the schedule.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.