Covers.com is the biggest and best source for sports betting information, providing unrivaled and original content sports bettors cannot live without.
It may be the most wonderful time of the year as it relates to holidays, but it’s not so great for bookmakers and bettors trying to figure out the volatility of NFL Week 17. All 16 games on the final-week docket roll out today, and Covers has you covered on all the action and line movement, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst with CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5
Both these teams have something to play for today, but Atlanta has to have this game to be certain of a shot at defending its NFC championship. The Falcons (9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS) won five of six to get back into playoff contention, but in Week 16 once again saw their high-octane offense sputter, losing 23-13 at New Orleans as a 5.5-point underdog.
Carolina is currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC and will definitely be in the postseason, but could still win the NFC South and – if everything fell right – move up to the No. 2 seed. The Panthers (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) have won three in a row and seven of eight (6-2 ATS), escaping at home against Tampa Bay last week when Cam Newton’s last-minute touchdown secured a 22-19 victory as a 10-point chalk.
CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, have seen this game develop into a Pros vs. Joes clash over the past couple of days. On Thursday morning, almost all the account and over-the-counter pointspread play was on Carolina. That changed by Saturday night.
“Two times more Carolina money on account, and 75 percent of over-the-counter money on Atlanta,” Bernanke said.
TopBet.eu opened Atlanta -3.5 last Sunday, went to 4 Monday and bounced between 3.5 and 4 the past two days.
“It is easily the most attractive game for the final week of the 2017 regular season,” Jerome said, noting his shop hasn’t seen much sharp action.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans – Open: -6; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5
Tennessee is desperate to win and secure an AFC playoff berth, doing itself no favors by losing the last three weeks. The Titans (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) were 5.5-point home pups against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16 and came up a little short, losing 27-23.
Conversely, Jacksonville has nothing to play for, locked into the No. 3 seed as the AFC South champion, though coach Doug Marrone insisted he won’t rest his starters today. Perhaps the Jaguars (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS) need a playoff tuneup, as they gave up oodles of points to Jimmy Garoppolo and San Francisco last week in a 44-33 loss as a 4-point fave.
“It’s been all Jacksonville money, on account and over the counter,” Bernanke said. “Eight-five percent of account money on Jacksonville, and 75 percent of over-the-counter money on Jacksonville as well. Sharps and public are on Jacksonville.
“Tennessee hasn’t inspired much faith with what they’ve done the past few weeks, so I think bettors have taken note of that. And Jacksonville wants to go into the playoffs on a good note after getting torched by Jimmy G last week.”
TopBet.eu opened the Titans -6, dropped to -4.5 Tuesday on sharp Jags action and have been at -3 since Wednesday.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -1.5; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: +2; Move: +2.5; Move: +3; Move: +3.5; Move: +4
Los Angeles has the NFC West and the No. 4 playoff seed wrapped up, and still had a shot at the No. 3 seed, but coach Sean McVay is taking no chances with his stars, resting quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley among others. The Rams (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) edged Tennessee 27-23 giving 5.5 points on the road in Week 16.
San Francisco is reveling in Jimmy Garoppolo, winning all four starts behind the new QB (3-1 ATS). The 49ers (5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS) had their highest scoring output of the year last week, dumping Jacksonville 44-33 catching 4 points at home.
“Everyone wants to join the Jimmy G party. It’s all San Francisco money in this game,” Bernanke said of pointspread betting. “Five times more San Francisco money on account, and 85 percent of over-the-counter money on San Francisco. Sharps and public are all over San Fran.”
TopBet.eu opened L.A. even higher, at -6.5, with sharp Niners play early Tuesday dropping the number to 4. As the Goff/Gurley news evolved, the line moved from Rams -4 to 49ers -3.5 in a span of 28 hours, from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday night. The line ultimately got to 49ers -4 on Saturday.
“What a fantastic return on investment Jimmy Garoppolo has been for San Francisco,” Jerome said. “As a result of St. Louis deciding to rest Goff and Gurley, the 49ers became a popular play with wiseguys.”
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -14; Move: -13.5; Move: -13; Move: -11; Move: -8; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -6
Pittsburgh helped generate some huge line movement this week, as well, with news Thursday that QB Ben Roethlisberger and running back Le’Veon Bell likely wouldn’t play. The Steelers (12-3 SU, 7-8 ATS) still have an outside shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but would need New England to lose at home to the New York Jets, and apparently coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t see that happening.
Last Monday, Pittsburgh rebounded from a costly home loss to the Patriots by routing Houston 34-6 as an 8-point road chalk.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is trying to not join the 2008 Detroit Lions as the only teams in NFL history to go 0-16. The Browns (0-15 SU, 3-12 ATS) fell to Chicago 20-3 getting 5.5 points on the road in Week 16.
“You normally wouldn’t talk this much about the Browns this late in the season, but they’re trying to avoid an 0-16 season and a 1-32 two-year stretch, which would be the worst in the 16-game era,” Bernanke said.
Early sharp action on the Browns, prior to the Steelers’ decision to pull back the reins, had already dropped the line from Pittsburgh -14 to -11. After the announcement, the game came off the board and was reposted at 8, with Cleveland bettors continuing to pile on.
“Six times more Cleveland money on account, and fairly even over the counter,” Bernanke said. “Sharps are on the Browns, and the public is split.”
