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Week 6 NFL Betting Diary: R.I.P. to my over streak

theScore

Each week, theScore's betting writer, Alex Kolodziej, will share a running diary of his Sunday experiences. Here's his third edition (all times PT):

6:00 a.m.: I want winners, no questions asked. I'm going for six straight NFL winning weeks. I'm sitting on my couch in a suit, tie, and slacks. This is a Sunday business trip to Profit Land, USA.

9:45 a.m.: I should've taken Chargers-Browns over at 44.5 earlier in the week when the forecast called for potential gusts. Think about this: I spent three days triggered by mother nature. She rattled me, and I was refreshing "Cleveland weather" on Google every 12 minutes to get updates on the latest wind patterns. I didn't pounce on the number and wound up with 46. I also have Bills-Texans over 41 (puke), the Falcons -3 over the Bucs (is this the worst line in NFL history?), and the Patriots -3.5 against the Chiefs. The only other play on the card was Colts-Jets under 45.5, but I rarely play an under if it isn't one of my top plays.

To review then, here are my plays today:

  • Chargers-Browns OVER 46
  • Bills-Texans OVER 41
  • Falcons -3
  • Patriots -3.5

10:08 a.m.: Atlanta -3 is likely not the worst line in NFL history, because the Falcons' defense is absolutely as bad as advertised. The Buccaneers went right down the field for a touchdown on their first drive. Fire Atlanta to Saturn.

Jason Miller / Getty Images Sport / Getty

10:20 a.m.: How could I forget? The Bucs' defense is bad too! Matt Ryan and the Falcons respond immediately to make it 7-6.

10:23 a.m.: The Texans are in the red zone. They should just kick the field goal now and save time on the clock - that's how bad they've been this season inside the 20.

10:24 a.m.: I TAKE IT BACK. DeAndre Hopkins hauls in an 18-yard touchdown reception and it's 7-0 Houston with some time left in the first quarter. Someone chisel a Bill O'Brien statue outside NRG Stadium.

10:34 a.m.: Baker Mayfield may have tweaked something while running out of bounds. He stayed in the game, but I'm officially dead inside.

10:42 a.m.: Ito Smith - the pride of Southern Miss (shout out to the Golden Eagles) - puts the Falcons up 14-6 with a 14-yard touchdown run.

10:46 a.m.: These over plays look like duds. "RedZone" is 200% less fun to watch on Sundays when you have overs and Scott Hanson doesn't go to your games.

10:48 a.m.: The Browns are in the red zone, and Hanson goes to them. Apparently complaining helps.

10:50 a.m.: Cleveland settles for a field goal. It's 7-3 with 12:50 left in the second quarter. Give me 10 more points this quarter.

10:52 a.m.: The Texans block a punt and kick a field goal. It's 10-0 with 8:33 left in the first half. I knew that game wouldn't be a track meet, but it's not exactly the scoring pace I wanted. Expecting Josh Allen to do things? I should be sitting in the corner of my apartment with a dunce cap on my head. Sad!

10:56 a.m.: The Falcons score their 21st unanswered point midway through the second quarter, and they get the ball after halftime. I hate sitting on big leads when laying chalk, so let's just hope things get weird and Atlanta goes up by 60.

11:08 a.m.: The Chargers cover 89 yards with just two plays and they score. They have some life now and lead 14-3 with more than six minutes remaining in the half.

Bob Levey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

11:11 a.m.: Deshaun Watson throws a pick in the end zone to close out the half. The over in that game is probably an early loss.

11:18 a.m.: Cleveland goes for it on fourth-and-2 inside the red zone and doesn't convert? Leave it to Hue Jackson to not kick a field goal there. The Browns are moving the ball fine, but they're stalling on virtually every possession.

11:21 a.m.: Buccaneers touchdown, and it's 21-13.

11:24 a.m.: I've never seen this before: The Chargers had an obvious false start, but the refs miss it and L.A. scores. Uh, I'll take it? It's 21-3 before the half.

11:30 a.m.: The Falcons tack on a crucial field goal to end the half, making it 24-13.

11:32 a.m.: The Browns drive down the field with less than a minute left in the half to add a field goal. That's 27 first-half points, and it probably should be 30. Thanks, Hue!

11:36 a.m.: The Bills scored points! Except it's a field goal. It's 10-3 with 10:12 left in the third quarter. Four touchdowns to push? I've seen weirder things happen.

11:50 a.m.: Hanson flips to the Bills-Texans game and I thought something happened. Then he backs out and says "well, we thought the Bills were in plus territory, but they're backed up deep in their own end." Thanks, Scott. My streak on over bets is done, but it was a damn good run at 9-0.

  • Chargers-Browns OVER 46
  • Bills-Texans OVER 41
  • Falcons -3
  • Patriots -3.5

11:52 a.m.: The Buccaneers turn it over in the end zone. That's clutch, and now I need Matt Ryan to drive the length of the field and score so I can stop breathing into a paper bag.

11:56 a.m.: The Chargers go right downfield with their first possession of the second half. It's 28-6, so I need only two more touchdowns to get this one home.

12:08 p.m.: The Buccaneers have the ball in plus territory every time the box scores on "RedZone" show up. Atlanta holds them to a field goal this time, though, and it's 24-16. I desperately need the Falcons to score.

Gregory Shamus / Getty Images Sport / Getty

12:18 p.m.: Touchdown Chargers!. Sheesh, thanks for coming out, Cleveland. It won't show up in the box score, but a Browns touchdown would be fantastic for the over. Give me all the consolation prizes for Hue and Co.

12:20 p.m: Oh look, the Buccaneers have the ball again. Unbelievable.

12:26 p.m.: The Bucs score a touchdown, but they don't convert on the two-point attempt. The Falcons aren't covering anymore, with the score 24-22 early in the fourth quarter.

12:39 p.m.: The Falcons drive right down the field to make it a two-score game, 31-22. Where was this all day? Also, I would have preferred a field goal, because you know the Falcons will play a prevent defense and let Tampa Bay do whatever it wants.

12:42 p.m.: The Chargers left the backdoor open! The Browns run a third-and-goal fade - a route that had only a 33 percent success rate in 2017, according to Football Outsiders - and they score to go over the total.

  • Chargers/Browns OVER 46
  • Bills/Texans OVER 41
  • Falcons -3
  • Patriots -3.5

12:52 p.m.: The gambling gods are a fickle bunch. The Buccaneers' backdoor touchdown blows the cover, and it's 31-29 with under four minutes left. I could have told you that was coming from a mile away.

1:06 p.m.: Wow. The Falcons attempt a 57-yard field goal ... and drill it. It's 34-29 with 1:11 left. Stop playing prevent defense, Atlanta.

1:11 p.m.: Tampa Bay, with one play left at Atlanta's 21-yard line, nearly pulled off a miracle that included two laterals. That was ugly, and I'm currently soaked in perspiration, but I'll take it.

  • Chargers/Browns OVER 46
  • Bills/Texans OVER 41
  • Falcons -3
  • Patriots -3.5

3:28 p.m.: This is my first week without action during the late-afternoon games. How do people watch football without money on it?

Boston Globe / Boston Globe / Getty

5:20 p.m.: I'm so accustomed to betting against the Pats - typically a huge "public" team every weekend - that it feels weird to root for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. I feel somewhat rebellious and powerful, as the luxury of cheering for the dark side is overwhelming. I'm not a fan of the WWE, but I think I've successfully shifted from babyface to heel. Did I do that right?

5:29 p.m.: The Patriots turn the ball over on downs on the Chiefs' 40-yard line to start the game. Believe me when I say this: Betting against Patrick Mahomes will put you in the grave 20 years earlier than expected. I've been in that position a few times already this season. That man will set your life back quicker than any other quarterback in the league, including Aaron Rodgers. I need an industrial-sized bottle of Tums right now.

5:36 p.m.: New England holds Kansas City to a field goal and it feels like I just hit the lottery. There are tears of joy. I'm booking vacations as we speak. Holy crap, the Chiefs' speed is going to smoke these Patriots linebackers over four quarters.

5:45 p.m.: There won't be any defense tonight, as the 59.5 total suggests. This game will be about which team can avoid breaking. The Patriots move the ball well for the second straight possession, but they settle for a field goal to tie the game at three.

5:48 p.m.: Dont'a Hightower picks off Mahomes, and the Patriots are in business. Nobody under the age of 25 comes into Foxboro and unseats TB12!

5:49 p.m.: Sony Michel scores from five yards out and it's 10-3 Patriots. Here comes the track meet.

5:56 p.m.: The Chiefs hit a field goal to make it 10-6. Mahomes has missed three wide-open receivers so far in the first quarter.

6:07 p.m.: Brady connects with Julian Edelman for six and it's 17-6 Patriots. They're doing whatever they want offensively.

6:17 p.m.: New England holds tough and forces another Kansas City field goal. It's 17-9 midway through the second quarter. Similar to the Atlanta game, I'm going to need 30-to-50 unanswered points to feel comfortable because you know the inevitable Chiefs run is looming.

6:30 p.m.: Now it's 24-9 Patriots, and I promise you, I could put up six catches for 74 yards and two touchdowns against this Kansas City defense.

Adam Glanzman / Getty Images Sport / Getty

7:01 p.m.: Shades of 2017 come when Kareem Hunt scores on a 67-yard bomb three plays into the second half.

7:15 p.m.: A 12-play drive ends with a field goal for the Patriots. They're wearing down the Chiefs on the ground.

7:34 p.m.: Here comes the dreaded Chiefs run, because nothing is ever easy when laying points. Brady gets sacked and fumbles, and Kansas City scores a couple plays later on a Tyreek Hill touchdown. They've outscored New England 17-3 in the third quarter. Fantastic.

7:50 p.m.: Another long drive for the Patriots, another field goal. Pats up four early in the fourth.

7:57 p.m.: It's all Chiefs in the second half. A kickoff return to New England's three-yard line turns into a touchdown three plays later. If I'm the Patriots, I just take the final eight-plus minutes and try to score last. They can't stop Kansas City.

8:04 p.m.: Welp, the Patriots score a touchdown, and with the scoreboard reading 37-33, they're back to covering the spread thanks to Brady's rushing TD. However, there's an eternity left and Mahomes is on fire.

8:11 p.m.: Finally, the Patriots force a punt. A touchdown here would be monumental.

8:18 p.m.: The Pats have to settle for a field goal late in the fourth to go ahead 40-33.

8:21 p.m.: The Chiefs score a touchdown one play later, and now it's 40-40.

8:26 p.m.: On the final drive, New England gets inside the Chiefs' 10-yard line. The Patriots let the clock tick down and set up Stephen Gostkowski for a field goal, and he hits the chip shot to secure a 43-40 victory. They scored that much and don't cover? Vomit.

  • Chargers-Browns OVER 46
  • Bills-Texans OVER 41
  • Falcons -3
  • Patriots -3.5

Goodnight, farewell, and R.I.P to a 9-0 over streak that will have to start fresh next weekend.

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