NFL MVP odds, best bets, and value picks
What a difference a year makes.
Last season, Patrick Mahomes' odds to win NFL MVP honors opened at 100-1. After throwing for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns in his first season as a starter, the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback and reigning MVP opened as a 4-1 favorite to repeat at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
However, bettors aren't jumping all over him like they did a year ago. Sharp money came in on him throughout the summer of 2018, shortening his odds to 30-1 at many sportsbooks by the start of the season.
Sharp bettors are eyeing another young quarterback to win the 2019 award. The Bears' Mitchell Trubisky opened at a distant 200-1 but was quickly bet down to 50-1. SuperBook race and sports manager Derek Wilkinson said Trubisky was the only player to see significant money come in on him during the first three days the lines were posted.
There's a reason why quarterbacks dominate the top of the MVP odds board: Betting a non-quarterback to win the award hasn't been a profitable strategy over the last decade.
Since 2000, only four non-quarterbacks (Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Adrian Peterson) have been named NFL MVP. Peterson (2012) is the only non-quarterback to win the award in the last 12 years. A wide receiver hasn't won it since Jerry Rice in 1987. Ezekiel Elliott (60-1), Saquon Barkley (80-1), Alvin Kamara (80-1), and Christian McCaffrey (80-1) are currently the only non-quarterbacks with odds shorter than 100-1.
The complete MVP odds are below:
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 4-1 |
| Andrew Luck | 8-1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8-1 |
| Carson Wentz | 10-1 |
| Drew Brees | 10-1 |
| Tom Brady | 12-1 |
| Philip Rivers | 14-1 |
| Russell Wilson | 14-1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25-1 |
| Matt Ryan | 25-1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 25-1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 50-1 |
| Jared Goff | 60-1 |
| Cam Newton | 60-1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 60-1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 60-1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 80-1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 80-1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 80-1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 80-1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 80-1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 80-1 |
| Dak Prescott | 100-1 |
Best Bets
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts (8-1)
I'm all in the Colts this year. I have future bets on them to win the AFC South, AFC, and Super Bowl. I expect Indianapolis to be the Patriots' biggest threat in the AFC, and if I'm right, Luck will be a serious contender to win his first MVP award.
The only downside is that their odds have lost some value. Indianapolis opened 20-1 to win the Super Bowl and is down to 10-1 at the SuperBook. The same holds true with Luck. I got him at 12-1 to win the MVP when his odds first came out in late May, but the Westgate opened him as the second favorite at 8-1, along with Aaron Rodgers.
However, Luck still remains my favorite bet to win MVP. Mahomes overshadowed him, but Luck is coming off a year where he threw for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns while leading the Colts to a playoff berth. With more weapons in receivers Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell, Luck is primed for another big season leading a team that's ready to make a Super Bowl run.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks (14-1)
Wilson didn't put up monster stats last year like Mahomes and Luck but he quietly had one of his best NFL seasons, throwing for 3,448 yards, 35 touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions. What's even more impressive is that he put up those numbers on just 427 pass attempts. Wilson threw the ball 553 and 546 times the two prior seasons with fewer touchdowns and more interceptions.
The reason Wilson attempted over 100 fewer passes is Seattle led the NFL in rushing attempts. The Seahawks hired Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator and he's never met a running play he didn't like. To Schottenheimer's credit, though, Wilson became a more efficient passer with the help of an improved ground game.
Wilson gets the most out of his supporting cast and led a young Seattle team to the postseason in 2018. If the passing game takes a small step forward in 2019, Wilson will be right in the MVP hunt.
Value Picks
Jared Goff, QB, Rams (60-1)
Goff is the best value on the board at 60-1. I was surprised to see him open at that number, since I figured he would come in around 30-1 after throwing for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns last year.
This number feels like it was based on the last time we saw Goff. He was in the MVP conversation for much of last season but struggled mightily in the Super Bowl, completing just 50 percent of his passes. While Goff flopped on the biggest stage, it's hard to ignore the numbers he's put up in the two years since Sean McVay took over the Rams' offense: 8,492 yards and 60 touchdowns.
Some will argue Goff is a product of McVay's system, but that's irrelevant for betting purposes. The system works, and that puts Goff in line for another highly productive season. Grab this number while it's hot because Goff's odds won't stay here for long.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans (60-1)
Like Goff, Watson is one of the best value bets at 60-1. Last year, Watson was 15-1 to win the MVP. He wasn't in the running, but he did put up 4,716 total yards and 31 touchdowns. While it seems like an over-adjustment to open Watson at 60-1, oddsmakers don't appear to be high on the Texans this season.
Houston is 15-1 to win the AFC, putting it behind the Chiefs, Patriots, Colts, Browns, Chargers, and Steelers. Oddsmakers were much higher on the Texans heading into last season when Houston had the third-shortest odds to win the AFC at 8-1.
I'm not a big fan of Bill O'Brien (who is?) but the bottom line is that the Texans went 11-5 in 2018 and O'Brien has won the AFC South three times in five years. With receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Keke Coutee, Houston will have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL. The offensive line is still an issue, but Watson's value is too good to pass up at 60-1.