The landscape in the AFC and NFC couldn’t be more different.
Teams that are playing at a playoff level will be left out of the NFC tournament while, on the other side, at least one questionable AFC team is going to be playing in the postseason. Nonetheless, the picture is crystallizing and there are a few key matchups this Sunday that could have strong implications.
Saints at Rams
Aaron Donald vs. Saints' interior offensive line
The Rams just lost in Minnesota last week and are now 7-3 with a difficult schedule ahead of them. The Saints record is one game better, but both teams sit atop their respective division with a one-game lead. It is safe to say that both franchises have exceeded preseason expectations.
We know Drew Brees is still a premier quarterback, but it has been the combination of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara that have become the foundation of the Saints offense. But, what can be lost about this group is that New Orleans' offensive line could be the best in football.
Donald is the best interior defensive player in the NFL and should be the front-runner for Defensive MVP honors. Whether he receives the award or not, Donald is a dominant player week after week. Wade Phillips does a great job of getting his best player in advantageous matchups and while New Orleans offensive line is excellent, right guard Larry Warford is probably the weakest link.
Next to Warford is rookie Ryan Ramczyk, who has done well in his first season, but hasn’t seen anyone like Donald in his short career. Expect Donald to spend a lot of time lined up on Warford’s outside shoulder and attacking the gap between Warford and Ramczyk. Donald is capable of wrecking New Orleans’ offense.
Dolphins at Patriots
Brandin Cooks vs. Xavien Howard
It is probably a stretch to say that Miami is a playoff contender considering how they are playing. The Dolphins have lost four in a row, but are only one game back of the wild-card race in the underwhelming AFC. If they could pull off the upset in New England, the Dolphins can revive their season.
This is just the first of two matchups between Miami and New England, and therefore between Howard and Cooks. Cooks will not always align in the same location, but usually lines up to Tom Brady's left side. Howard is the Dolphins right cornerback and will often get help in trying to slow down Cooks, especially with Chris Hogan unlikely to play in Week 12.
New England is throwing deep at a high percentage and Howard is having a rough season. But, Howard is a talented young man with a size advantage over Cooks and Miami could generate some pass-rush to make long developing routes difficult for Brady and Cooks. Considering how both teams are playing, maybe that is wishful thinking on Miami’s part.
But in order to save their season and stay competitive on Sunday, Howard cannot afford to let Cooks get behind him as a gamebreaker. Cooks had two catches last week of 52 yards or longer and Miami has allowed far too many deep completions this season. Tackling also has been a problem for Howard, which could come into play on Cooks’ shorter receptions. This is a dangerous receiver that must be contained. That task falls on Howard.
Packers at Steelers
Davante Adams vs. Coty Sensabaugh
The Packers' season has flatlined after Aaron Rodgers went down with injury. But, Rodgers could conceivably return late in the year, and if Green Bay - currently at 5-5 - can tread water in the meantime, Rodgers might just save the season. The Steelers have a history of playing down to “lesser opponents,” but such instances usually occur on the road. And, Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger's record in prime-time games is impeccable.
There has not been many bright spots of late in Green Bay’s offense, but Adams certainly qualifies as one. Adams has stepped his game up this year and is clearly Brett Hundley's most trusted and dangerous target. Since Hundley took over, Adams has accounted for a high percentage of Green Bay’s production in the passing game.
Pittsburgh has a great defense, but they have started to allow big plays in the passing game over the past three weeks. Artie Burns is a talented player, but consistently has mental gaffes and is susceptible to biting on double moves. The Steelers don’t flip their cornerbacks, and with Joe Haden sidelined, it will be Sensabaugh lined up exclusively at left corner with Burns on the right side.
Sensabaugh has held up well with Haden out of the lineup, but is certainly at a disadvantage against Adams. The Packers will align Adams all over the formation, but most of his snaps come to Hundley’s right side, which will pit him against Sensabaugh most of the time. To pull off the upset, Adams must explode on Sunday night. That is a possibility.
Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns and spent 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast." Find him on Twitter @WilliamsonNFL.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
