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Put “smiling through your teeth” and “bullshit excitement” up there with holiday traditions such as baking cookies and watching A Christmas Carol (pick your favorite version. Hint: Scrooged is the correct answer).
We’ve all been there: a sleepy Christmas morning and someone hands you a gift. A quick shake has potential scores dancing in your head.
“Could it be an Apple Watch or maybe the keys to a new ride-on lawn mower?!”
You tear into the parcel only to find … a silver pen set.
“What the hell do I need a pen for? We use computers for everything and if I need a pen, I’ll just steal one from work!“
But on the outside, your eyebrows are raised, your lifeless eyes are wide, and that half-assed grin on your face is about as convincing as a Steelers’ “fake spike.”
That’s the thing about Christmas, and picking NFL underdogs this late in the season: you just don’t know what you’re going to get.
But, unlike Xmas, when you have to chew back your disappointment and feign appreciation for a crappy present, you can LET IT ALL OUT when you pick a rotten underdog. And what better time to shout profanities at the tiny athletes on our TV screens than the holidays.
Giving each and every NFL Week 16 underdog a good shake before betting them didn’t help too much in weeding out the Apple Watches from the pen sets. However, there is one pup with the most potential and that’s the Atlanta Falcons catching 5.5 points in New Orleans on Christmas Eve.
The Falcons have the inside track when it comes to the final NFC Wild Card spot, jumping ahead of the Lions, Cowboys, and Seahawks with a tricky win in Tampa Bay on Monday night. Atlanta can still claim the NFC South title if it wins out against the Saints and Panthers in the final two weeks and it knocked off New Orleans 20-17 as a 2.5-point home favorite two weeks ago.
The Saints have watched their wheels wobble since rolling out eight straight wins. New Orleans is 2-2 SU in its last four contests but just 1-3 ATS in that span. The Saints didn’t look sharp against the Jets as 16.5-point chalk last Sunday and have been careless with the football, totaling five turnovers over their last three games, including three against New York. This team had only 11 turnovers through its first 11 games.
The underdog has been the smart play in past meetings between the Falcons and Saints, with the pup going 7-1 ATS in their last eight encounters. I missed the +6 but still think Atlanta +5.5 is good value – much better value than that tie clip you’re about to open.
Pick: Falcons +5.5
Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+6.5, 48.5)
There’s no place like home for the holidays, especially if you’re the Tennessee Titans.
Since losing to Oakland at home in Week 1, the Titans have whipped off five straight wins inside Nissan Stadium and play their final two games of the schedule in front of the Music City faithful, including a Week 16 date with the L.A. Rams.
Tennessee, which finished 2-6 SU on the road (wins over Cleveland and Indianapolis - whoopee!), scores 26 points per home game – compared to only 17.5 ppg on the road – and allows 21.3 points against as a host – compared to 23.9 ppg against as a visitor. That's an average winning margin of almost five points at home.
The Titans are holding on to an AFC Wild Card berth for dear life and return home after back-to-back losses on the road. Tennessee’s stock is way down after losing at San Francisco last Sunday, but that was also the team’s fourth away game in five weeks. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has been given the keys to the offense, with the Titans going no-huddle in Week 15, and we may finally see this offense – and all its weapons - live up to its potential.
Pick: Titans +6.5
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 38)
Christmas is the time for miracles. Don’t believe that? Take a look at what the winless Cleveland Browns did on Xmas Eve last year.
At 0-14, Cleveland welcomed the then-San Diego Chargers to Ohio on a chilly December 24 and gave its loyal fans the best Christmas gift of all … a win.
A year later, the Browns find themselves in a similar situation, staring down a goose egg in the win column with only two games remaining and a December 24 matchup in Chicago on the schedule.
Perhaps the only team playing down to the Browns’ level at this point are the Bears. Chicago has dropped six of its last seven, posting a 1-5-1 ATS mark in that span. And just like Cleveland, Da Bears are riding a rookie quarterback to the finish line – despite turnover troubles.
Mitch Trubisky tossed three interceptions in last week’s loss to Detroit and has three touchdowns to five INTs over his last four games. Those putrid numbers are pretty comparable to Browns first-year passer DeShone Kizer, who has four TDs and five picks in his last four outings.
Can lightning strike twice on Christmas Eve? I don’t know. But I don’t think Chicago should be a 6.5-point favorite against anyone at this time.
Pick: Browns +6.5
Happy holidays.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 20-24 ATS
