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Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off with a trio of Thanksgiving Day games, although only one of those matchups appears to be worth pulling you away from the kitchen or the dining room table. Covers checks in on the opening line for that contest and three others this week, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (pick)
Minnesota continues to get it done on the field and at the betting window, winning six in a row while cashing in the last five. The Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) pulled away from the Los Angeles Rams in the second half Sunday, nabbing a 24-7 victory as a 1-point home favorite.
Detroit (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) followed a three-game skid with a three-game win streak (2-0-1 ATS), though it was a struggle to get that last one. The Lions went to Chicago as a 3-point chalk and twice trailed by 10, but rallied for a 27-24 victory.
Bookmaker.eu opened the game pick ‘em, but the Vikings moved to -1.5 late Sunday night for the first game on Turkey Day, a 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“The Lions can’t afford to fall behind here, as they seemingly do week after week,” Cooley said. “Minnesota has proven to be one of the best teams in the NFC, but Detroit is a quality club as well. It feels like the public will be on the chalk, but sharps may side with the home squad. We’ll just wait and see where this one goes.”
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Two of the NFL’s more surprising teams this season get together, with New Orleans riding a huge hot streak to the top of the NFC South. The Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) lost their first two games, but have ripped off eight in a row since (7-1 ATS). The only game New Orleans didn’t cash in during that stretch came Sunday, a 34-31 home overtime victory against Washington laying 9.5 points.
Los Angeles (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) had its four-game SU and ATS run halted at the hands of another surprise team, Minnesota. The Rams were in a 7-7 tie on the road at halftime, but scored no more in a 24-7 setback as a 1-point underdog.
“I maintain that the Saints aren’t as good as their record indicates, but the public loves to play them each and every week,” Cooley said. “Meanwhile, the Rams’ loss wasn’t as lopsided as the score looked. Everyone will be expecting a shootout here, so we pumped up the total.”
Indeed, Bookmaker opened the total at 53.5.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5)
After a bumpy first few weeks, Pittsburgh looks to be rounding into playoff form, with five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) heading into this Sunday prime-time contest. In last week’s Thursday nighter, the Steelers (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) thumped Tennessee 40-17 laying 7 points at home.
Green Bay is a shell of itself in the absence of Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone). The Packers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four and hit rock-bottom Sunday in a 23-0 home loss to Baltimore as a 2.5-point pup.
“Brett Hundley is proving why Aaron Rodgers is worth so much to a line,” Cooley said. “The current Green Bay club is in the bottom third of the NFL. Pittsburgh is gaining momentum and finally finding its footing, so we wanted to be generous with this number. It’s doubtful we see any Packers money from the public.”
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-17)
Defending Super Bowl champion New England is really dialing it up to 11. The Patriots (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won six straight, cashing the last five, including in Sunday’s 33-8 rout of Oakland as a 7-point fave in Mexico City.
Miami (4-6 SU, 3-5-2 ATS) has dumped four in row in falling below .500. The Dolphins went off as 1-point home ‘dogs to Tampa Bay on Sunday and lost 30-20. Quarterback Jay Cutler left the game with a concussion at the end of the first half, yielding to Matt Moore the rest of the way.
“There’s really no difference in terms of value between Jay Cutler and Matt Moore,” Cooley said. “It really doesn’t matter who’s under center for Miami in this game, it had to be the biggest spread of the season. Not sure what else to say here. It’s going to be ugly.”
The line actually ticked down to 16.5 Sunday evening.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
