Ranking NFL divisions by degree of difficulty
The landscape of the NFL has shifted in recent years.
The Green Bay Packers have missed the playoffs the last two seasons, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are well into their 40s, and the Cleveland Browns are expected to be good.
With all this said, it's time to re-evaluate each division and determine which is the best in football, from easiest to win to hardest.
8. AFC East
Good luck ripping the AFC East out of the cold clutch of the New England Patriots.
The Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets each finished below .500 last season and neither team is expected to win more than seven games this coming campaign, according to Vegas odds.
Even with all of the offseason departures, the Patriots are expected to win their record 11th straight division title. Long may they reign.
7. NFC East
The NFC East falls off a cliff after the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
While the Eagles and Cowboys are arguably two of the league's best, there's no debating the rebuilding Washington Redskins and New York Giants are far from the mountaintop.
The division remains a favorite for media and the NFL's broadcast partners, but at this point, it's almost based purely on geography and tradition. The Eagles and Cowboys will each play a league-high 10 prime-time games in 2019, including a head-to-head matchup on Sunday Night Football. Even the Giants received two Monday Night Football dates, against - you guessed it - the Eagles and Cowboys.
The head-to-head battles are always thrilling, but entering 2019, the NFC East isn't the juggernaut it once was.
6. AFC North
The AFC North has undergone perhaps the biggest makeover. Once ruled by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, the perennial doormat Cleveland Browns are now the favorite to win the division.
The Steelers lost perhaps their two most talented players in Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, and the Ravens lost key contributors on the defensive side via free agency. The division is up for the taking.
The Browns recognized this new reality and, after years of building, identified this as the time to strike, trading for superstar receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and pass-rusher Olivier Vernon a year after adding Jarvis Landry and draft picks Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb.
The Cincinnati Bengals, who haven't won a playoff game since 1990, are moving forward with a first-year head coach and are expected to finish in the basement for the second straight year.
While the Steelers and Ravens should still challenge for division supremacy, the Browns are now considered the team to beat.
5. AFC South
If this were a ranking of the most competitive divisions in football, the AFC South would finish near the top. Every team has reason to believe they can win the division this year.
The Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans all finished above .500 last season; The Jacksonville Jaguars own a top-five defense and added Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles.
But for all the on-field battles over the years, none of the teams have been able to pull away from the pack. Here are the cumulative standings over the past three seasons:
| Team | Record |
|---|---|
| Titans | 27-21 |
| Texans | 24-24 |
| Colts | 22-26 |
| Jaguars | 18-30 |
Each team has made the playoffs in that period, but none has gone further than the Jaguars did when they reached the AFC title game in 2017.
Going into 2019, it would come as no surprise if either the Colts, Texans, or Jaguars made it as far as the Super Bowl. But as a whole, the AFC South has proven to be an average division.
4. NFC North
The black and blue division has taken its lumps of late, but it could realistically produce three playoff teams this season.
The Chicago Bears' impressive one-year turnaround from worst to first has them favored to repeat as division champions; The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers both finished on the outside of the playoff picture last year, but are poised to return to the fold after an active offseason.
The Bears, Packers, and Vikings are three of the top seven teams favored by Vegas to make the NFC playoffs.
Bringing down the group is the Detroit Lions, who were picked by USA Today to finish tied for last in the NFC. Only the Arizona Cardinals have longer odds to win the conference.
3. NFC West
The league's west divisions feature some of the most talented teams in football. The NFC West is headlined by the defending conference champion Los Angeles Rams, who swept all of their division matchups last year. This season, that should prove to be a tougher task.
The Seattle Seahawks always play the Rams tough - their two tilts were decided by a combined seven points last season. No team has done a better job at rebuilding on the fly than the Seahawks, who continuously change the parts surrounding star quarterback Russell Wilson with a degree of success.
With a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo, the San Francisco 49ers are again anticipated to make the leap into contention this season. After another year of spending and shrewd decision-making by the brain trust of John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan, the Niners are a popular pick to shake up the NFC.
And finally, there's the Cardinals. Despite their poor record from a year ago, Arizona now fields a roster of proven vets and talented youngsters. The combination of Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray could take the league by storm.
2. NFC South
The NFC South is generally regarded as the NFL's most difficult division to win, with the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers perennial contenders for conference supremacy. All three teams had 10-plus wins and made the playoffs in 2017, but 2018 was a disappointment for the latter two.
Both of those clubs are anticipated to bounce back this season, but the Saints enter the year as co-favorites (with the Rams) to win the NFC. After two consecutive years of playoff heartbreak, this could be the year New Orleans finally gets over the hump.
Since 2010, Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans have each won the division three times. The NFC South is known for its frequency in which the division crown changes hands.
This decade, the division has been brought down by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs haven't reached the postseason since 2007 and the second-longest playoff drought in the NFL is expected to continue into 2019 despite the hire of head coach Bruce Arians.
1. AFC West
With two legitimate Super Bowl contenders, the AFC West is king.
No two teams are garnering as much championship buzz entering the season as the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. The two 12-win teams of a year ago are expected to be as good, if not better than they were in 2018.
Defending NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes comes back from his absurd 50-touchdown season with Tyreek Hill available after avoiding league suspension. The Chiefs' defense should be better than the 31st-ranked unit last year with the additions of Tyrann Mathieu, Frank Clark, Emmanuel Ogbah, Alex Okafor, and Bashaud Breeland.
The Chargers are a popular pick to reach Super Bowl LIV, though the Chiefs are the current betting favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy.
The Bolts nearly topped their division rivals for the AFC West crown in 2018 after a thrilling last-minute win over the Chiefs in Week 15. The Chargers own, from top to bottom, perhaps the most talented roster in the league, but the caveat is the availability of Pro Bowl running back Melvin Gordon, who's holding out for a contract extension.
Add in the Denver Broncos with a proven commodity at quarterback in Joe Flacco to go with that defense and the Oakland Raiders rebuilding their roster with star receiver Antonio Brown, and the AFC West is the must-watch division of 2019.