A year removed from delighting spread bettors, the Chicago Bears enter Monday as shaky road favorites against a Washington Redskins team fresh off losses that were worse than the box scores may suggest.
Chicago bettors have had to bear a miserable start from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, whose 28.2 QBR is the second-worst of any quarterback suiting up this weekend. He could find some daylight against the Redskins' defense, which was torched by Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott in subsequent weeks.
Here's everything you need to know about the game from a betting perspective:
The Bears opened between -5 and -5.5 but were quickly bet down to -4.5 road favorites. Sharp action has pushed the line down to -4 despite nearly 60% of the public taking the Bears as of Sunday, per Sports Insights. The total has ticked down from 42.5 to 41 with a majority of bets on the under.
Teams coming off 0-2 starts have been cash cows of late, with a 26-14 record against the spread (65%) since 2014 and 12-4 ATS (75%) the past two years. Of the nine 0-2 teams this year, only the Redskins are getting more than three points at home - a spot that has produced a 7-1 ATS run for 0-2 sides since 2012.
The biggest selling point is betting against Trubisky, who's mustered just 348 passing yards with no touchdowns and an interception through a pair of games. Road favorites with fewer than 350 passing yards in their past two games combined are 3-6 ATS, with an 8-1 run to the under.
One trend is troubling for Redskins backers, though. Home underdogs of at least four points have lost 13 straight ATS, including two losses by Washington alone. The under has gone 9-4 during that run and 54-25-3 (68.4%) since 2017.
Playing the under on a low total may feel like a sucker public play, but it's hard to overstate how bad these offenses could be on Monday.
The Bears rank last in the league in Pro Football Focus' offense grades - worse than the lowly Dolphins - with bottom-four grades in run and pass defense. The Redskins' below-average attack is bolstered by a decent run game, though Chicago's stout run defense has been top-five through two weeks.
The side looks like a classic stay away. The market has underrated 0-2 teams in recent years, and the Bears are classic fade candidates as fraudulent favorites. That said, Washington is still among the league's least talented teams with a disappointing defense and weapon-light offense.
The only play on this game looks to be the under. Even with how poorly the Redskins' defense has been through two weeks, Trubisky would need to take a massive step to triple his team's touchdown total in one game - which is likely what over bettors would need given Washington's one-dimensional attack.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.