NFL best bets for Week 1
Every Friday during the NFL season, theScore's sports betting writers will release their best bets for the week. Each member has been given an imaginary $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the season. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.
Odds courtesy of theScoreBet.
Thomas Casale (0-0, $1,000)
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Line: Ravens -7
I'm riding with the public on the most popular bet of Week 1. I got this number early at 4.5 but advise betting it up to a touchdown. While it's only the first week and anything can happen, we know the Dolphins will be bad in 2019. The thing that sticks out to me is that the Ravens' defense feasts on below-average quarterbacks. Last season, Baltimore went 5-1 versus bottom-15 passing offenses, outscoring those opponents 176-89. Sorry, but Ryan Fitzpatrick qualifies as a below-average quarterback.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense will be much better this season than some are predicting. Look for him to get off to a fast start against an undermanned Miami unit. And if you're worried about the public being on Baltimore, remember the Ravens were the most popular pick last year in Week 1 and blew out the Bills by a score of 47-3.
Pick: Ravens -7 ($50)
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Chargers -7
Andrew Luck is a great player and the Colts certainly aren't better without him. Having said that, Jacoby Brissett is a quality quarterback in his own right, and the Colts have quietly put together one of the most talented rosters in the AFC over the last two years. Brissett went 4-12 as a starter in 2017 when he filled in for an injured Luck, but he was traded to the Colts just one week before the season started. Indy now provides him with a much better offensive line and is stronger on defense, too.
After Luck announced his retirement, the line for this game moved from Chargers -3 to -7. I grabbed it at seven and so did sharp betters because it moved a half-point off that important number of a touchdown at some books, though you can still get the Colts +7 at theScoreBet in New Jersey.
Indianapolis won't have Luck, but the Chargers are playing without stud safety Derwin James and starting running back Melvin Gordon. The Colts are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 openers, yet I'm taking Indy to buck the trend on Sunday and cover the seven points.
Pick: Colts +7 ($50)
Alex Kolodziej (0-0, $1,000)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Total: 41
I hit this one back in the summer at 38.5 and would play up to 41. On paper, this game doesn't look like it'll be fun, but don't automatically assume these two teams are going to slug it out in a defensive battle. Both are drastically different than they were last year, especially on offense where there are actual playmakers this season. This total was my biggest disagreement at the opening number, and I'd still play it now.
Pick: Over 41 ($35)
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
Total: 44
This comes down to a belief that one team - Seattle - can do whatever it wants offensively, while its pass-happy opponent - Cincinnati - has to rack up yards through the air to keep up. I hit this one before the A.J. Green injury and would have liked another offensive weapon for a road team in hostile territory, but there’s enough still intact for the Bengals to help get this game over the total.
Pick: Over 44 ($30)
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 50
There are certain teams that go through transitions and it generally takes a while for the market to catch up, but I feel like we're going to get another year of Tampa Bay shootouts. The defense didn't do much to upgrade a unit that was weak last season and new head coach Bruce Arians is known for getting the most out of his offense. This should be a wide-open, fast-paced game with a ton of throwing, and I'll pay for the defenses to beat me here.
Pick: Over 50 ($30)
C Jackson Cowart (0-0, $1,000)
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Line: Broncos -1.5
When this game opened in the summer, I loved the Broncos as 2.5-point 'dogs. I loved them at +1 earlier this week; I loved them at pick 'em; I love them at -1.5. If Antonio Brown is indeed suspended for this contest, I love Denver at anything short of -3.
Look, the Broncos are the better team in every facet of the game - especially if Brown is out - and new head coach Vic Fangio was an ATS hero when he coached up the Bears' defense. Give me the Broncos all day in this matchup, and hit the Raiders' team total under while you're at it.
Pick: Broncos -1.5 ($75)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 47.5
The Cardinals' offense struggled during the preseason and that could continue into Week 1. Arizona had the worst pass-blocking line in the league last year and opens with both a new coach and quarterback against a nasty Lions defensive front. The Cards' team total under is the golden play here, but the game should fall short of 47, too, thanks to Detroit's commitment to the run game.
Pick: Under 47.5 ($35)
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -4
This is what they call a "prove it" game to open the season. Last year's disappointing campaign still resulted in a winning record for the Vikings despite crippling injuries along the offensive line, which the team helped remedy in the first round of this year's draft. Don't forget, too, that Minnesota is two years removed from winning 13 games and is now armed with a better quarterback and better skill position players around him.
I'm not sold on the idea that all of Atlanta's defensive woes in 2018 were injury-related, and regardless of Julio Jones' status on Sunday, Minnesota's defense has enough elite talent on all three levels to make it hard on the Falcons' attack. If the Vikings are real Super Bowl contenders - and I'm convinced they are - this is a game they win handily.
Pick: Vikings -4 ($15)
Alex Moretto (0-0, $1,000)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Chiefs -4
It's the Chris Conley revenge game. Everyone and their mother is on Kansas City this week, but the Jags are on the precipice of what could be a special season. Offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and quarterback Nick Foles will give this team an above-average offense for the first time in years to go along with one of the NFL's best defenses. People are quick to dismiss the guys catching the ball in Jacksonville, but Conley can fly and DeFilippo called Dede Westbrook the best route-runner he's ever seen. This line has dropped since opening Chiefs -5, despite more bettors backing Kansas City.
Patrick Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown pass in only one game last year, and it was against Jacksonville He did throw two interceptions, though. Who knows, maybe I'm just drinking the Kool-Aid, but I love the Jags this week.
Picks: Jaguars +4 ($40), Jaguars ML ($10 to win $17)
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -9.5
Cincinnati was 4-1 last season before being struck down by the injury bug. New head coach Zac Taylor has implemented a "take what you can get" offense, moving up the field in small chunks, which should provide for plenty of success against a Seattle defense that likes to keep everything in front of it. On the other side, Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is going to have Seattle running early and often - hardly the recipe for a blowout win.
Seattle has covered just one of its last seven games in September and is in for a tougher test than most expect at CenturyLink Field. Take the points with the biggest underdog in Week 1.
Pick: Bengals +9.5 ($50)