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Feels like -22.
For those of you state side, that means the temperature outside my door right now feels like -8. Welcome to metric winter in the Great White North.
On days like this, the best plan of attack is not to attack. Cower from the harsh December elements. Hide from the brittle north winds. Set up shop on the comfiest couch you can find and pound hours and hours of Christmas movies into your skull until the “holiday spirit” makes that lifeless frozen tundra beyond your window look like a god damn Winter Wonderland. Booze also helps...
Since the weather outside is frightful – like "Terrell Suggs closing in on your blindside" kind of frightful – and the December 25 holiday is closing in, I’ve been watching a lot of Christmas movies in my limited downtime. That binge viewing has me connecting my NFL Underdogs selections for Week 15 to a few classic Xmas flicks.
So, in the spirit of the season – as well as the spirit of not wanting to go outside in the winter – here are my NFL betting picks for Week 15...
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+8, 40)
The 2017 season has pretty much been a spin on It’s a Wonderful Life, with the New York Giants getting a taste of what football would be like if Odell Beckham Jr. didn't exist. Much like the drab dystopia that Bedford Falls transforms into without George Bailey as its moral compass, New York has excreted a 2-11 SU record (5-8 ATS) without OBJ, losing the playmaking wideout in Week 5.
But while things are bad in East Rutherford, they don’t compare to the mood three hours down the Jersey Turnpike. Philadelphia is still digesting the loss of MVP-candidate quarterback Carson Wentz, who was sidelined for the season with a torn ACL last Sunday. Wentz was really hitting his stride for the Eagles offense, striking a lethal balance between pass and run for the team over the past three games.
Now, with backup Nick Foles under center, expect Philadelphia to go back to a ground-and-pound approach. The Eagles have a potent trio in Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement, ranked second in rushing yards per game and fourth in yards per carry. That run-heavy playbook will chew up a ton of clock and keep scoring low, which gives value to the G-Men at this big spread.
Last week’s loss to Dallas was much closer than the 30-10 final score indicates, with the Cowboys scoring two garbage-time touchdowns to seal the victory. And the Giants have shown some teeth in recent contests – despite all the Eli Manning drama and coaching issues – picking up a win over Kansas City and a cover against Oakland (with Geno Smith under center).
In Week 15, New York gets a rattled Eagles squad playing their third straight road game with a dumbed-down playbook. The lookahead line before Wentz’s injury was Eagles -9, which makes you do a doubletake considering that spread only dropped a point after the events of last Sunday.
You don’t need Clarence the guardian angel to show you there’s value with the Giants here.
Pick: Giants +8
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+2, 46)
If you’re not a big believer in home-field advantage, just ask Kevin McCallister about playing on familiar turf.
In Home Alone, Kevin whooped ass against Harry and Marv inside his own house, booby trapping every square inch. But once he escaped to the neighbor’s place, that’s when the “Wet Bandits” caught up with him and would’ve bitten all of his fingers off if not for Old Man Marley coming through with a pair of shovel shots – WWE style.
Home-field advantage may not be worth as much as it used to be, but there are select spots around the NFL that definitely give the host team an edge. Arrowhead Stadium in mid-December is one of those spots. Despite a wonky season, Kansas City is 4-2 ATS at home in 2017 and coming off its best effort since October 30, putting one on the rival Raiders 26-15 as a 4.5-point home chalk. That win would have been even more impressive if not for some bad drops in the end zone and a penalty that took a score off the board.
The Chiefs welcome the Chargers to Arrowhead Saturday night, when temperatures will dip around freezing and a frenzied primetime crowd – that doesn’t have to work in the morning – will be well oiled and ringing in the ears of Philip Rivers and the Bolts offense. Kansas City is 9-2 ATS in primetime games at home since 2006, including two SU and ATS victories on Monday Night Football at home this season.
Do yourself a favor and take the points, “you filthy animal”.
Pick: Chiefs +2
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4.5, 43)
Despite all logic, the Arizona Cardinals are alive and kicking. There must have been some magic in Bruce Arians’ Kangol hat, because Arizona is remarkably 6-7 despite everything that has happened to this team in 2017 and not yet out of the playoff picture.
Now, the Cardinals have Frosty the Snowman’s chances in hell – or the Arizona desert – of making the wild card, with either a single loss or a Seattle win in the final three weeks officially knocking them out. But, as they showed with a grimy 12-9 victory against Tennessee last Sunday, the Cards aren’t calling it quits.
Arizona has been a solid wager in the second half of the schedule, going 4-2 ATS (depending on where you got the Week 10 Seattle line: +6.5 covered/+6 pushed). The Cardinals have opened games with pop, outscoring opponents 61-57 in the first half over that six-game span despite being an underdog in all but one of those contests.
Washington enters Week 15 off back-to-back losses on the road, mustering only 27 total points in those defeats. The Redskins have been very slow out of the gates in their last three games, putting up an average of 5.3 points in the first two quarters while allowing 14.3 points against per first half in that stretch.
After two blowout losses, Washington could have a tough time lifting its head up should it go down early to the Cardinals. Be a “Jolly Happy Soul” and grab the 4.5 points with Arizona on the road.
Pick: Cardinals +4.5
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 18-23 ATS
Jason Logan is the senior managing editor for Covers.com. You can tell him how much his NFL underdog picks suck on Twitter @CoversJlo.
