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Thanksgiving is a day where the plate can often runneth over. Turkey, stuffing, cranberry sauce, candied yams, stuffing, pumpkin pie, stuffing. Oh, and stuffing. Don’t forget stuffing. Plus, you have to save enough space to put three NFL games on your plate. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for this trio of Week 12 games, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions – Open: Pick; Move: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5; Move: +3; Move: +2.5
Minnesota is definitely a Jack in the Box team this season, springing a big surprise despite not having its top two quarterbacks. The Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) have won six in a row on the field and five in a row at the betting window, including a 24-7 victory over the surging Los Angeles Rams as a 1-point home chalk in Week 11.
Detroit was a playoff team last year that needs to keep winning if it hopes to return. The Lions (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) followed a three-game SU and ATS skid with a three-game win streak (2-0-1 ATS), barely edging Chicago last week 27-24 as a 3-point road favorite.
“We’ve got a ton of exposure on the Vikings at this point,” Cooley said of action that at one point moved the line 3 points in Minnesota’s favor. “We're starting to see a bit of money on Detroit, so we’re expecting to see this spread come off of -3 sooner than later.”
Indeed, late Wednesday night, the number dipped to 2.5 at Bookmaker. Meanwhile, CG books also opened this 12:30 p.m. ET game at pick ‘em on Sunday, moved to Vikings -3 by Monday afternoon and stayed there until ticking to 2.5 Wednesday evening.
“We’re seeing three times more Vikings money on account and four times more Vikings money over the counter,” Bernanke said of action at CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “Sharps and public are betting Minnesota.”
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3; Move: -1; Move: +1; Move: +2; Move: +1.5
Based on the huge line movement at CG books for this game, nobody is buying what a reeling Dallas squad is selling. The Cowboys (5-5 SU and ATS) can’t score without Ezekiel Elliott, who still has four games left on his six-game suspension. In the Week 11 Sunday nighter, Dallas had a 9-7 halftime lead, then got shut out the rest of the way in a 37-9 loss as a 6-point home underdog.
After losing its first four games of the season, Los Angeles (4-6 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) has won four of six. Last week, the Chargers got five interceptions in a 54-24 waxing of Buffalo as a 7-point home fave.
“Eight times more Chargers money on account, and two times more Dallas money over the counter,” Bernanke said. “So sharps are on the Chargers, and the public is on Dallas.”
But based on the 6-point shift in the spread, the Pros are clearly overwhelming the Joes in this matchup. Bookmaker.eu opened this game a day later, on Monday, at Dallas -1 and got all the way to Chargers -2.5 by Wednesday night.
“The favorite has gone to ‘dog, and you can’t really argue the movement induced by the sharps,” Cooley said. “It’s another must-win situation for Dallas, but so was Sunday night, and we saw what happened there. Tough turnaround on a short week. We’ll get a ton of Cowboys money from the public (today), so our San Diego liability should be offset a bit.”
New York Giants at Washington Redskins – Open: -7.5; Move: -7
Twice this season, New York has been a double-digit underdog, and both times, the G-Men won outright. The second of those upsets came last week, when the Giants (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) won a slog with Kansas City 12-9 as a 10-point pup.
Washington had a great opportunity to pull off an upset last week, too, but blew a 15-point lead over the final six minutes of the fourth quarter. The Redskins, who went off as 9.5-point ‘dogs, ended up losing 34-31 in overtime.
“It feels like the smart play here is New York and the points. The Giants have nothing to lose, and the loss Washington suffered to the Saints had to be incredibly deflating,” Cooley said. “We haven’t taken a ton of smart money on this one, but the bit we have taken has been on the dog.”
CG books also opened New York -7.5 and dropped to 7 by Monday in what’s evolving into a Pros vs. Joes matchup.
“Two times more New York Giants money on account, and three times more Washington money over the counter,” Bernanke said. “Sharps are on New York, and the public is on Washington.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
