Top 5 betting plays for Week 14 of the NFL season
Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport / Getty

After uncovering some betting tips and analyzing every team total in Week 14, here are our five best betting plays for the upcoming slate.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wager: Saints' team total over 33.5 and the over 54.5

If you're expecting a bounce-back game from the Saints' offense following last week's 13-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, there's a good chance it'll happen.

This is the ideal time to buy quarterback Drew Brees, who went 18-for-28 through the air with just 127 yards last week. Since 2008, Brees has finished with a QBR worse than 80.0 35 times; in the following game, the Saints are scoring an average of 33.2 points per game. In the lone situation this season, Brees and the offense hung 43 on the Washington Redskins.

Sunday's opponent will be the Buccaneers, who have stripped their tag as the league's worst scoring defense after allowing just 26 combined points over the previous two games. Looking back at last week's success in a 24-17 win over the Carolina Panthers, the Bucs used their pass rush to force Cam Newton into four interceptions. Brees is the least-sacked qualified passer in the NFL, so we don't think he'll be pressured too often in the pocket in what should be a rebound spot for the NFL's No. 3 scoring offense.

The Buccaneers love scoring points when trailing and the No. 1 pass offense at home should find enough success against the Saints' No. 30 pass defense to contribute going over the full-game point total.

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns

Wager: Over 47

Just as we expect Brees to rebound, this is a spot where two quarterbacks can bounce back. Newton is coming off a four-interception game in Tampa Bay while Cleveland's Baker Mayfield threw three in last week's loss to the Houston Texans.

The Panthers have been able to move the ball, but it's the turnovers deep into opponent territory that has the unit leaving points on the field. It's also a favorable matchup for the Browns, who face a Carolina defense allowing a 100.4 opponent passer rating on the road this season, which ranks No. 25 in the NFL.

Extra Points

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Recommended Pick: Under 38.5

When the Jets travel to take on the Bills, it'll be a clash between two of the worst offenses in football. New York and Buffalo sailed past the total of 38 four weeks ago when the Bills rolled to 41-10 victory behind backup veteran quarterback Matt Barkley. It'll likely be the two rookies' turn to duel this time around, as the Jets are expecting to trot out Sam Darnold, who has missed the previous three games with an injury.

Sunday figures to be a terrible matchup for the Jets' offense, who go up against a secondary that has allowed an average of 133.5 passing yards and is holding opposing quarterbacks to a 36.5 QBR over the previous four games. Jets starting running back Isaiah Crowell and wide receivers Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson should be good to go for Sunday, but come in nursing respective injuries.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen's improvement - especially with his legs - over the last few weeks feels like an overreaction from the public, considering he had nowhere to go but up following a shaky start to his career. Buffalo's skill corps is still light on playmakers and they shuffled around the receivers group by cutting ties with Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes earlier this week. In Round 2 between these two offensively-challenged AFC East clubs, we feel a low-scoring game is in the works.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

Recommended Pick: Redskins +3.5

It took us until the last minute to talk ourselves into recommending the Redskins, but nonetheless, here we are. This has more to do with fading the Giants than playing on Mark Sanchez and a beleaguered Redskins team.

Following a five-game losing streak, the G-Men have three wins over the previous four with the only blemish coming against the Philadelphia Eagles, a narrow three-point loss. But have the Giants really turned it around? They needed a game-winning touchdown drive to win against the Nick Mullens-led San Francisco 49ers, only beat the Buccaneers at home by a field goal, and came out victorious in overtime against Chase Daniel and the Chicago Bears last weekend in East Rutherford.

Although the offensive success behind Sanchez is an unknown, we don't feel New York should be giving more than a field goal on the road to Washington, backup quarterback under center or not.

Top plays: 24-12-2 (66.7 percent)

Overall record: 39-23-1 (63 percent)

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

Top 5 betting plays for Week 14 of the NFL season
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