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Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38.5)
The Bengals became only the third team leading by 10 or more points entering the fourth quarter to lose a game outright. NFL teams taking a 10-point or greater lead into the final frame are still 87-3 on the season.
Having trouble putting up points on the board in the second half isn’t a new problem for the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks 30th in third quarter scoring (2.5 points) and 31st in fourth quarter scoring (3.4 points).
LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Bengals favored by six points although a few spots in Vegas went with 5.5 instead. The spread seems to be holding at 6.5 at most locations. The total opened at 37 and has been bet up to 38.5.
TRENDS:
*The Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
*The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 40.5)
The Vikings’ stopper unit ranks second in scoring defense and total defense after its smothering of the Atlanta Falcons last weekend. Julio Jones caught just two passes for 24 yards a week after hauling in 12 catches for 253 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan totaled his fewest passing yards in a game (173) since 2013 and the Vikings kept the Falcons from hitting double digits.
Minnesota’s offense isn’t as prolific but the unit is being efficient with its scoring opportunities. The Vikings have scored touchdowns in 14 of their last 15 trips inside the red zone.
LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Vikings listed as 1-point away faves and the line has crept up to a 3-point spread at many shops. The total opened as high as 42 and has moved down to 40.5.
TRENDS:
*The Vikings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
*The over is 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 games.
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 44.5)
It’s not a huge sample but Jimmy Garoppolo improved to 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the three games he’s started as a pro quarterback in the NFL. He would have started against the Texans last season as a member of the Patriots but picked up an injury the previous week against Dolphins. He would have studied the Pats’ game plan for attacking Houston’s defense. That might help him in his preparation for this weekend’s game.
LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as a 1.5-point home fave and has been bet up to 3-point chalk. The total has also moved up from 42.5 to 44.
TRENDS:
*The under is 4-1 in the Niners’ last five games.
*The over is 4-1 in the Texans’ last five home games.
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3, 40.5)
The Browns front-office shakeup shouldn’t affect much on the field – only that head coach Hue Jackson now knows he’s not coaching for his job the rest of the season. Cleveland Browns owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam assured the media Jackson would be the team’s head coach in 2018 despite his abysmal win-loss record (1-27) over the past two years.
LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as large as 4-point favorites but the spread has dropped in favor of the home team. The total opened at 41 and has come down to 40 at some locations.
TRENDS:
*The Browns are 6-21-1 ATS under head coach Hue Jackson.
*The over is 8-1 in the Packers’ last nine road games.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 48.5)
The Chiefs will not have their top cornerback for an important interdivision game against the Oakland Raiders. Kansas City suspended DB Marcus Peters for his late-game antics when he tossed a flag thrown by a game official into the stands.
The Chiefs own one of the worst pass defenses in the league and their second cornerback, Darrelle Revis, was a street free agent a few weeks ago. The Raiders accumulated 417 passing yards in their home win against KC earlier this season.
LINE HISTORY: This spread is kind of in no-man’s land. Offshore and Vegas sportsbooks all opened above the key number (3) but some went high (4.5) and others went low (3.5). The spread is still hopping between 3.5 and 4.5, and it’s hard to tell whether the steam is moving the line up or down.
TRENDS:
*The Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
*The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The under is 18-7 in the last 25 matchups between these two sides.
Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 44)
Arizona’s offense is struggling finding reliable receiving targets outside of future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. The 34-year-old leads the Cards in catches with 82 – which is five more than the rest of the team’s receivers combined. Game planning to slow down a passing attack becomes much easier for opposing teams when there’s only one pass-catching threat on the field.
LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 3-point away faves and the spread hasn’t moved since. The total opened at 44 and has moved down a half or full point depending on where the book.
TRENDS:
*The Titans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.
*The Cards are 5-15-1 ATS against teams with winning records.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 41.5)
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott didn’t seem to be bothered by the hand he injured last Thursday against the Redskins. More good news for Dallas backers: Linebacker Sean Lee is expected to his return on Sunday after missing the last three games with a sore hamstring. The Cowboys are 18-4 straight up and 15-7 ATS in the last 22 games he’s suited up and played.
LINE HISTORY: Books opened with the Giants getting six points when it was still thought Geno Smith would be under center for New York. The spread shrunk by 2.5 points once Eli Manning was renamed the starting quarterback.
TRENDS:
*The under is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five games.
*The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+1.5, 41.5)
The Broncos can’t make up their mind as to who their starting quarterback should be moving forward and it’s easy to tell why they are so confused. Denver is second last in pass completion percentage (57.5), third last in yards per attempt (5.7) and second last in interceptions thrown per game (1.5).
LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 1-point faves but the line flipped to Jets -1. The total opened at 40.5 and moved up to 41.5.
TRENDS:
*The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
*The Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.
Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers (-6, 46.5)
The Chargers opened the season 0-4 and were as large as 50/1 longshots to win the AFC West after Week 4. But thanks to the Bolts’ 6-2 bounce back and the Chiefs’ collapse they’re now +150 to win their division. LA plays at KC next Saturday in a game that could decision who wins the AFC West.
LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Chargers installed as 6.5-point home chalk and the spread has come down a half point at most shops.
TRENDS:
*The Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
*The over is 25-8 in Washington’s last 33 games.
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 40)
The Seahawks are the most penalized team in the league this season with a good chunk of those flags coming by way of offensive holding (19) and false starts (18). The Jags own the league’s best pass rush 45 sacks despite blitzing on only 17.9 percent of their defensive snaps according to the Florida Times-Union.
LINE HISTORY: The Jags opened as 3-point home faves but have dropped down a half point to 2.5. The total opened 39 and has gone as high as 40.
TRENDS:
*The Seahawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games.
*The under is 5-1 in Jacksonville’s last six games.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 48)
The Rams had to alter their practice schedule this week because of the wildfires in surrounding areas. The wind blew smoke in the direction of the Rams’ practice facility on Wednesday forcing the team to do a light walkthrough at a gym on Cal Lutheran University’s campus.
“This time of the year, it actually served us well,” Rams coach Sean McVay told reporters. “We got a lot of good work in, got more reps than we would’ve otherwise than when you just do your walk-through and your normal practice.”
LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 1-point faves and many books now list them as 2-point chalk. The total opened as high as 51 and has moved down three points to 48.
TRENDS:
*The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The over is 14-4 in the Eagles’ last 18 road games.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 43.5)
The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against the Steelers. Keeping All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown in check is a big reason why Baltimore fares so well against its division rival.
Brown is averaging just 5.5 catches for 62 yards in 14 career games against the Ravens – and he’s only found pay dirt three times against the Ravens. That being said, Baltimore will not have its top cornerback, Jimmy Smith, on the field on Sunday because of a PED suspension and an injury.
LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 6-point faves but the line dropped to 4.5. The total seems to be settling around 43 and 43.5.
TRENDS:
*The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 AFC North games.
*The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.
