Fantasy: 7 bust candidates to avoid in your draft (Updated)
Get ready for your season with theScore's 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
In an effort to save you from the frustration that comes with a disappointing fantasy pick, here are this year's top bust candidates.
Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator and is based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.
More from this series
- Breakouts to target
- Busts to avoid
- Sleepers to steal
- Risky picks to gamble on
- Bounce-back candidates
- Super-deep sleepers
- Players who will lead you to a title
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers
Before you lose your mind after seeing the NFL's newest golden boy on this list, take a breath and read the rest of this paragraph. The issue here is the heavy investment it will take to acquire Jimmy G's services. The former Patriot went undefeated in his five starts after joining the 49ers, bringing hope to the franchise and capturing the hearts of fantasy owners in the process. But Garoppolo was just 13th among passers with an average of 16.4 fantasy points per contest during that stretch. Meanwhile, his on-pace stats from those performances project out to a 19-touchdown campaign, and yet he's going off the board between annual QB1 finishers Cam Newton and Kirk Cousins. Considering Garoppolo plays fantasy's deepest position, there's no reason to spend an eighth-rounder on an unproven talent when you can find quarterbacks with just as much upside later in the draft.
Bust Potential: ☠☠☠
ADP: 8th round (QB9)
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
Prescott outproduced expectations in his first two NFL seasons, finishing as a top-10 fantasy quarterback each year. However, to hit that mark again, he'll need to make the most of a completely retooled receiving corps missing stalwarts Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Both players were on the wrong side of their primes, but they provided Prescott with reliable targets. He'll now enter the season with an unproven group that includes Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, and third-round rookie Michael Gallup. Prescott topped 190 yards just three times over the final 10 games of last season and was held without a passing touchdown in six of those outings. If that isn't enough to scare you away, at least make sure to draft another passer to pair with him.
Bust Potential: ☠☠☠☠
ADP: 13th round (QB20)
LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills
McCoy is an all-world talent who carried the Bills' offense over the last three seasons. That task will be much more burdensome in 2018 with uncertainty surrounding him both on and off the field. The police and the NFL are currently investigating a home invasion during which McCoy's ex-girlfriend was beaten and robbed. McCoy refused to answer questions on the matter when he arrived for training camp, though he expressed confidence that he'll be able to play this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo is dealing with a quarterback competition between an underdeveloped rookie and a career backup, the departure of the entire left side of the team's once-steady offensive line, and one of the worst receiving corps in the league. The loss of dual-threat pivot Tyrod Taylor will also be a loss for McCoy's fantasy prospects. Shady will see as many touches as he can handle, but entering his age-30 season, it's safe to question whether he'll be able to maintain his production over a full 16-game schedule while facing so many impediments.
Bust Potential: ☠☠☠☠☠
ADP: 3rd round (RB17)
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
If you open the window and listen closely, you'll be sure to hear the distant cries of Henry owners exclaiming, "This was supposed to be the year!" But instead of letting Henry be the workhorse, the Titans decided to sign Dion Lewis, who was the RB12 in fantasy a year ago with the Patriots. How Tennessee's new coaching staff plans to divide touches is still unclear, but Lewis is far too dynamic to be marginalized in a passing-down role. That means Henry will again be sharing the backfield, which caps his upside and could even result in him being the second-most valuable fantasy back on his own team. So much for that breakout season.
Bust Potential: ☠☠☠
ADP: 3rd round (RB16)
Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns
The move to Cleveland helped Landry land a massive contract, but fantasy owners are often guilty of being too optimistic when it comes to players on new teams. Some regression is likely coming for Landry, who's unlikely to see the kind of volume that made him a fantasy star with the Dolphins. And even though he led the NFL with 112 receptions in 2017, he failed to eclipse 1,000 yards, largely due to his average targeted air yards, which ranked among the lowest in the league for qualified receivers - a full 3 yards behind most of the league's top wideouts. Regression is also coming for his nine touchdowns, which will be hard to repeat for a player who never had more than five scores before last season. Unless you believe Josh Gordon will miss the entire year, or that Cleveland will deploy Landry in a completely fresh way - as a full-time receiver out wide - it's foolish to pay up for him.
Bust Potential: ☠☠☠☠
ADP: 6th round (WR29)
Devin Funchess, WR, Panthers
Funchess is coming off a breakout season during which he posted 840 yards and eight touchdowns for the Panthers. Those numbers were made possible thanks to the lack of experience and skill among Carolina's receiving corps, along with Greg Olsen's foot injury, which held the Pro Bowl tight end under 30 yards during six of the seven games he appeared in. But Olsen is now back to full health and the Panthers reloaded at receiver by drafting D.J. Moore in the first round and by bringing in field-stretching veteran Torrey Smith. Funchess should still play a big part as one of Newton's favorite options, but the table is no longer set for him to eat alone.
Bust Potential: ☠☠☠☠
ADP: 7th round (WR33)
Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins
Reed has never played a full 16-game schedule, so it wasn't surprising to see him miss time in 2017. A variety of injuries limited the Redskins star to a career-low six appearances and left fantasy owners wondering if they can ever trust him in their lineups again. When healthy, Reed's per-game fantasy stats can match up with any player his position, including Rob Gronkowski, but he's already missed practice time this year after having toe surgery. The masochists among us might be willing to roll the dice on Reed this season, but most fantasy owners should avoid the year-long headache and look elsewhere for a starting tight end.
Bust Potential: ☠☠☠☠☠
ADP: 8th round (TE10)
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)