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The NFL is into its final four weeks of the regular season, and key games dot the Week 14 Sunday slate. Covers checks in on the action and line movement with Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Scott Kaminsky, director of offshore sportsbook TheGreek.com.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers – Open: +1.5; Move: +2.5; Move: +3; Move: +2.5
Week after week, Minnesota continues to keep its status as the most surprising team of 2017. The Vikings (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS), behind a stout defense and third-string quarterback Case Keenum, shut down defending NFC champion Atlanta in Week 13, winning 14-9 as a 2-point road underdog.
Carolina was on a nice four-game SU and ATS run that put it well into playoff contention in the NFC. However, the Panthers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) hit a bump last week at New Orleans, losing 31-21 as a 5.5-point pup.
“Minnesota holding Atlanta to 9 points on (the Falcons’) home field, that was impressive to say the least,” Bernanke said. “We’re getting all sharp money on Carolina. The public is backing Minnesota right now.”
Bernanke said CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, were seeing 95 percent of account money on the Panthers, and 80 percent of over-the-counter cash on the Vikings. So this 1 p.m. ET game definitely has a strong Pros vs. Joes element.
TheGreek.com also opened Minnesota -1.5 and has been at 2.5 since Monday morning. Kaminsky said the Panthers are among The Greek’s bigger needs today.
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: -3; Move: -2.5
Jacksonville is another surprising team, tied atop the AFC South with Tennessee after winning four of its last five games. The Jaguars (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) rolled over Indianapolis 30-10 last week as a 10-point home favorite.
Seattle (8-4 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) is still a game behind the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West heading into this 4:25 p.m. ET start. The Seahawks ended Philadelphia’s nine-game winning streak last week, posting a 24-10 home win as a 3.5-point ‘dog.
“Seattle will be in every sharp guy’s teaser,” Kaminsky said, while noting for the moment, his shop needs the Seahawks.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams – Open: +2; Move: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -1; Move: Pick
As noted above, Philadelphia had its torrid 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS run halted last week, losing 24-10 at Seattle as a 3.5-point road chalk. The Eagles (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) didn’t go home though, smartly opting to head straight to Los Angeles and spend the week there for this 4:25 p.m. ET clash.
Los Angeles (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) lost at Minnesota three weeks ago, but proved it’s still legitimate by bouncing back with SU and ATS wins against New Orleans and at Arizona. Last week, the Rams doubled up the Cardinals 32-16 laying 7.5 points.
This line has moved all over, and on Thursday, Bernanke said it was actually looking like a Pros vs. Joes, with sharps on the Rams and the public on Philly. But the line move since then toward the Eagles has changed that dynamic.
“Eighty-five percent of dollars wagered on account backing the Eagles, and 80 percent of over-the-counter money also backing the Eagles,” Bernanke said. “Sharps and public on Philly.”
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -4.5
Pittsburgh is coming off a literal knock-down, drag-out Monday night game at Cincinnati, and now gets another AFC North rival in another prime-time contest, in the Sunday nighter at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Steelers (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) have ripped off seven consecutive SU wins (4-3 ATS), rallying from 17-0 down to best the Bengals 23-20 on a final-seconds field goal as a 4.5-point road fave.
Baltimore (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has quietly climbed back above .500 to get into the AFC playoff picture. The Ravens steamrolled Detroit 44-20 giving 2.5 points at home last week, winning for the fourth time in five games (3-1-1 ATS).
“It’s even on account, while there’s two times more Baltimore money over the counter,” Bernanke said of activity at CG. “Sharps are split, while the public is backing Baltimore.”
Kaminsky said The Greek will need the Steelers, primarily due to sharp play. Pittsburgh opened -6 and had dropped to -4.5 by Thursday night.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4
Kansas City has completely hit the skids, putting in jeopardy its hopes of winning the AFC West, after it looked impervious during a 5-0 SU and ATS start to the season. The Chiefs (6-6 SU and ATS) have dumped four in a row on the field and at the betting window, tumbling to the New York Jets 38-31 last week as a 4-point road chalk.
Oakland had a bumpy first half of the season, but might be getting things in order after winning three of four. The Raiders (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) held off the New York Giants 24-17 in Week 12 as a hefty 10-point home favorite.
CG books opened the Chiefs -4 last Sunday and ticked down to 3.5 within a couple of hours, then to 3 for a cup of coffee on Monday. But by Thursday afternoon, the line had surged back to K.C. -4 for this 1 p.m. ET meeting.
“Ninety percent of money on K.C. on account and over the counter, so sharps and public are backing K.C.,” Bernanke said. “This could be one of our biggest liabilities.”
